NFL DFS Showdown Picks Breakdown for Raiders vs. Broncos Thursday Night Football (11/6)

NFL Week 10 gets started with an old-school AFC West rivalry. The Denver Broncos will host the Las Vegas Raiders, with the Broncos listed as 9.5-point home favorites. The total for this contest sits at 42.5 points.

The Broncos were expected to contend for a postseason spot this year, and they’ve gotten off to an elite start. They’re currently sitting at 7-2, tying them with the Colts and Patriots for the best record in the AFC. They still have to navigate two matchups vs. the Chiefs and one vs. the Chargers, but they’re live to win the division for the first time since 2015.

Unfortunately, things haven’t gone nearly as well for the Raiders. They made some big changes this offseason, bringing in Pete Carroll as head coach and Geno Smith as quarterback, and neither has paid dividends yet. However, they did show some signs of life last week, ultimately losing by a point in overtime.

Can the Raiders pull off the upset in Week 10? Let’s dive into all the top DFS options for Thursday Night Football.

NFL DFS Stud Picks

This is a pretty pedestrian slate in terms of star power. For fantasy purposes, Bo Nix stands out as the clear top stud target.

Nix hasn’t made quite the second-year leap that most were expecting this season. In fact, he’s actually been slightly worse than he was as a rookie in terms of adjusted yards per attempt. He’s had four games with 176 passing yards or fewer through his first nine outings, including last week against a tough Texans’ defense.

The good news is that Nix has still typically provided solid fantasy value. He’s an underrated rushing threat, averaging 23.0 rushing yards per game with three rushing TDs so far this season. He’s also tossed 17 touchdown passes, with multiple scores in three straight games. Nix has posted a positive Plus/Minus in each of those contests, including a massive 39.96 DraftKings points vs. the Giants three weeks ago.

That gives Nix a solid ceiling in the right matchups, and the Raiders definitely qualify. They’ve been an excellent target for opposing quarterbacks this season, ranking 23rd in pass defense EPA. They’ve also allowed the 11th-most fantasy points per game to the position, and Nix leads all players on this slate with a +0.8 Opponent Plus/Minus.

Nix should also benefit from this game being played in Denver. He’s had massive home/road splits to start his young career, and he’s averaged a +4.35 Plus/Minus when playing in Denver. That figure increases to +5.46 as a home favorite, and it’s +9.60 in six starts as a home favorite of at least a touchdown (per the Trends tool).

Ultimately, Nix stands out as the easy choice to pay up for on Thursday night. He’s expected to carry massive ownership, but his optimal lineup rate is north of 75% in the FLEX spot in Sim Labs.

Ashton Jeanty is the other stud in this matchup, and it’s a lot harder to get excited about him. Jeanty was considered a high-end RB1 for fantasy purposes entering this season, but he has not lived up to expectations as a rookie. He’s currently RB16 in terms of PPR points per game, and that number would be a lot lower if not for a 33.5-point outburst in Week 4.

Jeanty has had to overcome a brutal set of circumstances. He’s averaging just 1.3 yards before contact per attempt, which is easily the worst mark in the league among high-volume runners. He’s doing his best to make the most of his opportunities – he trails only Jonathan Taylor in broken tackles – but he’s had to work extremely hard in his rookie season.

That said, there is a bit of a silver lining with Jeanty. He’s been used more as a pass-catcher as the season has progressed, which has led to an uptick in production. He has a 14% target share since Week 4, and he’s posted at least 15.9 DraftKings points in four of his past five outings. That’s not quite what we’re looking for at his current salary, but it’s a lot closer to returning value than he was at the start of the year.

Unfortunately, Jeanty is in a brutal spot on Thursday. Not only is he a massive underdog – which doesn’t typically bode well for running backs – but he has to deal with a ferocious Broncos’ defense. They’re seventh in rush defense EPA, and they’ve allowed the fifth-fewest PPR points per game to the position.

That makes Jeanty extremely tough to roster at his current price tag. He has the worst projected Plus/Minus among all starters in our NFL Models.

NFL DFS Midrange Picks

Brock Bowers is still priced below the stud tier at $9,800, but that might not be the case for much longer. He returned to the lineup following a three-game absence in Week 9, and he looked completely rejuvenated. He finished with 46.3 DraftKings points, which was the most by a tight end since Darren Waller back in 2020. Before that, you’d have to go all the way back to Shannon Sharpe in 2002 to find a TE with more PPR production in a single week.

Bowers’ underlying metrics in that contest were also elite. He racked up a 34% target share, 55% air yards share, and 75% end zone share, which would easily be the best marks at TE if he can sustain them moving forward. Trey McBride has been the top TE from a utilization standpoint this season, and he’s at just 28% target share and air yards share overall.

Bowers will have to deal with the same brutal matchup as Jeanty, and the Broncos’ pass defense is even better than their run defense. However, they haven’t been quite as dominant against tight ends as they have been against receivers. He still has the potential to do some damage in this spot, and he’s simply too cheap based on last week’s utilization. He has the second-highest median projection on this slate, and he’s No. 3 in projected ceiling.

Bowers’ return should also help his quarterback. Smith has had a terrible first year with the Raiders, posting his worst marks since his early years with the Jets. That said, he looked much better in Week 9. He finished with a season-high 27.26 DraftKings points, tossing four touchdowns with 284 yards vs. the Jaguars.

Can he do it again vs. the Broncos? That might be too much to ask. Denver has allowed the fourth-fewest fantasy points per game to opposing QBs, and Smith’s -4.4 Opponent Plus/Minus is the second-worst mark on the slate.

Still, Smith is pretty affordable at just $9,000, and he has the second-highest ceiling projection in our NFL Models. No player has a larger gap between optimal lineup rate and projected ownership in Sim Labs, so he could be a bit overlooked.

Courtland Sutton has been the Broncos’ top pass catcher this season, though his standing in that role has decreased of late. He’s posted just a 19% target share over the past four weeks, which puts him merely second among the team’s receivers.

Sutton is also coming off a game with just one catch in Week 9. That catch did manage to go for a 30-yard touchdown, but it would’ve been a disastrous showing if he hadn’t found the paint. 

That makes him feel too expensive at $9,600. It’s just $200 cheaper than Bowers, yet his utilization numbers are significantly worse. Perhaps he can capitalize on the favorable matchup, but he carries a significant amount of downside.

JK Dobbins has been the Broncos’ top running back all season, and he’s mostly exceeded expectations. He’s averaged 11.8 PPR points per game, which is the 18th-best mark at the position.

Dobbins’ biggest red flag for fantasy purposes is his lack of involvement in the pass game. However, that shouldn’t be a huge issue vs. the Raiders. The Broncos are nearly 10-point favorites, and Dobbins has handled the majority of the team’s rushing attempts all year. That includes nearly all of the goal-line work.

Dobbins has had at least 60% of the team’s designed rushing attempts in all but one game this season. If he can get back to that threshold vs. the Raiders, he has the potential for a big day.

Troy Franklin has challenged Sutton for the WR1 job in Denver of late. His target share is up to 24% over the past four games, and it’s at 26% over his past three. He has double-digit targets in two of his past three outings, and he had eight in the other.

Franklin has also gobbled up air yards during that stretch. His Average Depth of Target (aDOT) is 18.2 yards over his past three contests, giving him plenty of big-play potential.

Ultimately, his projections look pretty comparable to Sutton’s, and he checks in at a sizable discount. He also has a slightly better correlation with Nix (+0.21), further increasing his appeal in lineups that include the team’s QB.

The Raiders decided to trade disgruntled WR Jakobi Meyers before the deadline, opening up some additional opportunities at the position. While Bowers should serve as their de facto No. 1 receiver, Tre Tucker should also see a boost in production.

Tucker has already been heavily involved in the team’s passing attack. He has a 95% route participation for the year, including a perfect 100% mark last week. In his lone game without Meyers this season, he racked up a 38% target share. That game also came with Bowers out of the lineup, but it’s very reasonable to expect a few more looks for Tucker moving forward.

R.J. Harvey was the Broncos’ second-round pick in the 2025 NFL Draft, and he’s put together some excellent fantasy production of late. He racked up three touchdowns vs. the Cowboys two weeks ago, and he had another score last week vs. the Texans.

While Harvey is not getting involved much in the run game – he had just two carries vs. Houston – he’s making up for it with his work as a pass-catcher. He had a 15% target share last week, and he responded with five catches for 51 yards.

That said, the Broncos were in a trailing game script throughout vs. the Texans. If they can establish a lead vs. the Raiders, they might not need Harvey’s pass-catching nearly as much. He could see a bit more work as a runner in that scenario, but he still carries some downside.

NFL DFS Value & Punt Picks

• Defenses & Kickers – These options are always in play in the single-game format. Will Lutz stands out as the best option of the group in our projections, while the Raiders Defense appears the most undervalued in Sim Labs.
• Evan Engram ($4,400 DraftKings, $5,600 FanDuel) – The Engram signing has more or less been a disaster for the Broncos. He failed to catch a single pass last week, and he has just one game with double-digit DraftKings points for the year. However, he had been getting more involved prior to last week’s disappointing showing, so he’s a solid buy-low target at $4,400. He has the third-best projected Plus/Minus in our NFL Models.
• Pat Bryant ($3,200 DraftKings, $3,800 FanDuel) – Bryant has seen a larger role as the year has progressed, culminating in a 62% route participation last week. With Marvin Mims out for the second straight game, Bryant should be locked into the No. 3 receiver role vs. the Raiders.
• Tyler Lockett ($3,000 DraftKings, $4,200 FanDuel) – Lockett seems pretty washed, and he has just an 8% target share for the year. It’s possible he gets some more looks with Meyers now gone, but there are more interesting values for the Raiders.
• Michael Mayer ($2,800 DraftKings, $4,600 FanDuel) – Mayer is one of them. He has plenty of talent, but he’s been blocked by Bowers since the start of last year. The Raiders could go with a lot more two-TE looks with Meyers now out of the picture, so it’s possible that both guys return value in this contest.
• Raheem Mostert ($2,400 DraftKings, $2,600 FanDuel) – Mostert is the Raiders’ backup RB, but he saw zero carries and one target as Jeanty’s backup last week. He was on the field for just 10% of the team’s offensive snaps, so he’s not particularly relevant.
• Jack Bech ($2,000 DraftKings, $3,400 FanDuel) – Bech missed the Raiders’ last game, but he had an 80% route participation in his two games prior. He was a second-round pick in the 2025 NFL Draft, so he should be one of the big winners from the Meyers trade. 
• Adam Trautman ($1,600 DraftKings, $1,800 FanDuel) – The Broncos’ TE2. He’s not particularly involved most weeks, but TEs are always viable to score a cheap TD around the goal line.
• Tyler Badie ($1,400 DraftKings, $2,000 FanDuel) – Badie has handled the third-down responsibilities in the Broncos’ backfield this season. That said, it hasn’t led to much production. He’s been at 4.2 DraftKings points or fewer in each game.

Pictured: Bo Nix
Photo Credit: Imagn