The NFL regular season is into the final stretch, and NFL Week 13 features a Sunday Night Football matchup between the Denver Broncos and the Washington Commanders. The Broncos are listed as 6.5-point road favorites, while the total sits at 43.5 points.
The Broncos are in a great spot to make the playoffs, and they should win the division for the first time since 2015. They currently hold a two-game lead over the Chargers, while they’re three up on the Chiefs. The Broncos still have dates with both teams left on their calendar, but they’re in the driver’s seat. They’re also just a half game behind the Patriots for the top spot in the AFC, so the No. 1 seed in the playoffs is also definitely in play.
Unfortunately, things have not gone nearly as well for the Commanders. After last year’s surprise run to the NFC Championship game, they’ve taken a clear step back. Part of that stems from injuries to Jayden Daniels, who has been limited to just six games played. Daniels is expected to return at some point this season, potentially as early as next week, but the Commanders are not going anywhere this year.
Let’s dive into all the top DFS options for Sunday Night Football.
NFL DFS Stud Picks
We’ve had an elite stretch of standalone games in Week 13, but this contest isn’t the most appealing for fantasy purposes. It features the seventh-lowest total of the week, while the Commanders are implied for a paltry 18.5 points.
Bo Nix stands out as the most expensive option in this contest. He showed plenty of promise as a rookie, both in real life and fantasy-wise, but he’s taken a bit of a step back this season. He’s averaged 18.7 fantasy points per game, which is the 13th-best mark at the QB position.
That said, Nix has been a massive “boom-or-bust” QB this season. He’s had four finishes inside the top eight at the position, including a QB1 finish vs. the Giants in Week 7. He had 39.96 DraftKings points in that contest, and he has four other starts with at least 19.52.
When Nix has been bad this season, he’s been really bad. He has five starts with 13.42 DraftKings points or fewer, including two in single digits. He’s had 12.6 or fewer in back-to-back outings, so he has a much lower floor than you’d typically see in a stud fantasy QB.
Nix will be looking to get back on track vs. the Commanders, and it’s a good matchup to do so. Washington has struggled defensively this season, ranking dead last in pass defense EPA. They’ve allowed the eighth-most fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks, and Nix leads the slate with a +3.2 Opponent Plus/Minus.
The downside for Nix is where this game is being played. He’s had pretty drastic home/road splits throughout his career. He’s averaged 22.04 DraftKings points and a +2.66 Plus/Minus in his 16 home starts, but those figures drop to 16.71 and -2.48 on the road (per the Trends tool).
Add it all up, and Nix has a wide range of outcomes on this slate. There are plenty of scenarios where he crushes vs. the Commanders, but there are also plenty where the team rides its defense and Nix doesn’t have to do all that much.
It makes Nix a better Flex play than Captain selection, and that is reflected in Sim Labs. No one is projected to be more overowned at Captain, while he’s expected to be the second-most underowned Flex.
Marcus Mariota will get another start for the Commanders and, unlike Nix, he’s been very consistent so far this season. He’s made five starts, and he’s scored at least 16.42 DraftKings points in four of them. Add in his two extended relief appearances last year, and Mariota has averaged nearly 20 DraftKings points per game while filling in for Daniels.
This will be easily the toughest test of Mariota’s tenure. The Broncos have a downright elite defense. They’re currently fourth in pass defense EPA, and that probably undersells how tough this matchup is. Reigning DPOY Patrick Surtain has been out of the lineup since Week 8, but he’ll make his return vs. the Commanders. Even with Surtain missing a good chunk of the year, this team has still allowed the second-fewest fantasy points per game to opposing quarterbacks. It results in a -5.7 Opponent Plus/Minus for Mariota, which is the worst mark on the slate.
Mariota doesn’t stand out as a particularly strong value at $10,200, but he still has excellent raw projections. He has the second-highest median and ceiling projections in our NFL Models, and raw points can be undervalued in the single-game format. If he gets to his usual 16-20 in this spot, there’s a good chance he ends up in the optimal lineup. He’s currently projected for 42% ownership in the Flex spot, but his optimal lineup rate is closer to 70%.
It’s a bit harder to make the case for Deebo Samuel. Samuel is coming off a strong showing in his last outing, finishing with eight targets, seven receptions, 74 yards, and a touchdown. He ultimately finished with 20.7 PPR points, which was the fifth-highest mark at the position in Week 11.
However, that stands out as a clear outlier. He finished with 12.9 DraftKings points or fewer in each of his four previous outings, and he had single-digits in three of them.
Samuel will also face a bit more competition for targets this week. Terry McLaurin will suit up for the first time since Week 8, and he has the potential to eat into Samuel’s workload. Samuel has still been the team’s top target earner even with McLaurin healthy, but he’s seen a clear downgrade in games where both have been active. He had a 34% target share alongside McLaurin in Week 1, but his other three games have been 18%, 16%, and 21%.
With Samuel’s price tag spiking to $10,000 on DraftKings, he’s a pretty easy fade against an elite Broncos’ defense. He has the second-worst projected Plus/Minus among the relevant options on this slate.
If you are going to use him, you might be best off doing so at Captain. He still has one of the top ceilings among the non-QBs, and he has the second-largest differential between optimal lineup rate and projected ownership at Captain in Sim Labs.
NFL DFS Midrange Picks
We’ve seen a bit of a changing of the guard at receiver for the Broncos this season. Courtland Sutton entered the year as the team’s top option. Over the first six weeks, Sutton posted a 22% target share, 37% air-yards share, and 40% end-zone share, and he finished as a top-16 PPR receiver in four of those outings.
However, Sutton has seen a clear downgrade in recent weeks. His target share has slipped to 17% over his past five outings, while his air-yards share (26%) and end-zone share (10%) are also way down. He has just one finish inside the top 35 at the position in that time frame, and he’s posted a negative Plus/Minus in four straight games.
Troy Franklin has emerged as the team’s new WR1. He owns a 27% target share over the team’s past five outings, and he’s had a mark of at least 23% in each game. He’s posted a positive Plus/Minus in three of those contests, including a WR1 finish in Week 8, and he just narrowly missed in a fourth.
With that in mind, it’s hard to justify paying $1,000 more for Sutton than Franklin on DraftKings. It wouldn’t be a huge surprise if he outscored him, despite the cheaper salary.
Both players should be able to do things vs. the Commanders’ defense. They’ve allowed the fourth-most fantasy points to opposing receivers, so both guys have some upside.
J.K. Dobbins went down with a season-ending injury in Week 10, which allowed R.J. Harvey to make the first start of his career. It was ultimately a slight disappointment, with Harvey finishing with just 8.0 DraftKings points. He was also vultured at the goal line, while he inexplicably continues to come off the field on passing downs. That’s not an ideal combination for fantasy purposes.
Still, Harvey’s stock is clearly on the rise. He played on 61% of the snaps for the Broncos in Week 11, and he handled 61% of the rushing attempts. That also includes 63% of the short-yardage opportunities, while he was targeted on a respectable 15% of his routes run. That’s not quite bell-cow usage, but he still profiles as the team’s clear RB1 moving forward.
That could make him a bit underpriced at $8,400, especially with his team favored by nearly a touchdown. He owns a +1.2 Opponent Plus/Minus vs. the Commanders, which is the second-best mark on the slate, and no player is showing up as the optimal Captain at a higher frequency in Sim Labs.
What will McLaurin’s role look like in his first game back? That remains to be seen, but expectations should be pretty low. McLaurin hasn’t enjoyed the same alpha role that he has in past seasons, with his target share sitting at 19% through four games.
However, he did display nice chemistry with Mariota in his last outing. He had four targets, three catches, and a touchdown in that contest despite exiting early. He was ultimately targeted on 25% of his routes run, so the gap between him and Samuel isn’t as big as it looks on paper.
Unfortunately, there’s always a risk in targeting a player in his first game back from injury. We’ve already seen that with McLaurin once this season. He was unable to finish the game in his last return from injury, and now he’ll have to do it against a brutal Broncos defense.
Zach Ertz has been a steady and undervalued tight end for most of the season. He doesn’t bring a huge ceiling to the table, but he’s posted a target share of at least 20% in six straight games. He’s had at least four catches in four straight contests, so the only thing he hasn’t done is find the paint.
The matchup for Ertz isn’t quite as bad as it is for some of his teammates. The Broncos are merely middle of the pack in terms of fantasy points allowed to opposing tight ends, and they’ve allowed the 10th-most receiving yards per game to the position.
Ertz will likely lose some targets with McLaurin back in the lineup, and his $7,000 salary is undoubtedly too high. That said, he still grades out as one of the better options in this price range on what is a pretty weak slate.
The Commanders’ RB tandem of Jacory Croskey-Merritt and Chris Rodriguez rounds out this price range. Croskey-Merritt entered the year as a sleeper, and that hype only intensified following the Brian Robinson trade. He served as their early-down grinder to start the year, including a stretch from Weeks 5 through 8 where he saw 61% of the carries.
However, Croskey-Merritt has been unable to take the job and run with it. For fantasy purposes, he brings very little to the table in weeks where he can’t find the end zone. He offers almost nothing as a pass catcher, and his efficiency has plummeted in recent weeks. He displayed some explosiveness to start the year, but he’s averaged just 3.0 yards per attempt over his past six outings.
With that in mind, it’s no surprise that Rodriguez has cut into his usage. His snaps and carries have crept up, culminating in a season-high 45% snap share in Week 11. He also had 47% of the team’s carries, while Croskey-Merritt was at 25% and 13%, respectively.
Rodriguez also offers almost nothing as a pass catcher, so neither player has an ideal skill-set for fantasy purposes. However, if you wanted to wager on one of these guys racking up rushing yards and potentially falling into the paint, Rodriguez is the better bet.
NFL DFS Value & Punt Picks
- Defenses & Kickers – These options are always in play in the single-game format. Will Lutz leads the group in projected Plus/Minus, but the Commanders Defense isn’t far behind. Washington also stands out as the most undervalued of the group in Sim Labs.
- Evan Engram ($4,600 DraftKings, $3,400 FanDuel) – The Engram signing has been nothing short of a disaster for Denver. That said, he does have a target share of at least 15% in seven of his past eight games. His price has come down to a point where he’s actually pretty reasonable.
- Jaleel McLaughlin ($4,400 DraftKings, $2,600 FanDuel) – It was McLaughlin who got the Broncos’ goal-line carry in their last game, and he ultimately converted for a short score. The rest of his profile is pretty underwhelming, as he was on the field for just eight total snaps, but he has some potential for another TD on this slate. He’s much more intriguing on FanDuel, where he’s significantly underpriced.
- Jeremy McNichols ($4,000 DraftKings, $5,600 FanDuel) – McNichols might be the Commanders’ top RB option in a game where they’re expected to play from behind. He’s handled the pass-catching duties in the team’s backfield following the injury to Austin Ekeler.
- Marvin Mims ($3,800 DraftKings, $4,200 FanDuel) – Mims returned to the lineup for Denver in Week 11, but he failed to earn a single target. However, he had a 13% target share across his first eight games, so he’s an interesting bounce-back option.
- Jaylin Lane ($3,600 DraftKings, $3,000 FanDuel) – Lane is part of the Commanders’ secondary receiver group, but his route participation has been at 27% or lower in back-to-back games. With McLaurin now back in the fold, it’s hard to imagine it trending up.
- Pat Bryant ($3,200 DraftKings, $5,000 FanDuel) – Bryant has been the Broncos’ clear No. 3 receiver from an opportunity standpoint of late. He has a route participation of at least 62% in three straight games, and he’s coming off 13.2 PPR points in his last outing. He could cede some playing time to Mims eventually, but he held him off for at least one week.
- Chris Moore ($2,800 DraftKings, $3,600 FanDuel) – Moore had a massive 84% route participation for the Commanders last week, and he ultimately finished with a 14% target share. He’s the favorite to maintain the No. 3 receiver role in Washington with McLaurin back in the fold.
- Adam Trautman ($1,600 DraftKings, $1,400 FanDuel) – Trautman is the Broncos’ No. 2 TE, but he’s not much of a factor in the passing game. He has just a 3% target share for the year, so his only hope at scoring is via a touchdown.
- Tyler Badie ($1,400 DraftKings, $2,200 FanDuel) – Badie is the Broncos’ third-down running back, but that’s due more for his blocking than his pass-catching prowess. He has just a 23% route participation and 6% target share for the year, and he’s had 1.0 DraftKings points or fewer in three of his past four games.
- Treylon Burks ($1,000 DraftKings, $1,000 FanDuel) – Burks is a former top draft pick who flamed out with the Titans, but he’s getting another chance with Washington. He had a 50% route participation last week, and he was targeted on 23% of his routes run. He likely loses some opportunities with McLaurin back, but he has some potential upside at a near-minimum price tag.
Pictured: R.J. Harvey
Photo Credit: Ron Chenoy, Imagn
