The UFC’s world tour continues with UFC Paris, the last stop before UFC Noche next week. The main event features potential middleweight title contenders Nassourdine Imavov and Caio Borralho looking to cement their title shot, with another Brazil vs. France matchup in the co-main event.
The 13-fight card has a 12:00 p.m. ET start time, so be sure to have your lineups ready to go early.
We have built out a full player-projection model using the FantasyLabs Tools and Player Models to help put together some winning DFS lineups in UFC. You can use our optimizer to build optimal lineups using these projections.
The model, created by our own Sean Koerner, is based on 10,000 simulations of all the fights. He then pulled the DraftKings score from each bout to create floor, median, and ceiling projections for every fighter. Here is how he defined each projection:
- Floor: Fighter has an 80% chance of going over this score, 20% chance of going under
- Median: Fighter has a 50% chance of going over this score, 50% chance of going under
- Ceiling: Fighter has a 20% chance of going over this score, 80% chance of going under
These should give us a better sense of which fighters we should target based on the game type – maximizing ceiling in GPPs, for example.
You can check out the projections for every fighter on Saturday’s card in our UFC Models.
Main Event
Caio Borralho ($8,400) vs. Nassourdine Imavov ($7,800)
UFC President Dana White has gone on record saying the next middleweight title challenger will be determined by either this fight or Renier de Ridder vs. Anthony Hernandez. That raises the stakes here, as simply winning won’t be enough, as putting on an impressive performance could be what’s needed to earn a title shot.
That’s especially true for the underdog Imavov, who has failed to gain much traction with fans despite his four-fight win streak that includes a knockout over former champion Israel Adesanya. He’s 8-2 in the UFC overall, with a well-rounded style reflecting the kickboxing he’s learned in his adopted homeland of France, as well as the grappling skills his native Dagestan is known for.
I’m not sure how much grappling he’ll choose to do against Borralho, a dangerous submission artist. Borralho averages about twice the takedowns as Imavov in the UFC. However, Borralho is also dangerous on the feet, with knockdowns in his last three bouts.
Either fighter could win this on their feet or on the ground, which is what makes it such an intriguing matchup. Borralho is justifiably more expensive, though, with better knockdown and takedown rates. To frame that differently, the odds of Imavov winning a low-scoring fight are probably a good bit higher than Borralho’s.
For that reason, I’ll be heavy on the Brazilian favorite for GPPs, but stacking this one in cash games. I’m not confident enough in the winner to pick a side, though the value elsewhere on the slate means you probably could if you have a strong feeling one way or the other.
The Easy Chalk
Oumar Sy ($9,500)
Some weeks there’s a plethora of heavy favorites with solid stoppage odds, and picking the right one is the key to the slate. This is not one of those weeks.
Oumar Sy is the heaviest favorite on the slate by a wide margin, with current moneyline odds approaching -500. His fight against Brendson Riberio ($6,700) also is tied for the best stoppage odds on the slate, giving Sy the best odds of picking up a finish by a wide margin.
The French light heavyweight can get there on his feet or on the mat, with his eight career finishes evenly split between knockouts and submissions. He suffered his first career loss in June to UFC veteran Alonzo Menifield (10-5 UFC record) but now gets a significant step back against Riberio (2-3 UFC record.)
Riberio also fought in June, where he suffered a first-round TKO loss. Returning this quickly is probably a bad idea, especially since that’s his fourth T/KO loss as a pro and second in the UFC. Sy’s got plenty of power, and Riberio’s chin is highly suspect.
If he’s able to find the button early, Sy could easily post the top score, and an extended fight gives him plenty of chances to pile up takedowns, so he’s a fairly safe bet for a big number on Saturday.
The Upside Plays
Mason Jones ($8,600)
Unlike with the easy chalk selection, we have plenty of reasonable options for the upside play. They run the gamut from slightly risky fighters with solid finishing odds like Modestas Bukauskas ($9,300) and Sam Patterson ($8,700) to fighters who can get there with grappling, like Sam Hughes ($9,200) and Jones.
Jones is in his second stint in the UFC, and he showed a new game plan in his reintroduction to the company. He picked up eight takedowns against Jeremy Stephens as a massive favorite, good for 118 DraftKings points. He’ll likely look to continue that strategy this time around against Bolaji Oki ($7,600).
Oki is 2-1 in the UFC, but his record is fairly misleading. He won a split decision in his debut, got submitted by Chris Duncan, and then snuck by with a 29-28 decision over short-notice replacement Michael Aswell in his last fight.
Jones is a big step up over both of the fighters who’ve beaten Oki, and none of them posed the same grappling threat that Jones does. While he’s not especially likely to pick up a finish, he’ll still score well if he’s able to dominate on the ground, especially relative to his $8,600 salary.
Updated on 12/5/25
The Value Play
Kaue Fernandes ($6,800)
We have one of the more obvious value plays in a long time this weekend, with Kaue Fernandes getting a last-minute opponent switch after salaries dropped.
Originally, Fernandes was set to face Frenchman Fares Ziam as one of the biggest underdogs on the card. Now Ziam is out, and in his place is UFC debutante Harry Hardwick ($7,500), who comes in as the underdog despite his higher salary.
Hardwick is the brother of former DWCS contestant George Hardwick, and like his brother, a (now former) Cage Warriors champion. However, he won that belt at featherweight and is moving up a weight class for his short-notice UFC shot.
This is still likely to be a close fight, with the slick boxing of Hardwick posing a real threat to Fernandes. However, the size difference and lack of training camp are fairly large hurdles to overcome. More importantly, Fernandes is priced like a huge underdog but is a -175 or so favorite, making him an extremely obvious cash game play.
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The Contrarian Choices
Robert Ruchala ($7,200)
It’s a big week for Polish MMA, with three of their fighters competing on the card in France. One of those is Ruchala, the KSW featherweight champion who is making his debut against William Gomis ($9,000).
I was somewhat surprised to see Ruchala as a heavy underdog here, considering he’s gone 8-1 in KSW, a relatively high-level organization. Plus, Gomis is 4-1 in the UFC, with three of those wins coming via contested decisions, with a relatively safe style that makes it hard for him to pull away in fights.
That’s not how Ruchala operates, with all four of his KSW title fights ending with somebody getting knocked out. He has the bulk of the finishing upside here, giving him a solid ceiling and floor combination.
While Ruchala is unlikely to win a close decision in France, he should still be able to score reasonably well in a loss that goes 15 minutes.
Robert Bryczek ($7,100)
Bryczek is another Polish fighter on this card, though he spent most of his pre-UFC career in the Czech-based Oktagon promotion. It’s the second UFC appearance for him, after he dropped a disappointing decision in his debut against Ihor Potieria.
He gets a relatively favorable matchup this time, though, against longtime UFC veteran Brad Tavares ($9,100). While Tavares had a solid run early in his UFC career, he’s now 37 and in his 15th year in the promotion.
Tavares has clearly lost a step, going 2-4 with two knockout losses over his last six bouts. Both wins came against fighters even older than he is, and the two knockouts are a bad sign for the previously extremely durable Hawaiian.
The case for Bryczek is the same as for Ruchala, as they’re both taking on fighters with limited finishing ability. That means the worst-case scenario is a solid score in a decision loss. Bryczek also doesn’t have to worry about close decisions going to the hometown fighter since he’s taking on an American, which further helps his cause.
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The Swing Fight
Mauricio Ruffy ($8,800) vs. Benoit Saint-Denis ($7,400)
While it’s the co-main event, the lightweight matchup between Mauricio Ruffy and Benoit Saint-Denis is easily my favorite fight on the UFC Paris card.
The favorite is Mauricio Ruffy, another Fighting Nerds team member on a big win streak. The 12-1 Brazilian has 11 career knockouts and still managed to drop James Llontop in his only fight that hit the final bell.
On the other side of the cage is Benoit Saint-Denis, who has finished all 14 of his professional victories, six of which came in the UFC. The former French special forces operative is also a BJJ national champion and fights with an all-out style that typically leads to a quick finish.
Both fighters are cardio liabilities, and whoever remains fresher in this one could come away with the win. As I wrote in my betting preview, I also think that whichever man is able to dictate the range by pressing forward will have a big edge here.
I’m leaning towards the favored Ruffy, as I believe his footwork is the sharper of the pair. However, it’s closer than the DFS salaries indicate and tied for the best odds to end inside the distance. That makes it a must to roster one fighter or the other in your GPP lineups.
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Pictured: Caio Borralho
Photo Credit: Imagn Images
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