The final contest of NFL Week 5 has the potential to be a good one. The Chiefs will head to Jacksonville to take on the Jaguars, with Kansas City listed as 3.5-point road favorites. The total for this contest sits at 45.5 points.
Jacksonville is off to a solid start this season, winning three of its first four games. Their lone loss came against the Bengals in Week 2, and it was a game that could’ve very easily gone in their direction.
Meanwhile, the Chiefs have picked up back-to-back wins after starting the year at 0-2. Their offense looked better than it has in years in their Week 4 win over the Ravens, though it remains to be seen how much of that was due to Baltimore’s ineptitude. Still, the Chiefs have made the Super Bowl in five of the past six seasons, so there’s certainly no denying their ability.
Let’s dive into all the top DFS options for Monday Night Football.
NFL DFS Stud Picks
Patrick Mahomes may not be the best quarterback in football anymore. He’s fallen statistically behind some of his peers, though he remains the gold standard when it comes to winning football games. He already has three Super Bowl victories, putting him behind just Tom Brady, Joe Montana, and Terry Bradshaw.
However, Mahomes has had a bit of a resurgence from a fantasy perspective in 2025. He’s averaged 22.4 fantasy points through his first four starts, good for the third-best average at the QB position. The Chiefs have had no semblance of a run game so far this season, so Mahomes has had to keep the chains moving by himself. He’s had at least 37 pass attempts in three of his first four games, and he also leads the team with 130 rushing yards and two rushing TDs. Ultimately, Mahomes is responsible for all but one of the Chiefs’ touchdowns so far this season.
Mahomes is coming off his best performance as a passer in Week 4, which coincides with Xavier Worthy’s return to the lineup. Mahomes threw four touchdowns with 270 yards vs. the Ravens, resulting in 27.3 DraftKings points.
However, Mahomes will face a much stiffer test on Monday. The Jaguars’ defense has been solid to start the year, and they’ve earned the No. 2 coverage grade from PFF. They’re third in pass defense EPA overall.
Still, they have allowed the 11th-most fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks this season, despite playing a pretty mediocre string of opposing passers. Outside of Joe Burrow, who eventually left that game due to injury, the Jaguars have faced Bryce Young, C.J. Stroud, and a banged-up Brock Purdy. Mahomes will be their toughest test to date, so we’ll find out more about them in this contest.
Mahomes unsurprisingly leads the slate in most projection categories, including median, ceiling, and Plus/Minus. He’s also projected for the most ownership on the slate, though he makes for a really tough fade. His optimal lineup rate is nearly 90% between the Captain and FLEX spots, though he figures to be over-owned in the former and under-owned in the latter.
Brian Thomas Jr. is the other “stud” in this contest, though it’s hard to use that term to describe what Thomas has done this season. He has just 12 catches for 164 yards and zero touchdowns through four weeks, making him WR47 in terms of PPR points per game.
Of course, we know Thomas is capable of much more. We saw that during his phenomenal rookie season. He racked up 87 catches, 1,282 receiving yards, and 10 touchdowns in his first season, and only Ja’Marr Chase, Amon-Ra St. Brown, and Justin Jefferson scored more fantasy points at the position.
Thomas still has plenty of time to turn his season around. He still leads the team with a 23% target share, and he’s been at 24% or higher in three of four games. The biggest issue has been the qualify of his targets this season. Just 65% have been deemed catchable, which is down from 74% during his rookie year.
Thomas will also have to navigate a brutal matchup. The Chiefs have had some struggles against the run, but they’ve been nails against the pass. They’re fifth in pass defense EPA, and they have the No. 1 coverage grade per PFF. They’ve allowed the sixth-fewest PPR points per game to opposing receivers, so this doesn’t feel like a particularly good breakout spot.
However, Thomas isn’t expected to be particularly popular on this slate, and no one has a larger gap between optimal Captain rate and projected Captain ownership. He has the third-highest optimal rate at Captain overall, making him a pretty interesting choice for the top spot.
NFL DFS Midrange Picks
Travis Etienne is off to a phenomenal start this season. That wasn’t always expected to be the case. He had lots of competition for touches, but his outlook got much stronger after the team traded away Tank Bigsby. Now, Etienne only has to compete with rookie Bhayshul Tuten, and Etienne is getting the best of that split.
Etienne is still not working as a true bell-cow, but he’s handled 61% of the snaps and 62% of the carries in the Jags’ backfield. He’s been at 67% or greater from a carry standpoint in back-to-back weeks, and he’s averaging an absurd 6.1 yards per carry. He probably won’t be able to maintain that efficiency all year, but he could still be poised for the best season of his career.
Etienne is a clear target against a porous Chiefs’ run defense. They’re dead last in rush defense EPA, and they have the fourth-worst rush defense grade per PFF. Etienne has had at least 16 carries in three of four games, and if he gets back to that mark in this contest, he’ll have a chance to do some damage.
Conversely, it seems as though the Trevor Lawrence breakout is never going to happen. Lawrence isn’t a bad quarterback, but he’s far from what we expected after being drafted first overall in 2021. If anything, he’s taken a step backward in 2025, tallying just five touchdown passes with four interceptions through the first four weeks. His average of 5.31 adjusted yards per attempt is also his worst mark since his rookie season.
Still, Lawrence is a quarterback, and quarterbacks are always going to have appeal in the single-game format. They score more fantasy points than players at other positions in a vacuum, and Lawrence ranks second only to Mahomes in median and ceiling projection. Even in a tough matchup, he has plenty of appeal at just $9,200.
Worthy might be the most underpriced option on this slate. We saw him step into a No. 1 receiver role for the Chiefs down the stretch last season, but he exited Week 1 after just one drive this year. However, he returned to the lineup last week, and he torched the Ravens in his first full game. He had eight targets for five catches and 83 yards, and he added two carries and 38 yards on the ground.
Overall, Worthy played on just 71% of the team’s pass plays last week, but he was targeted on 27% of them. He should take on more of an every-down role moving forward, giving him immense upside as the team’s No. 1 option.
The only caveat is that Worthy was a late addition to the injury report after waking up with swelling in his ankle on Sunday. He’s expected to play in this contest, but it might be another week where his usage is limited. Still, Worthy proved he can make the most of a limited workload last week, so there’s no reason to shy away from him at this price tag. At a minimum, Worthy makes for an elite stacking partner with his quarterback, with the two players owning a +0.44 correlation on DraftKings.
It’s a lot harder to get excited about Travis Kelce. He’s posted a negative Plus/Minus in all four games this season, and his target share is down to 16% for the year. He’s made more of an impact in the podcast studio and as Taylor Swift’s muse than he has on the football field.
Despite that fact, his salary has stayed pretty stagnant heading into Week 5. There’s no reason to expect much different, especially with Worthy now back in the fold.
Hollywood Brown looks like he’s going to be the biggest loser from Worthy rejoining the rotation. He led the receiving corps in targets through the first three weeks, but he dipped to a 60% route participation and 15% target share last week. He did manage to catch his first touchdown of the season, but he finished with just three catches and 38 yards.
With his volume on the decline, Brown stands out as overpriced at $7,000.
Travis Hunter was billed as the NFL’s Shohei Ohtani – a generational talent capable of excelling on offense and defense. It’s only been four games, but so far, the results have been pretty uninspiring. He has just 13 catches for 118 yards at receiver, and his snaps on defense have been pretty limited.
We only care about Hunter’s offensive production for fantasy purposes, and what we’ve seen has been underwhelming: 16% target share, 15% air yard share, and 13% end zone share. His route participation has also dipped since Week 1, sitting at 70% or lower in three straight weeks.
It’s not entirely Hunter’s fault, with the passing game in general struggling to get anything going. But it’s pretty clear that Hunter is not going to dominate the NFL the same way he did in college (at least this year). He’s not a particularly strong target on DraftKings, though his salary has plummeted to just $4,800 on FanDuel. That results in a 96% Bargain Rating, so he has some buy-low appeal on that site.
Isiah Pacheco managed to catch a touchdown last week, and he did average a season-best 5.0 yards per carry as a runner. Unfortunately, that’s where the good news ends. He saw just seven carries vs. the Ravens despite the Chiefs leading throughout, and he continues to be stuck in a three-person committee in the team’s backfield. Ultimately, he played on just 37% of the team’s snaps last week, and he saw just 27% of their carries.
Unless Pacheco can find the paint once again in Week 5, it’s unlikely that he’s going to be able to pay off his current price tag. The cheaper backs in this offense have similar outlooks.
Tyquan Thornton was an afterthought for the Chiefs heading into the season, but he got on the field for significant stretches following the injury to Worthy. He took full advantage of the situation, racking up 14 targets, seven catches, 128 yards, and two touchdowns in Weeks 2 and 3.
Unfortunately, Thornton was relegated to a part-time role with Worthy back in the fold in Week 4. He was on the field for just 38% of the team’s passing plays, and he saw just two targets. He did manage to score on his only reception, but he appears to be heading back to a reserve role. That makes him extremely risky at his current price tag.
NFL DFS Value & Punt Picks
- Defenses & Kickers – These options are always in play in the single-game format. Cam Little has the best projected Plus/Minus of the group, while the Jaguars Defense appears the most undervalued per Sim Labs. They have a 20% optimal lineup rate in the FLEX spot, but they’re checking in with just 16.2% projected ownership.
- JuJu Smith-Schuster ($4,800 DraftKings, $6,000 FanDuel) – Unlike some of his teammates, Smith-Schuster’s role actually grew with Worthy back in the fold in Week 4. He had a season-high 83% route participation, and he posted a 15% target share. That bodes well for his involvement moving forward.
- Brenton Strange ($4,600 DraftKings, $4,600 FanDuel) – Strange has been a steady part of the Jaguars’ passing attack this season, with his 76% route participation standing out as a solid mark at the tight end position. He’s also posted a target share of at least 20% in back-to-back games.
- Kareem Hunt ($4,200 DraftKings, $5,200 FanDuel) – Hunt has been the Chiefs’ top back in terms of snaps and carries, and he also has the edge in short-yardage opportunities. He seems like the most likely of the Chiefs’ RBs to score a touchdown, which is where most of the value in this backfield is going to come from. That makes him the strongest option of the bunch.
- Parker Washington ($3,600 DraftKings, $5,000 FanDuel) – Washington’s role for the Jaguars has steadily grown throughout the season, culminating in an 88% route participation last week. He didn’t see a ton of opportunities in that contest, but he had a 26% target share the week prior. That gives him plenty of appeal in this price range.
- Brashard Smith ($3,200 DraftKings, $3,000 FanDuel) – Smith is a rookie, and he saw his most extensive action in Week 4. Part of that stemmed from the game turning into a blowout, but Smith also saw work as the Chiefs’ third-down back early in the game. He finished with four targets in that role, which could give him some value if he maintains it moving forward.
- Bhayshul Tuten ($2,800 DraftKings, $5,600 FanDuel) – Tuten has home-run-hitting speed, and he’s seen a solid handful of attempts in his first four outings. He has a chance to rip off a big run against a subpar defense.
- Noah Gray ($2,400 DraftKings, $3,400 FanDuel) – Gray isn’t playing quite as much as he did last year, though he’s always a threat for a cheap touchdown.
- Dyami Brown ($2,000 DraftKings, $4,000 FanDuel) – Brown’s absence in Week 4 is part of the reason why Washington was able to take a step forward. He’ll return vs. the Chiefs, and he’s been just as productive as BTJ and Hunter in this passing attack this year. He doesn’t have quite as many targets, but his 10 catches for 116 yards and a touchdown are pretty similar to the team’s top two options.
- Hunter Long ($1,600 DraftKings, $2,000 FanDuel) – Long has an 18% route participation in back-to-back weeks, though he’s earned three targets in both contests. He also has two touchdowns for the year.
- LeQuint Allen ($400 DraftKings, $2,200 FanDuel) – Allen has served as the Jaguars’ long-yardage back to start the year, though it’s resulted in a paltry 2% target share.
Pictured: Travis Etienne
Photo Credit: Imagn
