The UFC makes their yearly trip to Vancouver this weekend, with a makeshift main event between Reinier de Ridder and Brendan Allen, who replaces Anthony Hernandez against de Ridder.
The 13-fight card starts at 4:00 p.m. ET, with the main card officially at 8:00 p.m.
We have built out a full player-projection model using the FantasyLabs Tools and Player Models to help put together some winning DFS lineups in UFC. You can use our optimizer to build optimal lineups using these projections.
The model, created by our own Sean Koerner, is based on 10,000 simulations of all the fights. He then pulled the DraftKings score from each bout to create floor, median, and ceiling projections for every fighter. Here is how he defined each projection:
- Floor: Fighter has an 80% chance of going over this score, 20% chance of going under
- Median: Fighter has a 50% chance of going over this score, 50% chance of going under
- Ceiling: Fighter has a 20% chance of going over this score, 80% chance of going under
These should give us a better sense of which fighters we should target based on the game type – maximizing ceiling in GPPs, for example.
You can check out the projections for every fighter on Saturday’s card in our UFC Models.
Main Event
Reinier de Ridder ($8,800) vs. Brendan Allen ($7,400)
This main event was originally booked as de Ridder vs. Anthony Hernandez, in what seemed very likely to be a number one contender fight. A Hernandez injury forced him off the card, which now lowers the stakes for this fight, as Brendan Allen is 1-2 over his last three and unlikely to get a title shot regardless of the results this week.
Fortunately for Allen, he stepped in for this fight five weeks ago, so while he wasn’t afforded a full training camp, it was reasonably close. Unfortunately for Allen, de Ridder is an absolutely terrible stylistic matchup for him.
“The Dutch Knight” is a massive middleweight who previously challenged for the light heavyweight and heavyweight titles in ONE FC. Those two bouts provided his only career losses, and since coming to the UFC he’s knocked out uber-prospect Bo Nickal and defeated former champion Robert Whittaker.
Both Allen and de Ridder have fairly awkward striking, but de Ridder is more powerful, particularly with his knees in the clinch. Both are primarily grapplers, but RDR has black belts in both Judo and BJJ and has essentially never lost a grappling exchange in his MMA career.
Allen has solid submission skills but relatively mediocre wrestling but elite fighter standards, which means RDR’s clinch-based takedowns likely decide where this fight takes place. de Ridder’s height and reach edge force opponents to rush in while on their feet, which allows him to lock up a clinch where his Judo throws are especially dangerous.
Plus, there’s the somewhat short-notice nature of the bout for Allen, which is always a concern with five-round fights. I’m all in on de Ridder for GPPs, though I’ll be somewhat begrudgingly stacking this one in cash games for want of better options in either fighter’s price range.
The Easy Chalk
HyunSung Park ($9,000)
There’s not really an obvious “easy chalk” play this week, as I have my concerns about most of the top fighters either suffering upset losses or winning in tepid enough fashion to make them a regrettable DFS play. Park leans more towards the former category, but I have more faith in him than many of the fighters priced ahead of him.
He’s taking on veteran Bruno Silva ($7,200), in a bounce-back spot for both men who’ve recently suffered losses to top-ranked competitors. Park was submitted by #5 flyweight contender Tatsuro Taira, while Silva has been knocked out in consecutive fights by Josh Van and Manel Kape.
While there’s no shame in those outcomes for either man, Silva is old for a flyweight at 35, and two knockout losses in the past ten months isn’t a great sign for anyone, much less an older fighter. Park is still on the right side of 30 and far more likely to have plugged the holes in his game that led to his first career loss.
My concern is that Silva still packs plenty of power, and Park has been dropped three times in UFC-affiliated events, despite never suffering a KO/TKO loss. That gives him a relatively low floor, but his median and ceiling projections are among the best on the slate, especially relative to his salary.
The Upside Play
Drew Dober ($9,400)
Fan-favorite Drew Dober won’t be well liked by the Canadian crowd, as he’s taking on Ontario native Kyle Prepolec ($6,800). Dober’s -440 moneyline odds are the best on the slate, while competing in one of the fights likeliest to end inside the distance.
The bull case for Dober is that when he wins, he typically posts solid DFS scores. His last seven wins have come via knockout, with none of those making it to the third round. Prepolec is on his second UFC stint and is 0-3 in the promotion, though his return bout was on short notice against Benoit Saint-Denis, and he performed better than expected.
The bear case is that Prepolec has never been finished with strikes in a 27-fight career and is both defensively sound and very durable. With Dober’s one win condition being a knockout, this is a quietly difficult matchup for him. Plus, Dober is 36 and riding a three-fight losing streak, with the last two of those coming via stoppage.
The likeliest outcome is a vintage Dober knockout that gets him at least close to the optimal lineup, so I’ll have some of him in GPPs. However, I’ll also mix in some Prepolec, as I like his odds of pulling off the upset much more than the field does.
Updated on 12/5/25
The Value Play
Melissa Croden ($7,800)
I haven’t gotten around to watching any tape on Croden, so this will be one of my briefer breakdowns. The main point is that she’s priced as a +140 or so underdog but has caught enough steam in the betting market that she’s now a roughly -120 favorite against Tainara Lisboa ($8,400).
Lisboa is 2-1 in the UFC with some lower-level wins and is coming off a loss to Luana Santos in May. Croden is a debuting fighter from the LFA, where she’s picked up consecutive knockout wins over solid regional fighters, following her loss to UFC bantamweight Jacqueline Cavalcanti.
She’s also Canadian and opening the card, which is typically a spot where the UFC tries to get the hometown crowd a win. Plus, they signed Croden directly rather than putting her through the Contender Series, so they likely see something in her. At worst, she’s an excellent floor play in a fight likely to go the distance, but at best, she pulls off the upset at a slight underdog price.
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The Contrarian Choice
Yousri Belgaroui ($7,100)
One of the many long-shot underdogs I’m interested in this week is Yousri Belgaroui. He’s a former high-level kickboxer who holds a win over Alex Pereira and now trains alongside “Poatan” with Glover Teixeira in Connecticut.
At 8-3 his transition to MMA wasn’t quite as smooth as Pereira’s, but he’s still relatively young at 33. He dropped his first shot on the Contender Series via competitive decision before picking up a knockout victory in his return trip. At 6’5″, he’s huge for the middleweight division, with elite striking skills and, so far, 81% takedown defense.
The problem is his opponent. Azamat Bekoev ($9,100) is a well-regarded prospect with a 2-0 UFC record, both via knockout in the first round. The Russian native is clearly the better grappler in this matchup, especially after training at American Top Team with other grappling-heavy middleweights like Brendan Allen.
However, Belgaroui’s seven-inch reach edge could allow him to stay out of grappling range, especially in the full-sized UFC cage. Plus, while Bekoev is a solid grappler, he’s not an elite one, and Belgaroui has certainly improved his grappling ability under the tutelage of Glover Teixeira.
Any win almost certainly gets Belgaroui in the optimal lineup, but his likeliest win condition is a knockout, so his upside is tremendous relative to his price tag.
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The Swing Fight
Matt Frevola ($8,300) vs. Kyle Nelson ($7,900)
Canada’s Kyle Nelson takes on America’s Matt Frevola in a fight that’s -225 to end inside the distance. The lightweight matchup features two dangerous offensive fighters with extremely questionable durability, as both men are coming off knockout losses — two in a row for Frevola.
Both fighters also have negative striking differentials, as they’re almost always willing to take two shots in order to give one. Given their power — they’ve combined for five knockouts in nine UFC wins — that’s been a reasonable strategy, but one that relies heavily on chins that might no longer be up to par.
Frevola has the better one-shot power but has also taken more damage of the pair, so that roughly evens out. I’d give “Steamrolla” the slight grappling edge but I’m suspicious that either man goes that route, so it might be a moot point.
I’m leaning slightly to Nelson, since the betting line has shifted to essentially a pick ’em, and he’s the better value. However, I’ll be relatively balanced on both men, since that betting action probably indicates Nelson will come in with higher ownership in a fight that’s close to a coin flip.
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Pictured: Reinier de Ridder
Photo Credit: Imagn Images
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