The UFC makes their first-ever trip to Azerbaijan this weekend, with UFC Baku on Saturday. The main event features former light heavyweight champion Jamahal Hill taking on former title challenger Khalil Rountree.
It’s a 12-fight card, with a special early start time of 12:00 ET, so be sure to have your lineups ready to go.
We have built out a full player-projection model using the FantasyLabs Tools and Player Models to help put together some winning DFS lineups in UFC. You can use our optimizer to build optimal lineups using these projections.
The model, created by our own Sean Koerner, is based on 10,000 simulations of all the fights. He then pulled the DraftKings score from each bout to create floor, median, and ceiling projections for every fighter. Here is how he defined each projection:
- Floor: Fighter has an 80% chance of going over this score, 20% chance of going under
- Median: Fighter has a 50% chance of going over this score, 50% chance of going under
- Ceiling: Fighter has a 20% chance of going over this score, 80% chance of going under
These should give us a better sense of which fighters we should target based on the game type – maximizing ceiling in GPPs, for example.
You can check out the projections for every fighter on Saturday’s card in our UFC Models.
Main Event
Khalil Rountree ($8,400) vs. Jamahal Hill ($7,800)
With Alex Pereira (likely) out of the picture at light heavyweight, this bout has taken on a new importance. Both men hold knockout losses to the former champion but would be new opponents for Magomed Ankalaev. Despite coming off losses, both are firmly in the title picture with a win here.
It should be a purely standup affair between two dangerous strikers. In more than 25 combined UFC bouts, neither Hill nor Rountree has attempted so much as a single takedown.
Hill is more of a pure boxer, using his 79″ reach well to maintain distance and land straight punches. Rountree employs more of a Muay Thai style, kicking effectively, especially to the legs. That could be an issue for Hill, whose wide stance makes it hard to defend leg kicks and who’s had some well-publicized knee and calf injuries.
Hill has gone 0-2 since rupturing his Achilles tendon and relinquishing the 205 lbs. belt, though both losses came against former champions. He also withdrew from a fight against Carlos Ulberg with a significant knee injury.
Rountree took a brutal beating at the hands of Pereira in his last fight and has accumulated plenty of damage over his career. At age 35, it’s reasonable to wonder if he’ll ever return to his former heights.
With both men’s durability fairly questionable, a stoppage is highly likely here. I’ll be stacking it in cash games since I’m not particularly confident in which man gets it and accepting the low floor from the loser. For GPPs, one or the other should be in the vast majority of your lineups.
The Easy Chalk
Nazim Sadykhov ($9,400)
Nazim Sadykhov has seen enough line movement this week to become the heaviest favorite on the slate at select books and is also in the fight with the best odds to end by finish outside of the main event.
That makes him a pretty clear top play, as he unsurprisingly has the best odds on the slate to win by finish. Much of that is due to his opponent, Nikolas Motta ($6,800), who’s seen the judges just one in six UFC fights while being finished in each of his career losses.
While Sadykhov isn’t the suffocating grappler we prefer at the top of the salary scale, he can mix in takedowns against the right opponent. He landed four in his draw against Viacheslav Borschev and is averaging a bit over 80 DraftKings points per contest.
In a perfect world we’d get a couple of takedowns and a finish from “Black Wolf,” but he’s a fairly safe bet for one or the other. That makes him a solid play in all contest types, but especially cash games.
The Upside Play
Myktybek Orolbai ($8,500)
One fighter who does bring tremendous grappling upside is Myktybek Orolbai. He’s averaging more than five takedowns per 15 minutes in the UFC, despite fighting up a weight class on short notice in his debut and facing an elite grappler in Mateusz Rebecki most recently.
Orolbai also showed his durability and heart against Rebecki, getting his eye swollen shut in the first round but rallying back to a split decision loss. He’ll need it against Tofiq Mosayev ($7,700), a Rizin and Bellator veteran known for his fast starts and aggressive striking.
If Orlobai can fight through the initial surge from Mosaeyv, he should be able to pile up takedowns and control time on the Azerbaijan native. Mosayev has struggled with grapplers in his losses for other promotions, and Orolbai is as tough of a test as he’s faced in that department.
A quick knockout on the feet from Mosayev is also in the range of outcomes here, so Orolbai isn’t the safest play. However, he might just have the highest ceiling relative to his price tag of any fighter on the slate.
The Value Plays
Bogdan Grad ($7,400)
It’s a tough week for value, with no underdogs seeing considerable line movement in fights likely to hit the judges. In fact, no fight is shorter than +150 to end inside the distance, so it’s hard to bank on a strong floor in any individual fight.
However, there’s some cheap fighters I’m interested in. My favorite is probably Bogdan Grad, a two-time Contender Series fighter who’s 1-0 in the UFC proper. I bet on Grad in his second trip to the Contender Series, in hopes that he would use his wrestling.
That he did, picking up three takedowns in that fight and his UFC debut after suffering a KO loss in his first DWCS attempt. Grad can leave openings on the feet by getting too wild but should have a considerable grappling edge against Muhammad Naimov ($8,800).
Naimov has a taekwondo background and has been taken down nine times in five UFC/Contender Series bouts. As long as Grad chooses to press that edge, he should find some openings here.
That gives him a clear path to a big score, especially relative to his salary. Sean Zerillo and I both made a case for Grad in our latest UFC Betting Preview:
Be sure to check out all the pick’ems Sleeper has to offer with Sleeper promo code FL55.
The Contrarian Choice
Seokhyeon Ko ($6,700)
I’m struggling to see why Oban Elliott ($9,500) is such a big favorite for his fight against Seokhyeon Ko this weekend. Sure, Elliot’s 3-0 in the UFC, but it’s not exactly the most impressive resume.
He was dropped by Val Woodburn in his UFC debut, a fighter most famous for being on the wrong end of the widest betting line in UFC history when he fought Bo Nickal. Then, Elliott had a reasonably close decision against Preston Parsons before knocking out Bassi Hafez. All of those fighters have losing UFC records.
Ko is making his debut, but “The Korean Tyson” was impressive on the Contender Series, with solid power as well as a strong background in Judo and Sambo. That grappling base could be the difference here, as Elliott does his best work when he can wrestle offensively.
Plus, this is one of a few fights on the card slightly favored to go the distance, so Ko is a reasonably safe floor play even without a win. If he can pull off the upset, he’ll be a must-play at his price tag.
The Swing Fight
Ignacio Bahamondes ($8,200) vs. Rafael Fiziev ($8,000)
The truest example of a swing fight at UFC Baku is probably the main event, but the co-main event is a reasonable runner-up.
At first glance, this appears to be a classic example of the UFC feeding a veteran (Fiziev) to an up-and-coming prospect. The 27-year-old Bahamondes has won three straight fights—all in the first round—while Fiziev has lost that many.
However, two of those losses were close decisions to Justin Gaethje, the UFC’s #3-ranked lightweight, and the other came due to a knee injury. Fiziev looked solid in his return from said injury against Gaethje, despite taking that one on short notice. Prior to the first Gaethje fight, he had won six in a row and was probably a win away from title contention.
It’s an interesting stylistic matchup, with both men known for their striking but Bahamondes also bringing solid submission skills. He’s never attempted a takedown of his own in the UFC, though, so it’s unlikely he gets the chance to show them off against Fiziev.
Both fighters throw enough volume to put up big scores without takedowns, with Fiziev landing nearly five significant strikes per minute and Bahamondes over seven. With both of them also packing solid power, we could see a big score from either man in a short fight or a long one, making it a valuable addition to GPP lineups.
Interested in more action? Check out Fanatics Sportsbook and use our Fanatics Sportsbook promo code.
Pictured: Khalil Rountree
Photo Credit: Imagn Images
YOU MAY ALSO LIKE
UFC Vegas 80 DFS Breakdown: Model, Preview, Picks for Dawson vs. Green, More Saturday Fights
UFC Vegas 81 DFS Breakdown: Model, Preview, Picks for Allen vs. Craig, More Saturday Fights
UFC 306 DFS Breakdown: Model, Preview, Picks for O’Malley vs. Dvalishvili, More Saturday Fights
UFC Paris DFS Breakdown: Model, Preview, Picks for Moicano vs. Saint-Denis, More Saturday Fights
