NFL Week 11 features a potential NFC Championship preview on Sunday Night Football. The Eagles are listed as 2.5-point home favorites vs. the Lions, while the total sits at 46.5 points.
The Eagles have had some issues at times this season, particularly on offense, but they’re still tied atop the NFC standings at 7-2. They’ve picked up wins in three straight games, including a road win in Lambeau Field vs. the Packers last week. They managed just 10 points in that contest, but their defense was able to limit an explosive Packers offense to just one touchdown.
Detroit is one game back of the Eagles at 6-3, and its offense continues to roll along despite losing Ben Johnson at offensive coordinator. They’re second in points per game and sixth in yards, while their defense has shown signs of improvement in recent weeks. They did suffer a shocking home loss vs. the Vikings two weeks ago, but they bounced back with 546 yards in a demolition of the Commanders last week.
Let’s dive into all the top DFS options for Sunday Night Football.
NFL DFS Stud Picks
This is a marquee matchup with tons of high-priced DFS talent to consider. That starts with Amon-Ra St. Brown. He’s the most expensive player on this slate, and he’s put together another fantastic season for the Lions. He’s third at the position in PPR points, and he dips just slightly to fifth in PPR points per game.
The Lions remain one of the most run-heavy teams in football, ranking 29th in Pass Rate Over Expectation. However, St. Brown has been able to make up for it in multiple ways. He has a 32% target share for the year, which is tied for the fourth-best mark at the position. He’s also seen 50% of the Lions’ end-zone targets, which has propelled him to eight receiving scores. That’s the second-best mark in football, with only Davante Adams scoring more frequently through the air.
The Eagles aren’t the best matchup, far from it, but they’re also not impossible to score against. They’re merely 16th in pass defense EPA this season, and they’re 18th in terms of fantasy points allowed to opposing receivers.
Ultimately, the matchup is good enough that St. Brown leads all players in projected Plus/Minus. He also has the top ceiling projection among non-quarterbacks, while his 16.5% optimal Captain rate is the top mark in Sim Labs. No other player is above 11.6%, so St. Brown makes plenty of sense in the top spot.
Jahmyr Gibbs is the Lions’ other stud skill-position player, and he’s coming off a monster performance last week vs. the Commanders. He racked up 172 total yards and three touchdowns, and he needed just 18 touches to do it. Gibbs ultimately finished with 41.2 DraftKings points, and he was the third-highest-scoring RB of the week.
Gibbs has been the No. 4 running back in terms of fantasy points per game this season, and he’s had two top-three performances in his past three games. He’s not a true bell-cow back, racking up just 52% of the carries and a 14% target share, but he makes up for it with elite efficiency. He also plays for one of the best offenses in football, which results in plenty of scoring chances. He has 10 touchdowns so far this season after leading the league with 20 in 2024-25.
Like with St. Brown, the matchup for Gibbs is tough but doable. The Eagles have actually allowed the 11th-most PPR points per game to opposing RBs, despite grading out 10th in rush defense EPA. Part of that stems from their struggles against opposing RBs in the passing game. They’ve allowed the ninth-most receiving yards per game to the position, and they’re tied for fourth-worst in terms of receiving touchdowns to opposing RBs.
Gibbs doesn’t grade out nearly as well as St. Brown in our NFL Models, but he clearly has plenty of upside. He’s gone for at least 39.8 DraftKings points in two of his past three outings, so he has one of the stronger ceilings on the slate.
It has been an up-and-down year for Jalen Hurts. However, the positives still outweigh the negatives. He’s seventh at the position in terms of fantasy points per game, and he still provides some of the best rushing touchdown upside at QB. His scores have been down this season with five through nine games, but he could still finish with double-digit TDs for the fifth straight year.
The bigger question mark has been his passing. His efficiency is still solid, with his 8.68 adjusted yards per attempt actually representing a new career high. The bigger problem has been his volume. He’s averaged just 26.8 pass attempts per game, and only two teams have averaged fewer tosses.
Hurts’ volume could get cranked up a bit vs. the Lions. The Eagles are going to have to put some points on the board, and the Lions have been pretty stout against the run. As a result, opposing QBs have averaged the 11th-most fantasy points per game against Detroit, and Hurts leads the slate with a +2.2 Opponent Plus/Minus.
If Hurts does air it out a bit more than usual, he should be able to put up a big number. Even if he doesn’t, he still stands out as undervalued. Hurts has posted a positive Plus/Minus in six of his past seven games, and he’s been as expensive as $11,400 during that stretch. He’s arguably the strongest play of the day.
Jared Goff is the other QB to consider, though he does things significantly differently than Hurts. He’s a pure pocket passer, which gives him a lower floor overall. He’s had more than 21.12 DraftKings points in just two of nine outings, and those have come against the Bears and Commanders. Both of those defenses have struggled vs. the pass, and the Eagles are a much tougher opponent.
This game will also take place on the road for Goff, which is a split he hasn’t done great in. He’s historically averaged a Plus/Minus of -2.28 when playing away from home, and that dips to -3.33 as a road dog (per the Trends tool). This is also an outdoor contest, which is another spot where Goff has historically struggled.
Add it all up, and Goff carries a bit more risk than usual. He still stands out as a viable target, but he’s a much better Flex play than he is at Captain: his optimal Captain rate is a paltry 1.1%, and no player has a bigger gap between optimal lineup rate and projected ownership in the Flex spot.
NFL DFS Midrange Picks
It would’ve been crazy to see Saquon Barkley in this tier a year ago. He absolutely tore the NFL apart in his first year with the Eagles, rushing for more than 2,000 yards during the regular season. He followed that up with a monster postseason, and he was rewarded with the Offensive Player of the Year Award.
Barkley has not had nearly the same success in 2025-26. Some regression was always expected. Running backs that handle the kind of massive workload that Barkley did last year almost always come back to reality the following season. That said, I don’t think people expected it to be quite this ugly. Barkley has managed to stay relatively healthy, he just hasn’t been very effective. His blocking has been far worse this season, and Barkley isn’t helping much either. He’s 86th at running back in yards after contact per attempt, and he’s 40th in broken tackles.
As a result, Barkley has posted a positive Plus/Minus in just one game this season. That came against the lowly Giants, who are currently dead last in rush defense EPA.
The Lions are a much tougher matchup, allowing the fourth-fewest PPR points per game to opposing running backs. Barkley’s -3.5 Opponent Plus/Minus is the worst mark among the skill position players on this slate, making him tough to trust even at his current reduced price tag.
It will be interesting to see how the targets shake out between DeVonta Smith and A.J. Brown this week. Smith has been the team’s clear No. 1 option in the passing attack of late. He’s posted a massive 33% target share since Week 5, while Brown has been a distant second at 23%. Both players have identical 13.3 Average Depth of Targets (aDOT) during that stretch, so Smith has unsurprisingly been the superior producer. He’s averaged 18.6 PPR points per game, while Brown has averaged just 13.7.
It’s possible that this trend will continue moving forward, but Brown has been very vocal about his role in recent weeks. He’s coming off a game with just three targets, two catches, and 23 yards, so this could be a “squeaky wheel gets the grease” spot.
Ultimately, Brown has the superior projections of the duo in our NFL Models, despite checking in with a cheaper price tag. That said, he’s also projected for more ownership. Both guys make sense in this matchup, and they both pair well with Hurts: each player has a correlation of at least +0.31 with the team’s quarterback.
The Lions are going to be without Sam LaPorta for at least the next four weeks, with the stud tight end landing on Injured Reserve. LaPorta has an 18% target share for the year, so his absence is going to open up some additional opportunities for the rest of the roster.
Jameson Williams could be one of the biggest beneficiaries. He’s historically been a boom-or-bust type of player, capable of turning any target into a big play. With LaPorta out of the picture, Williams’ target share could be a lot more consistent.
That makes him a clear player to buy at $7,600. He’s had at least 16.6 DraftKings points in three of his past four games, and he’s had seven targets in two of them. He’s coming off his best game of the season in his last outing, and he could build on that success vs. the Eagles. If you are going to roster Williams, using him alongside Goff makes a ton of sense: the two players have an elite +0.59 correlation.
Dallas Goedert has been an excellent fantasy tight end this season, ranking fifth at the position in PPR points per game. He’s posted a healthy 21% target share for the year, but the majority of his value has come from touchdowns. He has seven receiving scores in his eight games, and he’s failed to score in just three contests.
That said, the weeks that he’s failed to find the paint haven’t been pretty. He’s posted just 8.3, 4.8, and 11.4 DraftKings points in those outings, resulting in a negative Plus/Minus in each. His price tag is very reasonable after dipping from $7,400 last week, but he’s likely going to need to score to return value.
David Montgomery rounds out this price range, and his $5,200 salary is his lowest mark of the season. Montgomery has clearly fallen behind Gibbs in Detroit’s backfield, but this is still a “1A/1B” type of situation. He’s seen 42% of the team’s rushing attempts for the year, while Gibbs is at 52%.
Montgomery doesn’t have quite the same skill set as a receiver, which gives him a lower floor. However, he has plenty of touchdown upside for a good Lions’ offense. He’s ultimately a solid buy-low option at this price tag.
NFL DFS Value & Punt Picks
- Defenses & Kickers – These options are always in play in the single-game format, and they’re even more valuable than usual on this slate. There aren’t many strong value options to consider, so these are some of the best sources of salary savings. The kickers stand out as the better values in our NFL Models, and both also appear to be undervalued in Sim Labs.
- Kalif Raymond ($3,000 DraftKings, $2,800 FanDuel) – Raymond is the Lions’ WR3, and he could see a bigger role than usual with LaPorta sidelined. Isaac TeSlaa is also questionable to suit up, and his absence would further increase Raymond’s appeal.
- Jahan Dotson ($2,400 DraftKings, $3,800 FanDuel) – Dotson handles the third receiver duties for the Eagles, but they have one of the most condensed passing attacks in football. Dotson has just a 6% target share for the year, and he’s had two targets or fewer in all but three games. That said, he did score a touchdown two weeks ago vs. the Giants.
- Brock Wright ($1,600 DraftKings, $2,200 FanDuel) – Wright should be the next man up for the Lions at tight end, but unfortunately, he’s dealing with an injury of his own. However, he was able to get in two limited practices to close the week, so it’s more likely than not that he’ll be in the lineup. As long as he’s active, he certainly has the potential to pay off his minimal price tag.
Pictured: Jalen Hurts
Photo Credit: Jeff Hanisch, Imagn
