Can you feel it? The excitement of football season is officially in the air!
We still have plenty of time before the first regular season contest, but we can start to quench our thirst for football with the preseason. The Hall of Fame Game between the Chargers and Lions takes place on Thursday, officially starting the exhibition season.
If you’re new to preseason DFS, it can be a bit intimidating. It’s a completely different animal than the regular season, with lots of unfamiliar names and strategies.
Fortunately, there are a few trends we can lean on:
1. Defenses & Kickers are Your Friends
In general, scoring in the preseason is lower than it is during the regular season. There are worse quarterbacks getting most of the snaps, which can also lead to more turnovers.
Defense is also the only position that is guaranteed to be on the field for the entire game. It doesn’t matter if the first-, second-, or third-string defenders are out there – they all rack up fantasy points for the defensive unit.
That results in a massive boon for the value of fantasy defenses. Fantasy defenses average just under eight points per game during the preseason, which is nearly two full points more than every other position (per Establish the Run).
Kickers have historically been the third-highest scoring group during the preseason, just slightly behind quarterbacks. You’re going to want exposure to kickers.
2. Target Playing Time Over Talent
This is probably true for regular-season DFS as well, but it’s imperative in the preseason. Finding out how teams plan to distribute their snaps to each position group is the biggest challenge of the preseason. If you can identify which quarterbacks, running backs, and receivers are going to see the most opportunities, you’re halfway towards building a winning lineup.
That’s particularly true early in the preseason. Most teams are going to lean very heavily on the bottom of their depth chart in the Hall of Fame Game and Week 1. Some select starters may see a drive or two, but this is the time when coaches and GMs figure out the bottom of their 53-man roster. Getting to the regular season with their starters healthy is typically more important than shaking off any rust accumulated during the offseason.
If you can find a quarterback who is set to play big snaps, they are an extremely difficult fade in the preseason. They become the best plays on the slate, while running backs have more value than receivers.
3. Tight Ends Don’t Matter
Unless you’re forced to roster a tight end, don’t do it. The position is an absolute dumpster fire during the preseason. You’ll typically see a bunch of players fighting for one spot on the field, and that spot isn’t even particularly valuable. There are exceptions, but on average, tight end is the lowest-scoring position in preseason DFS by a country mile.
With the general strategy out of the way, let’s dive into some specific thoughts for Thursday’s slate.
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NFL DFS Core Picks
Kickers & Defenses
As I mentioned during the intro, don’t be shy about loading up on these guys in the preseason. I want to have at least one in all of my lineups, and I’d play as many as three. They’re some of the safest sources of points on the board, and their upside isn’t notably lower than the skill position players. Both of these teams have just one kicker – Cameron Dicker for the Chargers and Jake Bates for the Lions – so you don’t have to worry about them splitting the kicking duties.
As for the defenses, the Chargers get the slightest of edges in our NFL Models. The Lions have a long track record of not playing any key players during the preseason, while the Chargers could still use a few of their talented rookies. Coach Jim Harbaugh has stated that “traditional veteran starters” won’t play, but that doesn’t mean guys like Omarian Hampton and Tre’ Harris won’t see the field.
The only real concern here is ownership. It’s no secret that defenses and kickers are good in the preseason, so they should be among the most popular options. That’s the big reason why I would limit my exposure to a max of three per lineup instead of opting for all four.
Trey Lance
Lance stands out as arguably the top overall play of the day. The Chargers are currently carrying four quarterbacks, but Justin Herbert definitely won’t play. Taylor Heinicke will reportedly be an “emergency third quarterback” on Thursday, leaving Lance and D.J. Uiagalelei to handle all of the snaps.
Lance is expected to play the full first half and into the second before eventually ceding the reins to Uiagalelei. He can do a lot of damage with that much playing time. Lance is one of the most talented runners at the QB position, and we’ve seen him put together big performances in limited opportunities in the past. He came in for an injured Jimmy Garappolo back in 2021 and racked up 158 passing yards, two touchdowns, and 41 rushing yards in two quarters of work. He had 249 passing yards and two touchdowns in one of his five career starts.
Of course, consistency has been an issue for Lance throughout his career. It’s why he’s already on his third different team despite being the No. 3 overall pick back in 2021. Still, he clearly has some talent, and he’ll get to put that on display against a bunch of backups and guys who will be on practice squads in a few weeks.
Lance leads all players in median projection in our NFL Models, and only the defenses have higher ceiling projections.
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Hendon Hooker
While the Chargers have a clear top QB on this slate, the Lions’ situation isn’t quite as cut and dry. They’re reportedly having a battle for the backup QB job in camp, so both Hooker and Kyle Allen are expected to play pretty equally on Thursday.
It’s yet to be announced who will start at QB for the Lions, but Hooker is tentatively expected to get the nod. He’s someone that the Lions have invested in, selecting him in the third round of the 2023 NFL Draft. I’m sure they would love for him to ultimately win this competition.
Hooker was an older rookie, and he’ll turn 28 this season. He had some big college seasons at Tennessee in 2021 and 2022, and he brings solid athleticism to the position: his 4.67 40-yard dash time puts him in the 82nd percentile. As long as he’s with the starting unit – and gets to benefit from playing with the superior backups – he gets the edge over Allen.
Sioni Vaki
The Lions are looking a bit thin in the backfield on Thursday. Both Jahmyr Gibbs and David Montgomery are not expected to suit up, while two others (Jabari Small and Jacob Saylors) were only added to the roster in recent weeks. That leaves three guys – Vaki, Craig Reynolds, and Kye Robichaux – to handle most of the workload.
Injuries are the x-factor here. Vaki has dealt with a hamstring injury of late, but he returned to the lineup recently. Robichaux left practice early on 7/28 after sustaining an undisclosed injury during one-on-one drills.
In an ideal world, Reynolds wouldn’t have to play much on this slate. He’s a key special teamer for Detroit, and he played less than 10 snaps in both of his preseason games last season. I would expect a similar treatment in this contest, and he may sit all together.
As long as Vaki is ready to roll, he’s someone who could take on a sizable workload in this spot. He was a fourth-round pick in 2024, and he’s a prototypical preseason grinder. He ranks in the 90th percentile for BMI, but he didn’t get a ton of touches in college as a hybrid safety/running back. The Lions should be looking to get him some opportunities to find out if he’s a real player.
NFL DFS Fliers
Tre’ Harris
Picking out receivers is the toughest part of preseason DFS. Most teams are carrying 10+ players at the start of the preseason, so it’s tough to decipher where the snaps are going to go. That said, a receiving touchdown is almost always enough to make a receiver fantasy-relevant. For that reason, it’s worth spraying some exposure across the position and hoping you get lucky.
Typically, I would lean towards the UDFA receivers in this spot. The guys near the bottom of the depth chart are going to get more extensive playing time, and finding volume is what preseason DFS is all about.
However, I want nothing to do with Uiagalelei. He was a dreadful college quarterback, and I’m not expecting much passing production when he’s on the field. Lance may not be a huge upgrade, but he’s at least had a bit of NFL seasoning at this point.
That makes Harris an interesting option. He profiles as a potentially important part of the Chargers’ passing attack this season, and getting him up to speed should be a priority. He had more than 1,000 yards in his final collegiate season, and we’ll see how aggressive Harbaugh is with him during the preseason. Ladd McConkey was barely used last season, but he was penciled in as an immediate Day 1 starter. Harris might not have the same luxury. I wouldn’t expect a ton of snaps, but he should at least get on the field.
Dominic Lovett & Isaac TeSlaa
The Lions have a much deeper receiving corps than the Chargers. They have three established vets atop the depth chart – Amon-Ra St. Brown, Jameson Williams, and Tim Patrick – while Kalif Raymond is a valuable special teamer. All four guys have locked in roster spots, so the Lions’ rookies have a much tougher task to establish themselves.
That makes the playing time outlook for TeSlaa and Lovett look a bit rosier during the preseason. Both guys have reportedly turned heads during training camp, and this is their opportunity to put it on tape.
TeSlaa was someone that the Lions traded up for during the draft, he has an intriguing athletic profile. He ranks in the 86th percentile for 40-yard dash time, and he’s in the 97th percentile for burst score and 91st percentile for speed score. He was also a target hog at Arkansas and broke out at a young age, so he’s a solid sleeper for deeper dynasty leagues. Unfortunately, TeSlaa is a bit banged up at the moment, which could impact his availability.
Lovett was a seventh-round rookie selection, and he seems like the safer bet. He has the superior projection in our NFL Models, and he’s not dealing with an injury at the moment. He also has a steeper climb up the depth chart if he wants to make the roster, so he should get more opportunities in this contest.
When building your lineup, it’s helpful to check the NFL implied team totals.
Kimani Vidal & Jaret Patterson
Expect these two to handle most of the RB duties for the Chargers on Thursday. Hampton may get a series or two before departing quickly, while Najee Harris shouldn’t play at all. Hassan Haskins should also have a roster spot secure due to his special teams ability, so he also shouldn’t see a ton of opportunities.
Patterson was the Chargers’ workhorse during the preseason last year. He played on at least 35.3% of the team’s snaps in all three contests, and I wouldn’t expect much different on Thursday.
However, Vidal might have the higher upside. He only played in one preseason game last season, but he had a 41.2% snap share and recorded 49 rushing yards in that contest. With plenty of bodies ahead of him on the depth chart, this could be an opportunity to get an extended look at the 2024 sixth-rounder.
Ke’Andre Lambert-Smith
Lambert-Smith was a fifth-round selection for the Chargers in the 2025 NFL Draft. He has also drawn plenty of praise throughout training camp, so he’s battling for a role with the offense during the regular season. He is a true burner, blazing a 4.37 40-yard dash at the combine, and he managed 981 yards on just 50 receptions in his final collegiate season.
Lambert-Smith leads all Chargers’ receivers in projected points in our NFL Models.
D.J. Uiagalelei
As much as Uiagaleli was a disappointment in college, he’s still a quarterback who is expected to play roughly a full half on Thursday. QBs inherently score more fantasy points than most other positions, and on a showdown slate where you can play as many quarterbacks as you want, he’s certainly in the conversation. The same goes for Kyle Allen.
Pictured: Trey Lance
Photo Credit: Imagn
