UFC 331 DFS Breakdown: Model, Preview, Picks for Van vs. Pantoja 2, More Saturday Fights

We’ve got a hotly anticipated rematch for the flyweight title at UFC 331, after the initial meeting between Alexandre Pantoja and Josh Van ended with an anti-climactic injury to Pantoja less than a minute in. We also have the return of Arman Tsarukyan from his various combat side quests in a rare five-round co-main event, where he takes on Mauricio Ruffy.

We’re back to the usual 5:00 p.m. ET start time for this 12-fight card.

We have built out a full player-projection model using the FantasyLabs Tools and Player Models to help put together some winning DFS lineups in the UFC. You can use our optimizer to build optimal lineups using these projections.

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The model, created by our own Sean Koerner, is based on 10,000 simulations of all the fights. He then pulled the DraftKings score from each bout to create floor, median, and ceiling projections for every fighter. Here is how he defined each projection:

• Floor: Fighter has an 80% chance of going over this score, 20% chance of going under
• Median: Fighter has a 50% chance of going over this score, 50% chance of going under
• Ceiling: Fighter has a 20% chance of going over this score, 80% chance of going under

These should give us a better sense of which fighters we should target based on the game type – maximizing ceiling in tournaments, for example.

You can check out the projections for every fighter on Saturday’s card in our UFC Models.

Main Event

Josh Van ($8,300) vs. Alexandre Pantoja ($7,900)

Alexandre Pantoja was well on his way to thoroughly cleaning out the flyweight division when he took on young up-and-comer Joshua Van at UFC 323 in December. He came into that fight as more than a -200 favorite, but it ended in disaster, with Pantoja dislocating his elbow in a scramble just 30 seconds into the fight. Thus began the Joshua Van era, and he’s since defended his title against fellow prospect Tatsuro Taira.

Van is an exciting young striker who doesn’t turn 25 until next month and continues to show improvement every time he steps into the Octagon. The 36-year-old Pantoja has been out of action for nine months, and it’s hard to say how long the injury truly kept him out or when he returned to full training.

However, both have their upsides for DFS. Van lands just under 8.5 significant strikes per minute in the UFC and seems to be adding power as he matures physically. Pantoja is an elite grappler who has either landed six or more takedowns or finished the fight in all five of his title fights prior to facing Van. Both men defend well against the other’s strengths, but I still expect some success from both.

I also anticipate Pantoja doing his best work early while Van piles up volume down the stretch, making this an elite cash game stack. For tournaments, I prefer the young champion, but it’s imperative to factor in ownership on a 12-fight slate, so I’ll have plenty of exposure to Pantoja as well.

Co-Main Event

Arman Tsarukyan ($9,100) vs. Mauricio Ruffy ($7,100)

We have an interesting five-round co-main event this weekend, with Arman Tsarukyan returning from his various grappling side quests to take on Mauricio Ruffy. The former has allegedly been promised he’ll finally get a shot at the lightweight title with a win. We’ve heard that story before for Tsarukyan, who pulled out of a previous title fight due to a last-minute injury, but he’s certainly deserving. His only UFC losses came in his short-notice debut against current welterweight champ Islam Makhachev and in a very questionable decision against Mateusz Gamrot.

Ruffy is taking this fight on about a month’s notice after Tsarukyan was originally set to rematch Charles Oliveira, a less-than-ideal circumstance for his first five-round fight. The former Fighting Nerd now trains primarily in Australia, meaning he’s traveled from Brazil to Australia and now to Los Angeles, all in less than a month.

Ruffy is an extremely dangerous striker who has finished four of his five UFC wins inside two rounds. He’s also been granted fairly favorable matchups, with the only true grappler he has fought (Benoit Saint Denis) taking him down and submitting him. Given Tsarukyan’s elite grappling and relentless takedowns, this is both a fairly binary fight and one that heavily favors Tsarukyan.

Tsarukyan doesn’t have the quick-finish equity of the fighters priced above him, but his overall ceiling is just as high. It ultimately comes down to how well Ruffy is able to scramble back to his feet – thus creating opportunities for more takedowns. I’m not entirely convinced he can, which makes Tsarukyan a great cash game play but far from a must in tournaments.

Ruffy has some tournament value as a contrarian option given his massive power and cheap price but is far too risky in cash games.

The Easy Chalk

Gable Steveson ($9,900)

Gable Steveson closed as one of the biggest favorites in UFC history for his July debut, with odds spiking as high as -2800 at some spots, and has a chance to top that number in his follow-up performance. As of Friday morning, he has odds as short as -2500 at some sportsbooks for his fight against Sean Sharaf ($6,300) and is -330 to pick up a first-round finish.

Both Steveson and Sharaf have just four pro wins, making this a fair matchup on paper. However, Sharaf is 0-2 in the UFC, and Steveson is a former D1 national champion and Olympic gold medalist in wrestling. Steveson didn’t need to use those wrestling skills in his debut, picking up 116.7 points in a brawl with Elisha Ellison, but he could almost certainly pick up a takedown whenever he needs it.

Steveson is an elite overall athlete who can dominate most UFC heavyweights with speed and explosiveness. Given some of the press conference discussions this week, my guess is Steveson will try to punish Sharaf early, making a quick win bonus fairly likely.

It’s hard to make the optimal lineup at $9,900, but it’s even harder to see Steveson failing here since the worst-case scenario is probably multiple takedowns and a few minutes of control time if Sharaf is able to survive. I’m playing as much Steveson as I can afford.

The Upside Plays

Robelis Despaigne ($9,600)

The UFC brought back Robelis Despaigne largely to keep him out of the hands of the newly formed MVP/PFL fight promotion, which is led by Jake Paul and set to hold cards on Netflix. Despaigne was cut from the UFC after going 1-2 in 2024 but reappeared on the MVP Netflix card earlier this year and seemed to be building toward a fight with star heavyweight Francis Ngannou.

Instead, he gets Tai Tuivasa ($6,600), who is one fight away from tying the UFC record with eight straight losses. “Bam Bam” is a fan favorite both for his fun style and personality but has always been an extremely limited fighter who relies on his power and durability to win brawls. That’s a terrible approach against Despaigne, a former Olympic taekwondo medalist who is one of the scariest pure strikers in the heavyweight division.

What Despaigne can’t do is grapple; his losses came via opponents taking him down and holding him for three rounds. Unfortunately, Tuivasa has never landed a takedown in his 18-fight UFC career, which is almost certainly why he was picked for this matchup. Tuivasa moved his training camp to American Top Team and has openly admitted he’s planning to wrestle, but it’s probably too little, too late.

The threat of Tuivasa busting out a takedown is why I prefer Steveson as a top option, but Despaigne has a similarly high ceiling and only slightly more risk. I’m happy to pivot to him in any lineups where the $300 in savings meaningfully improves the lineup elsewhere.

The Value Play

Michael Aswell ($7,200)

It’s a tough slate for underdogs and thus for DFS value, with Michael Aswell being the only one I feel any strong conviction toward. “The Texas Kid” is 1-3 in the UFC with three fairly close decision losses and one impressive knockout win, and he meets Joo Sang Yoo ($9,000), who is 1-1 in the UFC after getting knocked out in his most recent fight.

I’m somewhat surprised Yoo was ever favored at more than two-to-one in this matchup. His lone UFC win came over Jeka Saragih in 28 seconds, and prior to that, he fought in less prestigious promotions before coming to the UFC. The market agrees with me, with Aswell’s line moving from +220 on Monday to +185 on Friday morning.

With this fight being one of just three on the card favored to go to a decision, at a minimum, Aswell has a solid floor. I like his chances of pulling off the upset, though. The 25-year-old is a durable, all-action fighter, and his output should help sway the judges in his favor if it does, in fact, go to a decision.

A win at his price point is obviously massively valuable, but he could also rack up enough volume in a loss to make it into the optimal tournament lineup if no other underdogs win, so he’s one of my favorite overall plays.

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The Contrarian Choice

Casey O’Neil ($8,500)

Given how important building contrarian lineups will be in large-field tournaments this week, “King” Casey O’Neill could be a massive leverage play. She’s historically an excellent DFS fighter, averaging more than seven significant strikes per minute and 1.4 takedowns per 15 minutes, with a 50% UFC finish rate. She’s also looked much better in recent fights since returning from multiple knee surgeries that kept her out of competition for extended stretches.

She’s taking on Eduarda Moura ($7,700), a Brazilian grappler with a 3-2 UFC record. Moura has picked up takedowns in most of her UFC fights but failed to do anything significant with them and is a mediocre striker at best. O’Neill has more than enough grappling ability to hold her own in that department and should lap Moura on the feet with her pace and pressure.

At $8,500, O’Neill doesn’t necessarily need a finish to make the optimal lineup, and rostering her leaves more room for another heavy favorite. She could be the key to the slate in tournaments, given what should be fairly low ownership.

The Swing Fight

Edmen Shahbazyan ($8,400) vs. Brunno Ferreira ($7,800)

Most of the fights on the UFC 331 card with heavily favored inside-the-distance odds also have a massive favorite. The one exception is the middleweight tilt between Edmen Shahbazyan and Brunno Ferreira, which is -275 to finish early and features Shahbazyan as about a -180 favorite.

Both fighters have had fairly similar UFC runs, getting some early hype before suffering upset losses and settling into exactly 60% win rates. Both could rightfully be described as “glass cannons” due to their impressive power and questionable durability, and they each have underrated grappling ability as well. Both are also coming off decision losses in which they failed to do much, which could motivate them to increase their output here.

Shahbazyan is the more technical fighter, especially on the feet, but Ferreira is more athletic and explosive. I’d make this fight much closer to a coin flip than the odds suggest, which means I’ll be heavier on “The Hulk.” He’s also a better leverage play, given some slight movement toward Shahbazyan indicating which way the field will be going.

Still, Shahbazyan is worth rostering as well. Six of his nine UFC wins have come in the first round, with seven stoppages overall, so if he holds serve as a favorite, he probably makes the optimal lineup.

Pictured: Arman Tsarukyan
Photo Credit: Imagn Images