After a delicious three-course Thanksgiving slate, Black Friday brings the dessert. The Philadelphia Eagles will host the Chicago Bears in a battle between NFC division leaders. The Eagles are currently listed as seven-point home favorites, while the total sits at 44.5 points.
While both of these teams are currently in first place – and just one game behind the Rams for the best record in the NFC – they aren’t without their flaws. The Eagles have struggled to consistently generate offense this season, and they blew a 21-0 lead vs. the Cowboys last week. The Bears have a negative point differential for the year, so they’ve thrived thanks to a 6-1 record in one-score games. Both teams are still in excellent positions to make the playoffs, but they have some work to do if they want to be legitimate contenders.
Let’s dive into all the top DFS options for Black Friday.
NFL DFS Stud Picks
After a trio of contests with huge names and totals on Thanksgiving, things don’t seem quite as appetizing for fantasy purposes on Friday. That said, there are still some big-time fantasy producers at the top of the pricing spectrum.
That starts with Jalen Hurts at quarterback. While the Eagles have had their struggles on offense, Hurts continues to put up solid fantasy totals. He’s third at the position in fantasy points per game, with only the MVP duo of Josh Allen and Patrick Mahomes averaging more.
Hurts’ biggest skill for fantasy purposes is his ability to get shoved into the end zone by his teammates. The tush push may be a universally hated play, but there is no denying its effectiveness. It’s propelled Hurts to double-digit rushing scores in four consecutive seasons, and he’s at eight through 11 games so far this year.
Hurts has also been more efficient than you might realize as a passer. He doesn’t have the best raw volume most weeks, but his average of 8.37 adjusted yards per attempt is basically in line with his mark from last season. He’s averaged 208 passing yards per game with 17 passing scores, and he’s thrown just one interception.
The Bears have also been a solid matchup for quarterbacks this season, allowing the eighth-most fantasy points per game to the position. Perhaps that will change as they get a bit healthier – Jaylon Johnson and Kyle Gordon are both questionable to return from IR – but Hurts leads the slate with a +2.8 Opponent Plus/Minus.
No one in this contest can match Hurts from an upside standpoint. He has the top ceiling projection in our NFL Models by nearly 10 full points. He also ranks first in terms of projected Plus/Minus, which is a very tough combination to fade.
Caleb Williams is the other quarterback option on this slate. He’s shown some clear signs of progression in his second NFL season. He’s racked up 16 touchdown passes compared to just four interceptions, while his 7.52 adjusted yards per attempt is nearly a full yard better than his mark as a rookie. He’s still not quite the star that he was expected to be, but he’s eighth at the position in fantasy points per game.
Williams brings just enough rushing upside to the table. He’s averaged just under 27 yards per game, and he’s added four scores through 11 outings. That’s not quite elite production, but it puts him in the next tier down.
However, Williams is going to have to navigate a brutal matchup on Friday. The Eagles’ defense has been a bear recently (no pun intended). They did give up big numbers to Dak Prescott in their collapse last week, but they held good Lions and Packers offenses to just 16 points combined the two weeks prior.
The Bears have also adopted more of a run-heavy approach since their Week 5 bye. They have a -4% Dropback Over Expectation since then, compared to a +1% mark in their first four games. Unsurprisingly, Williams’ fantasy average has dropped from 21.0 fantasy points pre-bye to 18.9 post.
Add it all up, and Williams is not particularly appealing at his current price tag. Quarterbacks will always have some appeal in the single-game format, but Williams has the fifth-worst projected Plus/Minus among relevant options. That said, he’s still showing up in the optimal lineup sims at a 65.5% clip in Sim Labs, compared to just 38.1% projected ownership. That’s the largest discrepancy in the flex spot.
Saquon Barkley rounds out this tier, and it has been a bizarre season for one of the most talented RBs in football. He was always expected to regress some after last year’s historic campaign. Running backs that have as many touches as Barkley did last season almost always come back to reality the following year.
That said, I don’t think anyone expected Barkley to come this far back. He’s averaging more than two fewer yards per carry than he did last season, and he simply doesn’t appear to have the same juice. His blocking has certainly gotten worse, but Barkley is also not making the most of his opportunities. He’s a mind-boggling 94th at the position in yards after contact per attempt, while he ranks 34th in broken tackles. He has the same number of broken tackles as his backup does (Tank Bigsby), and Barkley has had 162 additional carries.
The good news is that the Eagles have upped Barkley’s usage as a pass-catcher of late. He owns a 17% target share over his past four games, and he had eight targets, seven catches, and 52 yards as a receiver last week. That wasn’t enough to overcome a paltry 10 carries for 22 yards vs. the Cowboys, but it saved his day from being a true disaster.
The Bears stand out as a solid matchup. They’ve surrendered some huge performances on the ground this season, and they’ve allowed at least 169 rushing yards to three of their past five opponents. The Bears are also going to be without two starting linebackers on Friday, so they could be even weaker than usual in that department.
Barkley ultimately has the top optimal Captain rate at the position (17.6%), but his ownership is expected to exceed that figure by a decent margin. He’s also projected to be one of the most over-owned players at the flex spot.
NFL DFS Midrange Picks
Both of these teams have plenty of talent at receiver, though it hasn’t always been on display this season.
It’s possible that the Eagles are without one of their top receivers this week. DeVonta Smith has missed the first two practices to start the week while dealing with a variety of ailments. If he’s unable to get in a limited session on Thursday, he’s probably going to have to sit.
That would be a huge boon to A.J. Brown. Brown is already Philly’s No. 1 option on paper, and he’s coming off a big game last week vs. the Cowboys. He notched 10 targets, which he converted into eight grabs, 110 yards, and a touchdown.
Brown hasn’t been nearly as efficient as he was in previous years, but he still has a 28% target share for the year. That’s more than good enough for fantasy purposes. If Smith is out of the lineup, Brown could easily eclipse 30% or even 40% vs. the Bears.
That said, if Smith can play, he’s arguably the more appealing value at a slightly cheaper price tag. He’s been the more consistent producer this season, and he has an identical 28% target share. He also has a slight edge in terms of air yards and end zone targets, giving him superior utilization overall.
The Bears also have a clear top two at receiver in Rome Odunze and D.J. Moore. Odunze started the year red hot, scoring at least 15.8 PPR points in each of his first four games. He had a 27% target share and 41% air yards share over that stretch, so it looked like a breakout was happening.
Unfortunately, he’s been unable to sustain those levels. Following the team’s Week 5 bye, Odunze’s target share has dipped to just 23%. It’s still the top mark on the squad over that time frame, but it’s a clear step down. He’s had single-digit PPR points in five of his last seven outings, and he’s merely WR51 in fantasy points per game over that time frame.
It’s hard to imagine things being much better vs. the Eagles. They haven’t been truly elite at stopping receivers this season, but Odunze still owns just a -1.7 Opponent Plus/Minus.
His price tag has come down significantly in recent weeks, but he still stands out as too expensive in our NFL Models. He has the second-worst projected Plus/Minus among relevant players on DraftKings.
Moore has also struggled to post consistent results, though he’s displayed a bit more upside of late. He’s gone for at least 22.98 DraftKings points in two of his past four games. Unfortunately, those are sandwiched around games of 3.1 and zero fantasy points.
Moore has to navigate the same brutal matchup as Odunze, and he’s been worse than his teammate in every relevant metric. If you are going to play him, you’re best off doing so on FanDuel: his 94% Bargain Rating ranks second on the slate.
The Bears utilize a committee at running back, with D’Andre Swift and Kyle Monangai both factoring into the equation. Swift has spent most of the year as the starter, but Monangai has taken on a larger role as the year has progressed.
Monangai seemingly took over as the Bears’ top running back last week, handling 57% of the snaps and 55% of the designed rushing attempts. Swift was at 43% and 36%, respectively. It’s possible that’s just a one-week aberration, but Monangai has looked like the better back all season.
Swift is still projected for more fantasy points in our NFL Models, but with the price difference, Monangai grades out better in projected Plus/Minus. Monangai is also projected for less ownership, making him the better target of the two.
Dallas Goedert rounds out this price range, and he’s currently seventh at the position in PPR points per game. Most of that production has come via touchdown. He had seven receiving scores in his first seven games, but he’s been held out of the end zone since. In the games where Goedert hasn’t scored this season, he’s racked up 4.0, 4.4, 8.3, 4.4, and 11.4 PPR points.
That makes things pretty simple. If Goedert scores a touchdown, he has a great chance of returning value. If he doesn’t, there’s a good chance he’s going to bust.
The good news is that the Bears have allowed the ninth-most PPR points per game to opposing tight ends. They’ve also allowed 0.5 touchdowns per game to the position, so it’s a reasonable spot for Goedert to get in the paint.
Goedert could also take on a slightly larger role if Smith is unable to suit up. While Smith has yet to sit out this season, Goedert did score 17.8 PPR points in the lone game that A.J. Brown missed.
NFL DFS Value & Punt Picks
- Defenses & Kickers – These options are always in play in the single-game format. The Eagles Defense leads this group in projected Plus/Minus, while Jake Elliott stands out as the most undervalued option in Sim Labs.
- Colston Loveland ($4,400 DraftKings, $5,800 FanDuel) – Loveland was a first-round pick for the Bears this season, and he has plenty of long-term potential. He struggled to find consistent opportunities early in the year, but he’s taken on a larger role in recent weeks. He’s posted a 16% target share over his past six outings, and he’s averaged 12.2 PPR points per game during that stretch.
- Luther Burden ($3,800 DraftKings, $4,200 FanDuel) – Burden is another talented rookie who is starting to play more for the Bears. He’s posted a 61% route participation in back-to-back contests, and he’s had target shares of 17% and 18% in those games. He stands out as one of the best pure values on the slate.
- Jahan Dotson ($3,200 DraftKings, $2,800 FanDuel) – Dotson has served as the Eagles’ No. 3 receiver this season, and most weeks, that leads to plenty of empty cardio. However, if Smith is unable to go, Dotson could see a few more opportunities. He’d be a pretty strong option in that case, while he’s a boom-or-bust punt play otherwise.
- Olamide Zaccheaus ($3,000 DraftKings, $5,200 FanDuel) – With Burden taking on more responsibilities, Zaccheaus has been a non-factor of late. He’s posted 19% and 24% route participations over his past two games, and he has just one total target over that time frame.
- Cole Kmet ($2,400 DraftKings, $3,800 FanDuel) – Like with Zaccheaus, Kmet has lost opportunities to Loveland in recent weeks. However, Kmet has stayed somewhat relevant. He had an 18% target share two weeks ago, and he still managed a 42% route participation last week.
Pictured: Jalen Hurts
Photo Credit: Imagn
