Sunday Night Football in NFL Week 4 features an old-school rivalry. The Dallas Cowboys will host the Green Bay Packers in a battle between teams with a combined nine Super Bowl victories.
Unfortunately, these teams are headed in different directions. The Cowboys traded Micah Parsons to the Packers before the start of the year, and he has propelled the Packers to an elite start. They’re 2-1 after last week’s surprising defeat in Cleveland, but they’re still among the favorites to win the NFC.
Conversely, the Cowboys have been an absolute disaster on defense. Their offense also took a hit with CeeDee Lamb suffering an injury in Week 3, leaving the team without a ton of hope moving forward. They’re currently listed as 6.5-point home underdogs in this matchup, while the total sits at 46.5 points.
Let’s dive into all the top DFS options for Sunday Night Football.
You can check out our in-depth SimLabs guide here if you want to use our NFL DFS sims to effortlessly create advanced NFL DFS lineups.
Finally, make sure to check out all the projections available for purchase (Chris Raybon’s come included with a FantasyLabs subscription) within the FantasyLabs Models. Subscribers now have the option to purchase Derek Carty’s THE BLITZ from our Marketplace. Projections from One Week Season and Establish the Run are available if you’re a subscriber to those specific sites (our optimizer is a separate add-on feature).
You can also combine them to create your own aggregate DFS projections:
NFL DFS Stud Picks
With Lamb on the sidelines, this game doesn’t feature a ton of DFS firepower. Josh Jacobs is the highest-priced option on this slate, but he’s had a middling start to his season. He’s averaged 13.6 PPR points per game through the first three weeks, which is good for 18th-most at the position. Most of his production has come from touchdowns, with Jacobs finding the paint twice in three games. He’s struggled to get much going on the ground, averaging just 3.1 yards per carry, and he had been minimally involved as a pass catcher before last week’s nine-target eruption.
The good news is that Jacobs is still getting bellcow usage. He’s been on the field for 76% of the team’s offensive snaps, and he’s dominated the attempts at running back. He’s racked up 58 carries through three weeks, while Emmanuel Wilson is second at the position with nine. Jacobs also gets all of the opportunities from around the goal line, which makes him a major threat to find the paint each week.
The matchup vs. the Cowboys is about as good as it gets. While they haven’t been quite as bad against the run as they have against the pass, Jacobs has historically thrived as a large favorite. He’s historically averaged a Plus/Minus of +4.06 when favored by at least four points, per the Trends tool.
Jacobs failed to take full advantage of the same situation last week, but the Browns defense is worlds better than the Cowboys. The Packers are implied for 26.5 points in this matchup, and if they’re going to score that much, Jacobs figures to get in on the action.
Ultimately, he has the top ceiling projection among the non-quarterbacks on this slate. He also stands out as one of the better options from a value standpoint, owning the second-best projected Plus/Minus among players priced above $4,400.
Jordan Love is the other stud option on this slate, and how you approach him and Jacobs will be an important factor. They have a correlation of -0.21, so one tends to succeed at the expense of the other. You can still potentially play both together on a one-game slate, but most people are expected to gravitate towards Love. He’s projected for a slate-high 69.7% ownership in the flex spot, compared to just 26.01% for Jacobs.
It’s easy to see why folks are lining up for Love in this matchup. Dallas has been absolutely shredded through the air in their first three contests. They’re 31st in pass defense EPA, and they’ve allowed the most fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks by a wide margin. Love leads the slate with a +4.5 Opponent Plus/Minus, and no one else is above +1.1.
However, Love hasn’t exactly lit things up to start the year. The Packers’ defense has been so good that Love hasn’t really needed to air it out. He’s been relatively efficient, averaging 9.21 adjusted yards per attempt with five touchdowns and one interception, but he’s averaged just 26 pass attempts per game. That volume has resulted in mediocre fantasy scoring, with Love ranking as QB18 in fantasy points per game.
Love has also experienced significant home/road splits throughout his career. He’s averaged just 16.39 DraftKings points per game on the road, compared to 18.84 per game at home. Love’s worst performance this year came away from Lambeau Field, scoring just 12.12 DraftKings points last week vs. the Browns.
Ultimately, Love has plenty of upside in this spot, but he also has more downside than you might think. If the Packers build a comfortable lead as expected, they could just try to coast to the finish line with Jacobs. Sim Labs expects Love to be the most over-owned Captain with 10.2% projected ownership and a 5.2% optimal rate, but he should make his way into the winning lineup in the flex spot.
NFL DFS Midrange Picks
With Lamb now sidelined, the coast is clear for George Pickens to operate as the Cowboys’ No. 1 receiver. He’s already seen nine targets in back-to-back games, which he’s converted into 10 catches, 136 yards, and two touchdowns. He’s finished with exactly 17.8 DraftKings points in back-to-back contests.
Pickens’ target share jumped to a season-high 21% last week, and he was targeted on 23% of his routes run. It’s possible that both figures creep a bit higher in a full game with Lamb out of the picture.
However, Pickens is going to have to navigate a pretty brutal matchup. The Packers have graded out as a top-five defense rushing the passer and from a coverage standpoint, per PFF, and they’ve allowed the fourth-fewest PPR points per game to opposing receivers. Ultimately, $9,800 might be a bit too expensive for Pickens overall, though he does have one of the higher ceilings on the slate.
The absence of Lamb could be particularly difficult for Dak Prescott. The Cowboys have had to air it out a lot this season, with Prescott averaging 42 attempts per game. How is he going to manage without his top receiver?
If last week is any indication, it might not be particularly well. He averaged a season low 4.53 adjusted yards per attempt despite facing a subpar Bears’ passing defense. Things are going to be significantly more difficult against the Packers.
Prescott’s projections are pretty modest for a fantasy quarterback in our NFL Models, but he’s still a quarterback. They inherently score more points than players at other positions, so they’re always going to have value in the single-game format. Still, expectations should probably be tempered.
The Cowboys’ rushing attack was a big question mark heading into the year. They completely overhauled the RB position during the offseason, following a 2024 season in which they finished as the worst rushing team in the league. Javonte Williams and Miles Sanders were brought in as free agents, while Jaydon Blue was selected in the 2025 NFL Draft. It was expected that the three players would form some sort of committee.
Instead, Williams has grabbed the top RB job by the reins. He currently sits at RB7 in terms of PPR points per game, and he’s scored at least 20.4 DraftKings points in two of his first three outings. He’s handled 64% of the team’s rushing attempts, including most of the short-yardage and pass-catching work. Ultimately, it gives him a pretty strong profile moving forward.
Attacking the Packers on the ground might be the best way to beat their defense. They’re not quite as good against the run as they have been against the pass, and Quinshon Judkins racked up 94 yards and a touchdown against them last week. The Cowboys might not have the same caliber of rushing attack, but they should at least try to establish Williams early.
This year has been pretty brutal for fantasy at the tight end position, but this contest features two of the best at the moment: Tucker Kraft and Jake Ferguson.
The Packers have dealt with some injuries at receiver to start the year, which has allowed Kraft to serve as their de facto top option in the passing game. He leads the team with a 19% target share, and he’s been on the field for 78% of their pass plays. Kraft has also seen 33% of the team’s end zone targets.
The only downside with Kraft is his current price tag. He’s all the way up at $8,600 on DraftKings, which is simply too expensive. He owns the worst projected Plus/Minus in the midrange, so he’s not particularly appealing.
Ferguson stands out as the much stronger option. He displayed excellent chemistry with Prescott dating back to last year, and he’s racked up a 26% target share through the first three weeks. That figure spiked to 33% in Week 3, and he was targeted on a massive 48% of his routes run. It’s entire possible that he, not Pickens, is the bigger beneficiary of Lamb’s absence.
He’s also expensive at $8,400, but that figure seems much more reasonable. If last week’s usage is any indication, Ferguson could be extremely busy vs. the Packers.
Matthew Golden was expected to immediately take over as the Packers’ top receiver. Unfortunately, that hasn’t been the case. They’ve eased him into NFL action over the first three weeks, and he’s garnered just an 11% target share overall.
The positive news is that his workload is steadily ticking up. With Jayden Reed out of the lineup last week, Golden played on a season-high 84% of the team’s passing plays, and he racked up 16% of the team’s targets.
Golden could take another step forward this week in an elite spot vs. the Cowboys. They’ve surrendered a few huge games already this season to opposing receivers, so Golden could easily post the best mark of his young career.
However, Romeo Doubs is the safer option in the Packers’ passing attack. He doesn’t have the same name perceived upside as Golden, who was selected in the first round of the 2025 NFL Draft, but he’s been the more productive player so far this season. He has a 15% target share, and he’s posted a positive Plus/Minus in two of his first three games. The lone exception was last week’s performance vs. the Browns, but no one on the Packers could get anything going in that matchup.
Doubs is an ideal stacking partner for Love, with the two players owning a 33% correlation on DraftKings.
NFL DFS Value & Punt Picks
- Defenses & Kickers – These options are always in play in the single-game format. The kickers stand out as the better targets in terms of projected Plus/Minus in our NFL Models, while the Packers’ Defense looks the most undervalued per Sim Labs. Their optimal lineup rate is roughly 5% higher than their projected ownership, which is the second-largest discrepancy on the slate.
- KaVontae Turpin ($4,400 DraftKings, $5,400 FanDuel) – There are going to be opportunities for other receivers to step up with Lamb sidelined. Turpin could be one of them. He had a 70% route participation in Week 3, though that resulted in just a 9% target share. Still, he did haul in two catches for 64 yards, so he has some big-play potential.
- Dontayvion Wicks ($4,000 DraftKings, $6,000 FanDuel) – Wicks quietly leads the Packers’ receiving corps in target share this season, sitting at 16%. He’s not an every-down player, but the Packers typically like to get him the ball when he’s on the field: he’s been targeted on 23% of his routes run this year. He leads the entire slate in projected Plus/Minus, so he has plenty of appeal at this figure.
- Jalen Tolbert ($3,800 DraftKings, $4,800 FanDuel) – Tolbert should be the big winner from the Lamb injury from a snap standpoint. He played on 89% of the passing plays in Week 3, and he finished with a season-high 14% target share. There’s no reason he should be cheaper than Turpin, so he’s another fantastic value.
- Miles Sanders ($3,000 DraftKings, $4,200 FanDuel) – Sanders has seen just enough work to stay relevant of late. He stole a rushing touchdown away from Williams in Week 2, and he saw nine carries in garbage time last week.
- Chris Brooks ($2,800 DraftKings, $3,200 FanDuel) – Brooks has mixed in some on passing downs at running back, but he hasn’t seen enough targets to provide value.
- Emanuel Wilson ($2,400 DraftKings, $1,800 FanDuel) – Wilson seems more like the true “backup” RB to Jacobs. He’s seen more rushing attempts this season, so he would likely be the next man up if something happened to Jacobs.
- Ryan Flournoy ($2,000 DraftKings, $3,600 FanDuel) – Flournoy saw the field a bit more in Week 3, and he’s another player who could factor into the equation at receiver for the Cowboys.
- Luke Musgrave ($1,600 DraftKings, $2,000 FanDuel) – There was some thought that the Packers might go with more two-TE sets with Reed sidelined in Week 3, but that was definitely not the case. Musgrave was on the field for just 6% of the pass plays last week, so he can be pretty safely ignored.
- Luke Schoonmaker ($600 DraftKings, $2,200 FanDuel) – If you’re going to play a backup TE, Schoonmaker is the more appealing target. He hasn’t been a huge factor for the Cowboys, but he at least has a target in each game.
Pictured: Jordan Love
Photo Credit: Scott Galvin, Imagn
