We’ve had a lot of division island games to start the 2025 NFL season, and tonight’s game is no exception. We’ll get an NFC East showdown between the Philadelphia Eagles and New York Giants at MetLife Stadium. The Eagles are currently listed as 7.5-point road favorites, while the total sits at 40.5 points.
The Eagles suffered their first loss of the season in Week 5, dropping a game at home vs. the Broncos. They jumped out to a 17-3 lead at the start of the third quarter, but the Broncos score 18 unanswered points to secure a narrow win. The Eagles’ offense once again struggled, and they’re currently 30th in the league in yards per game.
Meanwhile, the Giants are coming off a disappointing loss in New Orleans against the Saints. Their offense had some success in that contest, but they were ultimately done in by five turnovers (three fumbles, two interceptions). If they’re not more careful with the ball vs. the Eagles, this one could get ugly.
Let’s dive into all the top DFS options for Thursday Night Football.
NFL DFS Stud Picks
Saquon Barkley put together a historic campaign at the running back position in his first year with the Eagles. He racked up more than 2,000 rushing yards in just 16 games, and he added 15 touchdowns. He kept that production going in the postseason, tallying another 574 scrimmage yards in five scores in the Eagles’ four playoff contests. Barkley was rewarded with the Offensive Player of the Year award, and he earned the No. 1 spot in the NFL’s Top 100 list.
However, Barkley has not looked quite the same this season. That was to be expected. Players who garner as large a workload as Barkley did last year tend to struggle the following season, and the Eagles’ offensive line isn’t quite as dominant as it was in 2024. They’re merely 21st in ESPN’s Run Block Win Rate this season after ranking ninth in that department last year.
That said, the drop off for Barkley has been starker than most would’ve imagined. He’s averaging a paltry 3.2 yards per attempt, down from 5.8 in 2025. As a result, his rushing yards per game have plummeted from 125.3 in 2024 to just 53.4 through his first five games this season.
The good news is that Barkley is still getting solid utilization. He’s played on 82% of the team’s offensive snaps this season, and he’s handled 72% of the carries. He’s also seen a healthy 15% target share in the passing game.
Barkley takes on the Giants in a “revenge game” on Thursday. He only played in one of two games vs. the Giants last season, and he thoroughly enjoyed facing his old team. He racked up 176 rushing yards and one score on just 17 carries, good for 29.7 DraftKings points. The Giants are merely 30th in rush defense EPA so far this season, and they’ve allowed the seventh-most PPR points per game to the position.
Add in the potential for a favorable game script, and this could be a potential breakout spot for Barkley. There is a slight bit of concern about his knee – he told reporters he’s dealing with “general soreness” – but he practiced in full on Wednesday and was officially removed from the injury report.
Barkley’s lack of production this season hasn’t even been the team’s biggest problem on offense. The passing game has been nonexistent at times. They didn’t even complete a pass in the second half of their win over the Buccaneers in Week 4, and they’re averaging just 161.8 passing yards per game. Only the Titans have averaged fewer so far this season, and they’re possibly the worst team in football.
Part of the Eagles’ struggles in the passing game stems from their offensive philosophy. They have the ninth-lowest pass rate in the league, so they throw the ball less than most squads. However, they’ve also been less efficient when they have taken to the air this season. Jalen Hurts has averaged just 7.40 adjusted yards per attempt after sitting at 8.42 last year.
Hurts has still managed to punch in four scores with his legs, so he’s seventh at the position in terms of fantasy points per game. He just hasn’t had the same slate-breaking upside to start the year. He’s managed to crack 25+ fantasy points just once in his first five games, which is something that he did with regularity in 2024.
Unfortunately, this matchup sets up for more of the same for the Eagles. The Giants’ defense has been better against the pass than the run, so Philly could look to keep the ball on the ground. That’s particularly true with the team favored by more than a touchdown. Hurts does have a solid track record as a big favorite, averaging 24.48 DraftKings points when favored by at least a touchdown (per the Trends tool), but he might not have as much upside as you think in this spot.
Still, he leads all players in median and ceiling projection in our NFL Models. He has an optimal lineup rate of greater than 80% in Sim Labs between the Captain and FLEX spots, so he’s a very tough fade.
The Giants also have two players priced in the stud tier, though it’s significantly tougher to get excited about them.
Jaxson Dart has made two starts for the Giants at quarterback, and he’s turned in two passable fantasy performances. He delivered 19.84 DraftKings points at home vs. the Chargers, and he followed that up with 18.58 DraftKings points in New Orleans last week.
Dart’s legs have been his biggest fantasy asset by far. He’s rushed for more than 50 yards in both contests, and he added a rushing score in the win over Los Angeles. However, his production as a passer has left a lot to be desired, averaging just 4.72 adjusted yards per attempt.
Dart is going to have to make due without two of his top pass-catchers in this matchup. Malik Nabers was already out for the season, while Darius Slayton will miss this week’s contest with a hamstring injury. Those are the team’s two biggest downfield threats, and the offense could struggle to move the ball without them.
Philly’s defense remains one of the best in football, and they’ve allowed the 10th-fewest fantasy points per game to the position. Dart’s projections in this spot are very modest, but he’s still a quarterback in the single-game format. Those players will always have some appeal, especially when they’re capable of producing with their legs.
Cam Skattebo rounds out this tier, and he’s the riskiest option in the stud tier by a wide margin. He seems massively overpriced, resulting in the second-worst projected Plus/Minus on the entire slate.
Skattebo has operated as the Giants’ bell-cow back in back-to-back games, but he’ll have a bit of competition for touches with Tyrone Tracy rejoining the rotation on Thursday. Skattebo should still be the team’s lead back, but he might not enjoy the same level of utilization that he has in previous weeks. Skattebo has posted a negative Plus/Minus in back-to-back games without Tracy, so it’s hard to get excited about his prospects in an awful spot vs. the Eagles.
NFL DFS Midrange Picks
The Eagles’ lack of passing production has dropped both A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith into the midrange. They’re two extremely talented players, and they could be fantasy studs in different circumstances. Unfortunately, their workloads are extremely volatile on a game-to-game basis.
Brown was the Eagles’ clear top receiver last year. They still had a low pass rate in 2024, but when they did take to the air, Brown was targeted 33% of the time. That made him one of the biggest alphas in football, and it allowed him to post some excellent fantasy numbers.
Unfortunately, his target share is down slightly to 27% this season, and he’s scored just one touchdown through his first five games.
That said, there are still plenty of positives with Brown. Excluding a weird Week 1 performance, Brown has posted at least eight targets in four straight games. He has a 31% target share over that time frame, and he has 38% of the team’s air yards. He simply hasn’t connected with Hurts on the same level that they did in previous years. There should be better performances on the horizon.
Smith has been the team’s No. 1 receiver from a production standpoint of late, going for at least 20 DraftKings points in two of their past three contests. That said, he’s still clearly behind Brown in the pecking order. His 25% target share for the year is still a solid figure, but it’s not in the same stratosphere as Brown’s. That makes it tough to justify him being just -$200 cheaper.
However, Smith does have a better correlation with Hurts. He and his quarterback are at +0.31, while Brown and Hurts are at just +0.14. Ironically, Brown has a better correlation with Smith than he does with his quarterback, so stacking all three players together is extremely viable. This may not be the ideal opponent or game script for that strategy, but it’s at least something to consider.
Wan’Dale Robinson started the year with two solid performances, including a massive 31.2 DraftKings points vs. the Cowboys in Week 2. However, his production has dipped since then, topping out at 8.2 DraftKings points over his next three contests.
Robinson did get up to seven targets last week, though that was just an 18% target share on Dart’s 40 attempts. Overall, Robinson has a 21% target share in two games with the rookie quarterback at the helm.
Ultimately, Robinson should be the team’s de facto No. 1 receiver with Nabers and Slayton out of the picture, but it remains to be seen how valuable that role actually is with Dart under center. He’s a reasonable option at his current salary, but he’s far from a must.
Tracy is priced at $7,000 on DraftKings for his first game back, and that is a ridiculously high figure. He had lost the top RB job to Skattebo even before getting hurt, so he’s a clear backup at this point.
He’s a bit more reasonable on FanDuel, where his $5,800 salary comes with a 96% Bargain Rating. If Tracy can assume the work passing downs – he had 71% of those snaps in the first two weeks – that could be enough for him to provide some value at that figure.
Dallas Goedert has been surprisingly consistent for the Eagles’ inconsistent passing game. He’s cracked double-digit fantasy points in all four games this season, and he’s posted a solid 19% target share. However, his production stems primarily from the fact that he’s caught four touchdowns. He’s had 44 yards or fewer in all four games this season, and he’s had four catches or fewer in three of them.
That makes Goedert feel much riskier than his recent production would suggest. If he doesn’t find the paint vs. the Giants, he’s not likely to return value.
Speaking of touchdowns, Theo Johnson has scored three of them since Dart took over at quarterback. The second-year tight end has been a preferred target for the rookie quarterback, garnering 12 total targets over the past two weeks.
His utilization since Dart has taken over has been excellent: 70% route participation, 21% target share, 75% end zone share. The Eagles have been tough on tight ends this season, allowing the fourth-fewest PPR points per game, but Johnson’s stock is clearly on the rise.
NFL DFS Value & Punt Picks
- Defenses & Kickers – These options are always in play in the single-game format. The kickers have the best projected Plus/Minus marks of the group, and Jake Elliott appears the most undervalued in Sim Labs. His optimal lineup is close to 30% in the FLEX, while his ownership projection is closer to 27%.
- Jahan Dotson ($3,400 DraftKings, $ FanDuel) – Dotson had his best performance of the year in Week 1. Since then, it’s been a lot of empty cardio. That’s pretty much what we saw out of Dotson in 2024, who was on the field for plenty of snaps but struggled to generate targets. I wouldn’t expect much different vs. the Giants.
- Jalin Hyatt ($3,200 DraftKings, $ FanDuel) – With Slayton joining Nabers on the sidelines, it opens the door for someone to step up in the Giants’ passing attack. Hyatt stands out as one potential option. He’s been a disappointment since being drafted in the third round in 2023, but he has the speed to serve as the team’s deep threat. He garnered three targets last week vs. the Saints, though he failed to catch any of them. He’s had a route participation of at least 54% in back-to-back weeks, so he could take another step forward without Slayton.
- Beaux Collins ($3,000 DraftKings, $ FanDuel) – Collins is an undrafted rookie, and he also has the potential to get in the mix at receiver for the Giants. He wasn’t on the field as much as Hyatt last week, which seemingly puts Collins behind him in the pecking order.
- Daniel Bellinger ($2,800 DraftKings, $ FanDuel) – Bellinger might be the best target for the Giants in this price range. The team used a lot of two-TE sets last week, and Bellinger was targeted on 29% of his routes run. Dart clearly likes to lean on the tight ends, so he could be busy once again.
- Devin Singletary ($2,000 DraftKings, $ FanDuel) – With Tracy back in the fold, it’s possible that Singletary doesn’t even see the field on Thursday. He played on just 16% and 6% of the snaps in the first two weeks, so he’s not really an option.
Pictured: Saquon Barkley (26)
Photo Credit: Kim Klement Neitzel-Imagn Images
