Projecting line play — or the line’s impact on fantasy scoring — is one of the more challenging tasks in all of DFS.
While quantitative measures exist, they can be lacking to an extent. On the player level, grading services like Pro Football Focus are notoriously challenged with offensive line play. It’s difficult to know which member of a line blew an assignment on a sack, for example.
Things are a bit easier on the team level, as assessing the unit’s overall success is more practical.
However, we’ll still be taking a glance at qualitative sources. Including Action Network’s Brandon Anderson ranking all 32 NFL offensive lines. On the defensive side, PFF’s defensive line rankings will be the main source.
We also have projected sacks in our NFL Player Models.
The Data
Adjusted line yards data became matchup-adjusted starting in Week 5 but will continue to get stronger as we get more robust sample sizes. That’s a good thing for the process of this article, since we don’t need to parse out which team’s strong numbers are a result of soft matchups compared to solid play.
Strong Offensive Line Matchups
Chicago Bears OL (#1 In Combined Line Yards, #3 in combined Sack Rate) vs. Baltimore Ravens DL
The Baltimore Ravens are 1-5 heading into Week 7, with most of their downfall attributed to the injury that has kept Lamar Jackson ($6,800) out of action for the past few weeks. They were just 1-3 with Jackson, though, with the larger problem being their defense.
They’ve allowed at least 37 points four times in their six games and have allowed the most total points of any team in the league. That’s showing up in the play of their line, which ranks 29th in adjusted line yards and dead last in adjusted sack rate.
Offensively, the Bears rank top-six in both categories, making this an obvious edge for the Bears offense. The best way to approach that edge probably depends on the health of Jackson. If he’s healthy, Caleb Williams ($5,600) and the passing attack will probably be called on to attack downfield. Without Jackson, odds are the Ravens offense doesn’t do enough to push the issue, so D’Andre Swift ($5,900) and the ground game make more sense.
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Denver Broncos OL (#6 In Combined Line Yards, #1 in combined Sack Rate) vs. Dallas Cowboys DL
Stacking offensive pieces against the Cowboys has been a solid plan of attack all season, with Dallas ranking 32nd in points allowed to QBs and 29th in points allowed to running backs. The Broncos are the next lucky team who gets to take them on, fresh off scoring 33 points in the 4th quarter of their win over the Giants.
Of course, Denver also scored zero points in the previous three quarters, so their offense can be hard to trust. Dallas is a much worse defense, though, so it feels unlikely that Denver is held down for the beginning of the game.
The Broncos running game is somewhat divided between JK Dobbins ($5,800) and RJ Harvey ($4,800), and the Cowboys offense is explosive enough that the Broncos will need to be aggressive. That makes Bo Nix ($6,000) and the Broncos passing game the better option here, and the numbers bear that out, with the bigger edge coming in pass blocking.
Indianapolis Colts OL (#4 In Combined Line Yards, #2 in combined Sack Rate) vs. Tennessee Titans DL
The Colts are the league’s number one scoring offense this season, in large part due to their elite offensive line play. They rank first in adjusted sack rate and fifth in adjusted line yards and have a solid matchup against a middling Titans defense.
The Colts are also favored by 14, by far the best odds on the slate. That means we likely won’t see much passing, so the clear best play is Jonathan Taylor ($9,500), who has been one of the most productive fantasy players in the league.
This one could get so far out of hand that Taylor takes a seat late in the game, which makes his $9,500 price tag potentially tough to swallow. The path to a true explosion for Taylor probably relies on some Titans players keeping things close, but he could have a strong game all on his own.
Strong Defensive Line Matchups
Cincinnati Bengals DL (#1 In Combined Sack Rate) vs. New York Jets OL
The Bengals defense is bad, allowing more points than any team other than Dallas. One of the few bright spots has been edge rusher Trey Hendrickson, who missed Week 7 and is questionable for Week 8. Cincinnati didn’t record a sack last week without him, after picking up five over the two previous weeks.
It’s especially notable that they still grade out as the best combined sack rate matchup against the Jets. The Jets rank dead last by a healthy margin in sack rate allowed. Some of that was due to recently deposed QB Justin Fields holding the ball too long, but Tyrod Taylor ($4,500) has also taken nine sacks in roughly two complete games of action.
Cincinnati ($2,700) is an obviously strong play at their price tag, especially considering they’re favored by about a touchdown. Outside of potential ownership, there’s not much of a reason to fade them this week.
Indianapolis Colts DL (#3 In Combined Sack Rate) vs. Tennessee Titans OL
The Colts defensive line is also projected to have the edge over the Titans, which makes sense considering they’re massive favorites. Indianapolis ($3,800) gets to face a rookie QB behind a bad offensive line, so it’s hard to ask for much more.
Their price tag — particularly if you’re attempting to stack them with Taylor — is prohibitive, but that should keep ownership down. It’s a great opportunity if you can find the salary.
Picture: Daniel Jones, Colts offensive line
Photo Credit: Imagn
