UFC 318 is built around the retirement fight for the fan-favorite Dustin Poirier, who meets old rival Max Holloway for the third time. This one is in Poirier’s home state of Louisiana, where they headline a 14-fight card.
Prelims start at 6:00 p.m. ET, with the main card at 10:00 p.m. ET.
We have built out a full player-projection model using the FantasyLabs Tools and Player Models to help put together some winning DFS lineups in UFC. You can use our optimizer to build optimal lineups using these projections.
The model, created by our own Sean Koerner, is based on 10,000 simulations of all the fights. He then pulled the DraftKings score from each bout to create floor, median, and ceiling projections for every fighter. Here is how he defined each projection:
- Floor: Fighter has an 80% chance of going over this score, 20% chance of going under
- Median: Fighter has a 50% chance of going over this score, 50% chance of going under
- Ceiling: Fighter has a 20% chance of going over this score, 80% chance of going under
These should give us a better sense of which fighters we should target based on the game type – maximizing ceiling in GPPs, for example.
You can check out the projections for every fighter on Saturday’s card in our UFC Models.
Main Event
Max Holloway ($8,200) vs. Dustin Poirier ($8,000)
Despite Poirier getting the better of Holloway in the two previous meetings, Holloway comes into the final bout of their trilogy as a slight favorite.
Of course, that makes sense. Holloway is a few years younger and, more importantly, hasn’t publicly declared that this will be his last professional fight. The old adage is to never bet on retiring fighters, and it’s a solid starting point in this matchup.
Either way, this is a tremendous DFS fight. It will likely be a nonstop striking battle between two men who land strikes at a high rate. It’s also slightly favored to go the full 25 minutes, but even a third or fourth round finish would probably provide both fighters with solid scores.
Since it’s the only five-round fight on the card, it’s also an extremely obvious cash game stack. If, like me, you don’t feel especially strongly about any of the slate’s underdogs, there’s also a case for stacking this one in GPPs.
While both fighters will be heavily owned individually, their combined ownership will be much smaller. The lack of a fighter priced at $8,400 means you’d still need to take a shot at one true underdog, but there might be only one who wins below Poirier’s salary on this slate.
The Easy Chalk
Brunno Ferreira ($9,700)
This slate has five fighters who are favored at -500 or longer, with each of those fights also favored to end inside the distance. That gives us plenty of options for the “easy chalk” selection, with only about six points splitting the group.
For that reason, I wouldn’t go out of my way to force any particular fighters at the top into my lineups. Rather, I’m happy to build the rest of the roster and see where my remaining salary takes me. With that said, I feel the most confident in Brunno “The Hulk” Ferreira.
Not only is Ferreira favored at -135 to win in the very first round against Jackson McVey ($6,500), but he also brings more takedown upside than most of the top fighters on the slate. While Ferreira is best known for his massive power, he was also a three-time Brazilian Judo champion.
He showed those skills in his last fight, picking up two takedowns and a second-round submission over a high-level kickboxer, Armen Petrosyan. Much like a running back who also catches passes, his dual-threat ability makes him capable of racking up points in multiple ways — which distinguishes him from
The Upside Plays
Islam Dulatov ($9,600)
I was fairly glowing in my praise of Dulatov heading into his Contender Series bout last year, and if anything, he exceeded my already high expectations.
The 6’3″ welterweight has elite stand-up skills with a pro boxing win on his record and is nearly as dangerous on the ground. In his DWCS bout, he picked up both a knockdown and a takedown in less than three minutes, and five of his eleven pro wins have come via submission.
He’s also working with a massive athleticism edge over Adam Fugitt ($6,600), who is 2-2 in the UFC following a split decision win in his last fight. Fugitt was finished in both of those losses, which each came to highly regarded prospects like Dulatov.
Dulatov’s first-round odds of +100 are nearly as strong as Ferreira’s, though his odds of piling up repeated takedowns are probably a bit lower than the Brazilian’s. It’s close, though, and we could easily switch the sections that both men appear in.
Ateba Gautier ($9,400)
Gautier is another highly touted 2024 Contender Series graduate. Unlike the well-rounded Dulatov, Gautier does just one thing well.
That one thing happens to be separating his opponents from consciousness with strikes, which can take you pretty far in this sport even lacking other developed skills. Gautier’s last six fights have all been knockout victories, with just one of those leaving the first round.
He’s also still just 23 and likely able to train as a full-time job for the first time after winning a performance bonus in his UFC debut this year. Those other skills still have plenty of time to develop, and he’s getting a very winnable sophomore matchup against Robert Valentin ($6,800).
Valentin was the TUF 32 runner-up and lost his next UFC fight via split decision to Torrez Finney. Like Gautier, he wants to settle things on his feet—both of his losses came via opponents taking him down. However, he lacks the physical tools that Gautier brings and is a rightful massive underdog.
Gautier is +130 to end things in the first round, making the top fighters all hard to pick from. The highest score might come from the fighter who best threads the needle of a late first-round finish, since that would allow more time to put up points.
That could be Gautier, and with the slight discount compared to Dulatov and Ferreira, he might be the key to unlocking better overall lineups.
The Value Plays
Marvin Vettori ($7,400)
As alluded to above, I don’t feel especially great about any of the slate’s underdogs actually winning their fights. However, Vettori checks the boxes as a solid floor play for his fight against Brendan Allen ($8,800).
After opening as a +200 underdog, the former title challenger now has odds in the +160 range. That alone makes him a few hundred dollars too cheap. On top of that, this fight has the best odds on the card to go to a decision, so Vettori likely has a full 15 minutes to work with.
Allen is a submission specialist, while Vettori has never been submitted (or finished at all) and has solid takedown defense. Allen is the best grappler he’s fought in a while so that takedown defense could be tested, but it’s held up well in similar spots in the past.
He could certainly pull off the upset here if he stays off the canvas, but at worst he should be able to defend submissions and work his way back to his feet, where he can score well via strikes. That’s enough at his price tag on a tough slate for underdogs.
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The Contrarian Choice
Francisco Prado ($8,300)
Given the nature of the slate, the vast majority of lineups will feature “stars and scrubs” builds that attempt to jam in two or three of the top fighters on the slate. Coupled with the main event fighters both priced right in the middle of the salary range, we’re likely to see very low ownership for the small favorites on the card.
My favorite in that price range is Prado, a 23-year-old who has looked much better in the UFC than his 1-3 record indicates. That record is also still better than the 0-2 (or 0-3 counting Contender Series) mark that his opponent Nikolay Veretennikov ($7,900) brings.
At 35, Veretennikov is unlikely to have taken any massive leaps since we saw him get finished via ground and pound earlier this year. Prado is training at American Top Team alongside Poirier and still growing into his body at welterweight.
Picking Prado requires a bit of optimism, as we’re projecting him to continue to improve—especially in the wrestling department. However, that’s not a stretch given his age and training camp. I want to be well over the field on Prado, and he’s my favorite play on the slate when factoring in salary and ownership.
The Swing Fight
Roman Kopylov ($8,900) vs. Paulo Costa ($7,300)
This isn’t the typical swing fight in that I want to force one of the two fighters into each of my lineups. In fact, it’s not even especially likely to end with a quick finish, as one of the few fights on the slate is favored to need the judges.
However, the range of outcomes is extremely wide here, as Costa looks to break out of the 1-4 losing streak he finds himself in after starting his UFC career 5-0 and challenging for a title.
His last six opponents have all been former champions or title challengers, making this a fairly significant step down against the UFC’s #14-ranked middleweight Roman Kopylov. Kopylov is 6-3 in the UFC with no wins against ranked opponents, so this is a big step up for him.
Given the trajectory of Costa’s career, his price tag is about right. He’s still just 34, though, which is reasonably young in the larger weight classes (and just two weeks older than Kopylov). He should have the edge in power and grappling against the more technical favorite, giving him plenty of upside.
Or, Costa is in fact washed, and Kopylov piles up triple-digit significant strikes for the second straight fight. That wouldn’t shock me and explains why I’m interested in both fighters here.
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Pictured: Max Holloway
Photo Credit: Imagn Images
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