This season marks the third year of our SimLabs tool being available to the public. It’s a powerful feature that allows casual players to build competitive lineups effortlessly — or serious players to leverage their convictions more effectively. We’ve also added the feature of being able to export lineups from SimLabs directly to our models for easy tweaking of lineups.
I broke down some general uses of the tool from an evergreen perspective last season. Moving forward, we’ll be checking out some suggested starting points for building lineups.
The process is simple: from the SimLabs home screen, first select the field size and desired range of outcomes for your lineups. The field size depends on the contest type, while the “results range” allows you to customize how unique you want your lineups to be.
Then, find the box titled “include players” and type your preferred options — then sit back and let the sims do their thing. You can generate as many or as few lineups as you want, then upload directly to DraftKings to be entered into contests.
For more on what SimLabs is and how it works, check out our user guide.
Let’s check out some potential starting points in Week 13.
Josh Allen
I normally don’t include single players in this article since it’s not much of a starting point, but in Week 13 Josh Allen merits an exception.
I broke down in my main slate breakdown why I believe Allen has a better-than-usual shot at taking down a GPP this week. It’s not because I’m expecting an outsized performance from Allen necessarily; it’s that the nature of the slate means his typical mid-20s score has a stronger chance than usual of being the best QB score.
With no total above 46 points on the slate, the odds of any massive scores are lower. Allen has put up scores in the 20s at a very consistent rate this season (and for the past few years), often without bringing along any particular pass catcher. He’s also projecting for sub-10% ownership, making him one of the few QBs on the slate with a positive optimal-projected ownership score in SimLabs.
Leaving it up to the sims to decide whether to roster Allen naked, with players from his own team, or with bring-backs from Pittsburgh removes one of the tougher parts of rostering Allen, and I’m grateful to not have to make that decision.
Matthew Stafford + Puka Nacua
The leader among WRs in optimal-projected ownership score this week is Nacua. He’s projecting just behind Jaxon Smith-Njigba in median and ceiling projection but is $500 cheaper and expected to be slightly less popular.
That makes him a solid play in his own right, and I’d argue his true ceiling might be higher than JSN’s. Both the Rams and the Seahawks are favored by double digits, meaning their expected pass rates should be fairly low. However, the Rams rank 2nd in the NFL in pass rate over expectation, while the Seahawks rank second to last.
That also boosts the projection for Stafford, who has a similar case as Allen for being the GPP-winning QB. He’s scored between 22.92 and 30.40 points in six of his last eight games, a range that typically won’t win a GPP at his salary but might this week. Plus, he’s $500 cheaper than Allen and projecting for lower ownership.
Typically we want to pair Stafford with two receivers since he provides so little with his legs, but I’ll let SimLabs decide if that’s Davante Adams or a cheaper option from the Rams.
Tyrod Taylor + Adonai Mitchell + John Metchie
This is my obligatory “smaller field contest” building block, so be sure to adjust your SimLabs settings if you’re riding with me on this one.
All three players mentioned are among the top two Pts/Sal players at their position. None of them — with the possible exception of Mitchell — provide much upside. However, by filling out three correlated spots with players near the positional minimum salary, you leave plenty of space for the expensive, high-upside plays on the slate.
There are four running backs priced at $8,300 or higher who could all break the slate, a few wide receivers (including Nacua and JSN) with massive upside, and some expensive tight ends and defenses that could all prove essential to taking down a GPP. Starting a lineup with this block gives you more chances to roster those players while betting on no QB/primary passing stack to go nuclear.
As mentioned in the previous sections, that’s a bet I want to be heavily invested in this week. You could also sub out Taylor for another cheap QB like Cam Ward or CJ Stroud while keeping the two cheap Jets wide receivers and accomplish a similar outcome.
Pictured: Josh Allen
Photo Credit: Imagn
