The UFC remains on the road for another week, this time taking the show to Des Moines, Iowa. The card is headlined by former flyweight champion Deiveson Figueiredo taking on top-ranked bantamweight Cory Sandhagen.
Lineups lock at 7:00 p.m. ET for the 12-fight card.
We have built out a full player-projection model using the FantasyLabs Tools and Player Models to help put together some winning DFS lineups in UFC. You can use our optimizer to build optimal lineups using these projections.
The model, created by our own Sean Koerner, is based on 10,000 simulations of all the fights. He then pulled the DraftKings score from each bout to create floor, median, and ceiling projections for every fighter. Here is how he defined each projection:
- Floor: Fighter has an 80% chance of going over this score, 20% chance of going under
- Median: Fighter has a 50% chance of going over this score, 50% chance of going under
- Ceiling: Fighter has a 20% chance of going over this score, 80% chance of going under
These should give us a better sense of which fighters we should target based on the game type – maximizing ceiling in GPPs, for example.
You can check out the projections for every fighter on Saturday’s card in our UFC Models.
Main Event
Cory Sandhagen ($9,400) vs. Deiveson Figueiredo ($6,800)
The main event in Des Moines is a dream fight for cash game stacking, with two solid per-minute scorers meeting in a fight that’s -200 to go the distance.
Sandhagen has averaged a bit over five significant strikes per minute in his UFC run, putting him on pace for a whopping 125+ if the fight goes the distance. Figueiredo is the less voluminous striker but averages about a takedown and a half per 15 minutes.
Most of the underdog’s upside comes via his grappling, which he uses more heavily in certain matchups. A fight against the long, rangy striking of Sandhagen is probably one of those spots, and Sandhagen’s 63% takedown defense is nothing to be afraid of.
Sandhagen is the stronger play here overall, and the line has moved in his favor throughout the week. He’d be my favorite to finish with the highest score on the slate.
However, Figueiredo has some stoppage upside to go with his grappling and, at worst, is a strong floor play. There’s even a case for a GPP stack here on the 12-fight card, but at worst, you’re playing one or the other in every lineup.
The Easy Chalk
Mason Jones ($9,500)
The UFC is bringing back Iowa native Jeremy Stephens ($6,700) on a one-fight contract for this card. Stephens exited the promotion on a five-fight losing streak (with one no contest) and hasn’t fought in MMA since 2022.
In the meantime, he’s competed in boxing-both bare-knuckle and with gloves-most recently knocking out Eddie Alvarez for BKFC. The 38-year-old certainly can still throw hands, but that might not be the fight he gets this time around.
Mason Jones is also returning to the Octagon after going 1-2-1 in his first stint and asking for his release. He picked up four straight wins for Cage Warriors before rejoining the UFC. In his first stint with the promotion, he landed 11 takedowns across four fights.
The matchup against a fighter nearly a decade his senior who hasn’t competed in sports where grappling is allowed is perfect for his style, and that grappling upside lends itself well to DFS. He’s a rock-solid play as a -575 favorite.
The Upside Play
Montel Jackson ($8,700)
Montel Jackson didn’t earn the nickname “Quick” for nothing. Three of his last five fights have been first-round victories, and the two that went to the judges saw him score at least one knockdown in each contest.
That’s resulted in the bantamweight going over 100 DraftKings points in four of those five, with an overall average of 98.6 in his UFC career. This week, he faces a step up in competition against Daniel Marcos ($7,500), an undefeated Peruvian who is 4-0 in the UFC.
We’ve never seen Marcos dropped or even really hurt in the UFC, but he’s never fought someone with Jackson’s power. While he’s fought tougher competition overall, this is still a different style of opponent for him.
There’s plenty of risk with Jackson besides the step up in competition. He’s been extremely inactive — fighting about once a year for the last few years — and is huge for the division. While the latter isn’t inherently a bad thing, making the weight into his mid-30s will likely be a challenge.
Still, if he wins, it’s likely due to an early knockout, making him a high-variance option. I’m staying away in cash games, but he’s a great GPP play.
The Value Plays
Cameron Smotherman ($7,800)
“The Baby-Faced Killer” is both one of my favorite nicknames and plays on the card, as I’m having a hard time understanding why he’s an underdog against Serhey Sidey ($8,400). Sidey is 1-1 in the UFC, with his “win” a split decision that the vast majority of fans and media scorecards said he lost.
Both fighters are primarily strikers, but Smotherman has a noticeable speed edge. He’s a very technical boxer who jabs and works the body well, which should serve him against the taller Canadian. Neither fighter has so much as attempted a takedown in the UFC or Contender Series, so this should be primarily a striking match.
Given that Sidey was dropped by Ramon Tavares in his UFC debut and Smotherman is a much more dangerous boxer, I like how this matchup sets up for the slight underdog. This fight is also favored to hit the judges and has had line movement towards Smotherman, so he’s an underpriced high-floor option at worst.
At best, he’s able to put Sidey down and finish with one of the best scores. That’s not bad for $7,800.
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The Contrarian Choice
Reinier de Ridder ($6,900)
Reinier de Ridder is one of the bigger underdogs on the slate, as he takes on UFC super-prospect Bo Nickal ($9,300) in a matchup of elite grapplers.
I’m using the term loosely there, as the type of grappling employed by both men is vastly different. Nickal is a three-time NCAA champion wrestler, while RDR is a Judo and BJJ black belt with some of the best submissions in MMA.
In a similar stylistic matchup last year, Nickal chose to use his wrestling defensively and win a sloppy kickboxing match against Paul Craig. de Ridder, while not a great striker, to put it mildly, is considerably more of a threat on the feet than Craig.
If Nickal forces this to be a striking match, RDR will have ample opportunity to land a big shot or two that turns the tides. If it gets to the ground, the underdog has a real shot at finding a submission against the less experienced submission game of Nickal.
Plus, the name value on Nickal means he’ll be massively owned, creating huge leverage on de Ridder.
The Swing Fight
Santiago Ponzinibbio ($8,200) vs. Daniel Rodriguez ($8,000)
As is often the case in UFC DFS, getting the $8,200/$8,000 fight right could very well be the key to the slate. This time, it’s between two veteran welterweights who like to trade punches, which could lead to a quick knockout in either direction.
Santiago Ponzinibbio is a classic “get or get got” striker. Two of his last four fights have seen knockdowns for both him and his opponent, and more than half of his 20 UFC fights have ended with somebody knocked out.
Rodrioguez should be a more than willing participant in that type of fight, as “D-Rod” averages over seven significant strikes per minute while taking about five and a half. He’s somewhat more durable than Ponzinibbio, but also less powerful, so it evens out.
I like the one-shot power of Ponzinibbio more for DFS purposes, but the winner likely racks up a ton of strikes at a minimum. I’ll have plenty of both across my lineups.
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Pictured: Corey Sandhagen
Photo Credit: Imagn Images
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