UFC

UFC Atlanta DFS Breakdown: Model, Preview, Picks for Buckley vs. Usman More Saturday Fights

The UFC has a solid Fight Night in Atlanta this weekend, with former welterweight champ Kamaru Usman taking on the fast-rising Joaquin Buckley.

In total, we’ve got a 13-fight card, with lineups locking at 7:00 p.m. ET.

We have built out a full player-projection model using the FantasyLabs Tools and Player Models to help put together some winning DFS lineups in UFC. You can use our optimizer to build optimal lineups using these projections.

The model, created by our own Sean Koerner, is based on 10,000 simulations of all the fights. He then pulled the DraftKings score from each bout to create floor, median, and ceiling projections for every fighter. Here is how he defined each projection:

  • Floor: Fighter has an 80% chance of going over this score, 20% chance of going under
  • Median: Fighter has a 50% chance of going over this score, 50% chance of going under
  • Ceiling: Fighter has a 20% chance of going over this score, 80% chance of going under

These should give us a better sense of which fighters we should target based on the game type – maximizing ceiling in GPPs, for example.

You can check out the projections for every fighter on Saturday’s card in our UFC Models.

Become an All-Access Member Today

Lineup builder and optimizer

Real-time DFS models & projections

Data-driven analysis & tutorials,
Become a PRO Member
 

Main Event

Joaquin Buckley ($9,000) vs. Kamaru Usman ($7,200)

Former champion Kamaru Usman was also once the DFS goat, with a streak of seven straight 100+ scores on DraftKings. That includes a high-water mark of an absurd 195 points in his last fight prior to winning the belt.

He also hasn’t fought in nearly two years, with his last win coming all the way back in 2021. To his credit, he mustered solid scores in two of those losses, and the third came in a last-minute booking at welterweight. Still, now 38 years old, it’s fair to question how much he has left in the tank.

That’s especially true against an opponent like Buckley, whose rise to welterweight contention has largely come via wins against aging fighters. Buckley has won six straight in his new division, racking up four knockouts along the way.

However, Buckley’s big fantasy scores have come when he wrestles, and that’s probably not going to be an option against Usman. Buckley’s past opponents have largely been strikers, while Usman was a D2 wrestling national champion with an 89% takedown defense in the UFC.

It’s knockout or bust for Buckley from a DFS standpoint, and he needs that knockout to come early to pay off his $9,000 salary. Usman is the far better per-minute scorer historically, with a much lower bar to clear at just $7,200.

For that reason, I’ll have far more of the underdog in GPPs, and am even considering fading Buckley in cash. There are better options in the $9K range, and I want more exposure to them if possible.

The Easy Chalk

Mansur Abdul-Malik ($9,600)

Among those better options is Mansur Abdul-Malik. The undefeated 27-year-old is yet to see a third round in his career and is as high as a -1000 favorite this weekend against Cody Brundage ($6,600).

Abdul-Malik has looked unstoppable so far, rag-dolling opponents with takedowns at will or finishing them with strikes on the feet. Brundage is a near-perfect opponent for him, given his poor striking defense and huge athleticism deficit relative to Abdul-Malik.

While Brundage is 5-5 in the UFC, he’s benefited from some fluky wins and a lucky no-contest. He’s booked for this fight to make the young prospect look good, not to challenge him.

Abdul-Malik probably needs a first-round finish at his price tag, but he’s even money to get one at DraftKings. I’ll take those odds in as many lineups as I can afford him.

The Upside Play

Malcolm Wellmaker ($9,800)

Wellmaker is the other elite play at the top of the salary scale, who has a chance to close as the heaviest favorite in UFC history. The biggest odds as of Thursday night had him at -2500, but there’s a chance they grow even steeper by fight time.

He’s taking on Kris Moutinho ($6,400), who is best known for absorbing an absurd 230 significant strikes in just under three rounds against Sean O’Malley, a record for a three-round fight. Moutinho managed to remain standing despite that punishment, but the ref finally waived it off in the third round.

Then, he took a first-round standing TKO against then-42-year-old Guido Cannetti, ending his first UFC run. Now he’s back against an undefeated Wellmaker, who has first-round knockouts in both his Contender Series and UFC debuts.

Given the volume with which Wellmaker throws, if Moutinho somehow makes it the distance, there’s a chance he could take even more damage than he did against O’Malley. Either way, the likeliest outcome is either a stoppage or a ridiculous significant strike total, either of which would be solid for DFS.

The Value Plays

Ricky Simon ($8,700)

I’m listing two value plays on this card, but with vastly different reasons for both.

The first is Simon, who benefits from a last-minute opponent switch that has him as a heavier favorite than he was when salaries were first released. While he’s still somewhat pricey, his current -500 or so odds should make him about $600 more expensive.

He’s fighting Cameron Smotherman ($6,500), who comes into the fight 1-1 in the UFC and with a knockout loss on the Contender Series a few years back. Serhey Sidey took Smotherman down five times in his last fight, which was just six weeks ago.

Those were the first five UFC takedowns landed by Sidey, while Simon averages more than five per 15 minutes. This is a terrific matchup for the favorite, making him a borderline must-play.

Any roster without Simon should include Smotherman, since their combined salaries are $1,000 less than the typical UFC fight. Beyond that, Simon’s popularity will make Smotherman a massive leverage play.

Miranda Maverick ($7,100)

The more traditional value play I’m interested in is Maverick, who takes on Rose Namajunas ($9,100) in the co-main event.

Namajunas was a champion at strawweight but has gone 2-2 since moving up to flyweight. All four of those bouts went the distance (despite three of them being five-round fights), and it seems like her power doesn’t really translate to her new weight class.

Both of Namajunas’ losses at 125 lbs came against fighters with a similar archetype as Maverick: bigger, stronger, more physically imposing women. With her wrestling base and physical edge, Maverick could easily win this one outright.

Even if she doesn’t, “Thug Rose” doesn’t finish many fights, so Maverick is at worst a solid floor play. This fight is the likeliest on the card to need the judges, which should lead to an acceptable score at worst. Plus, we need the salary relief to get to fighters like Wellmaker and Abdul-Malik.

Be sure to check out all the pick’ems Sleeper has to offer with Sleeper promo code FL55.

The Contrarian Choice

Paul Craig ($6,900)

I wrote about my interest in Paul Craig the first time his fight against Rodolfo Bellato ($9,300) was booked. Here’s what I wrote then:

“A less obvious way to save salary on this slate is to roster Paul Craig. He’s a massive underdog against Rodolfo Bellato ($9,400) in a fight where the Under 1.5 round prop is favored, so the market thinks Craig gets finished quickly here.

However, Craig has pulled shocking upsets in similar spots in the past. The grappling specialist might have the best submission game in the UFC (save submission record-holder Charles Oliveira), giving him an ace in the hole in nearly any matchup.

Bellato has initiated grappling in most of his UFC bouts, which is a hard habit to break even when it’s not in his best interest. He grappled his way into trouble in his draw against Jimmy Crute, nearly getting knocked out in the process.

Plus, Bellato might have some of the worst striking defense in the UFC. He’s shown neither ability nor desire to remove his head from the path of oncoming punches and has been knocked down three times in four fights between the UFC and Contender Series.

Bellato’s ability to recover from those shots is impressive, but he’s certainly playing with fire. Craig is a bad striker (to put it mildly) — but he throws hard. If there’s anyone who could get caught by one of the Scotsman’s wild strikes, it’s Bellato.”

Nothing much has changed this time around, with Craig coming in just $100 more expensive. The need to save salary is even more pressing on this slate, so I’m trying it one more time.

The Swing Fight

Edmen Shahbazyan ($8,800) vs. Andre Petroski ($7,400)

This is a “binary fight” in every sense of the term. Not only do we have a striker (Shahbazyan) meeting a grappler, but we also have a fighter who typically finishes things quickly (also Shahbazyan) taking on one more known to go the distance.

Fortunately, the salaries are such that both men could easily pay off their price tag with their typical winning condition. The favored Shahbazyan has six stoppages (five in the first round) in his seven UFC wins, which should provide more than enough fantasy scoring at $8,800.

Petroski has three straight decision victories following his two knockout losses, but he costs just $7,400. He is also an extremely high-level grappler, which has been the kryptonite for Shahbazyan in the UFC so far.

Both men are strong where the other is weak, and either type of fight would produce a solid score for the winner. I’m much higher on Petroski when considering the price tag, but I’ll have one or the other in all of my lineups this weekend.

Interested in more action? Check out Fanatics Sportsbook and use our Fanatics Sportsbook promo code.

Pictured: Mansur Abdul-Malik
Photo Credit: Steven Bisig-Imagn Images

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The UFC has a solid Fight Night in Atlanta this weekend, with former welterweight champ Kamaru Usman taking on the fast-rising Joaquin Buckley.

In total, we’ve got a 13-fight card, with lineups locking at 7:00 p.m. ET.

We have built out a full player-projection model using the FantasyLabs Tools and Player Models to help put together some winning DFS lineups in UFC. You can use our optimizer to build optimal lineups using these projections.

The model, created by our own Sean Koerner, is based on 10,000 simulations of all the fights. He then pulled the DraftKings score from each bout to create floor, median, and ceiling projections for every fighter. Here is how he defined each projection:

  • Floor: Fighter has an 80% chance of going over this score, 20% chance of going under
  • Median: Fighter has a 50% chance of going over this score, 50% chance of going under
  • Ceiling: Fighter has a 20% chance of going over this score, 80% chance of going under

These should give us a better sense of which fighters we should target based on the game type – maximizing ceiling in GPPs, for example.

You can check out the projections for every fighter on Saturday’s card in our UFC Models.

Become an All-Access Member Today

Lineup builder and optimizer

Real-time DFS models & projections

Data-driven analysis & tutorials,
Become a PRO Member
 

Main Event

Joaquin Buckley ($9,000) vs. Kamaru Usman ($7,200)

Former champion Kamaru Usman was also once the DFS goat, with a streak of seven straight 100+ scores on DraftKings. That includes a high-water mark of an absurd 195 points in his last fight prior to winning the belt.

He also hasn’t fought in nearly two years, with his last win coming all the way back in 2021. To his credit, he mustered solid scores in two of those losses, and the third came in a last-minute booking at welterweight. Still, now 38 years old, it’s fair to question how much he has left in the tank.

That’s especially true against an opponent like Buckley, whose rise to welterweight contention has largely come via wins against aging fighters. Buckley has won six straight in his new division, racking up four knockouts along the way.

However, Buckley’s big fantasy scores have come when he wrestles, and that’s probably not going to be an option against Usman. Buckley’s past opponents have largely been strikers, while Usman was a D2 wrestling national champion with an 89% takedown defense in the UFC.

It’s knockout or bust for Buckley from a DFS standpoint, and he needs that knockout to come early to pay off his $9,000 salary. Usman is the far better per-minute scorer historically, with a much lower bar to clear at just $7,200.

For that reason, I’ll have far more of the underdog in GPPs, and am even considering fading Buckley in cash. There are better options in the $9K range, and I want more exposure to them if possible.

The Easy Chalk

Mansur Abdul-Malik ($9,600)

Among those better options is Mansur Abdul-Malik. The undefeated 27-year-old is yet to see a third round in his career and is as high as a -1000 favorite this weekend against Cody Brundage ($6,600).

Abdul-Malik has looked unstoppable so far, rag-dolling opponents with takedowns at will or finishing them with strikes on the feet. Brundage is a near-perfect opponent for him, given his poor striking defense and huge athleticism deficit relative to Abdul-Malik.

While Brundage is 5-5 in the UFC, he’s benefited from some fluky wins and a lucky no-contest. He’s booked for this fight to make the young prospect look good, not to challenge him.

Abdul-Malik probably needs a first-round finish at his price tag, but he’s even money to get one at DraftKings. I’ll take those odds in as many lineups as I can afford him.

The Upside Play

Malcolm Wellmaker ($9,800)

Wellmaker is the other elite play at the top of the salary scale, who has a chance to close as the heaviest favorite in UFC history. The biggest odds as of Thursday night had him at -2500, but there’s a chance they grow even steeper by fight time.

He’s taking on Kris Moutinho ($6,400), who is best known for absorbing an absurd 230 significant strikes in just under three rounds against Sean O’Malley, a record for a three-round fight. Moutinho managed to remain standing despite that punishment, but the ref finally waived it off in the third round.

Then, he took a first-round standing TKO against then-42-year-old Guido Cannetti, ending his first UFC run. Now he’s back against an undefeated Wellmaker, who has first-round knockouts in both his Contender Series and UFC debuts.

Given the volume with which Wellmaker throws, if Moutinho somehow makes it the distance, there’s a chance he could take even more damage than he did against O’Malley. Either way, the likeliest outcome is either a stoppage or a ridiculous significant strike total, either of which would be solid for DFS.

The Value Plays

Ricky Simon ($8,700)

I’m listing two value plays on this card, but with vastly different reasons for both.

The first is Simon, who benefits from a last-minute opponent switch that has him as a heavier favorite than he was when salaries were first released. While he’s still somewhat pricey, his current -500 or so odds should make him about $600 more expensive.

He’s fighting Cameron Smotherman ($6,500), who comes into the fight 1-1 in the UFC and with a knockout loss on the Contender Series a few years back. Serhey Sidey took Smotherman down five times in his last fight, which was just six weeks ago.

Those were the first five UFC takedowns landed by Sidey, while Simon averages more than five per 15 minutes. This is a terrific matchup for the favorite, making him a borderline must-play.

Any roster without Simon should include Smotherman, since their combined salaries are $1,000 less than the typical UFC fight. Beyond that, Simon’s popularity will make Smotherman a massive leverage play.

Miranda Maverick ($7,100)

The more traditional value play I’m interested in is Maverick, who takes on Rose Namajunas ($9,100) in the co-main event.

Namajunas was a champion at strawweight but has gone 2-2 since moving up to flyweight. All four of those bouts went the distance (despite three of them being five-round fights), and it seems like her power doesn’t really translate to her new weight class.

Both of Namajunas’ losses at 125 lbs came against fighters with a similar archetype as Maverick: bigger, stronger, more physically imposing women. With her wrestling base and physical edge, Maverick could easily win this one outright.

Even if she doesn’t, “Thug Rose” doesn’t finish many fights, so Maverick is at worst a solid floor play. This fight is the likeliest on the card to need the judges, which should lead to an acceptable score at worst. Plus, we need the salary relief to get to fighters like Wellmaker and Abdul-Malik.

Be sure to check out all the pick’ems Sleeper has to offer with Sleeper promo code FL55.

The Contrarian Choice

Paul Craig ($6,900)

I wrote about my interest in Paul Craig the first time his fight against Rodolfo Bellato ($9,300) was booked. Here’s what I wrote then:

“A less obvious way to save salary on this slate is to roster Paul Craig. He’s a massive underdog against Rodolfo Bellato ($9,400) in a fight where the Under 1.5 round prop is favored, so the market thinks Craig gets finished quickly here.

However, Craig has pulled shocking upsets in similar spots in the past. The grappling specialist might have the best submission game in the UFC (save submission record-holder Charles Oliveira), giving him an ace in the hole in nearly any matchup.

Bellato has initiated grappling in most of his UFC bouts, which is a hard habit to break even when it’s not in his best interest. He grappled his way into trouble in his draw against Jimmy Crute, nearly getting knocked out in the process.

Plus, Bellato might have some of the worst striking defense in the UFC. He’s shown neither ability nor desire to remove his head from the path of oncoming punches and has been knocked down three times in four fights between the UFC and Contender Series.

Bellato’s ability to recover from those shots is impressive, but he’s certainly playing with fire. Craig is a bad striker (to put it mildly) — but he throws hard. If there’s anyone who could get caught by one of the Scotsman’s wild strikes, it’s Bellato.”

Nothing much has changed this time around, with Craig coming in just $100 more expensive. The need to save salary is even more pressing on this slate, so I’m trying it one more time.

The Swing Fight

Edmen Shahbazyan ($8,800) vs. Andre Petroski ($7,400)

This is a “binary fight” in every sense of the term. Not only do we have a striker (Shahbazyan) meeting a grappler, but we also have a fighter who typically finishes things quickly (also Shahbazyan) taking on one more known to go the distance.

Fortunately, the salaries are such that both men could easily pay off their price tag with their typical winning condition. The favored Shahbazyan has six stoppages (five in the first round) in his seven UFC wins, which should provide more than enough fantasy scoring at $8,800.

Petroski has three straight decision victories following his two knockout losses, but he costs just $7,400. He is also an extremely high-level grappler, which has been the kryptonite for Shahbazyan in the UFC so far.

Both men are strong where the other is weak, and either type of fight would produce a solid score for the winner. I’m much higher on Petroski when considering the price tag, but I’ll have one or the other in all of my lineups this weekend.

Interested in more action? Check out Fanatics Sportsbook and use our Fanatics Sportsbook promo code.

Pictured: Mansur Abdul-Malik
Photo Credit: Steven Bisig-Imagn Images

YOU MAY ALSO LIKE

UFC Vegas 63 DFS Breakdown: Model, Preview, Picks for Kattar vs. Allen, More Saturday Fights UFC Vegas 81 DFS Breakdown: Model, Preview, Picks for Allen vs. Craig, More Saturday Fights UFC Austin DFS Breakdown: Model, Preview, Picks for Tsarukyan vs. Dariush, More Saturday Fights UFC 296 DFS Breakdown: Model, Preview, Picks for Covington vs. Edwards, More Saturday Fights

About the Author

Billy Ward writes NFL, MLB, and UFC DFS content for FantasyLabs. He has a degree in mathematical economics and a statistics minor. Ward's data-focused education allows him to take an analytical approach to betting and fantasy sports. Prior to joining Action and FantasyLabs in 2021, he contributed as a freelancer starting in 2018. He is also a former Professional MMA fighter.