We’ve got two title fights at UFC 316 — in both bantamweight divisions — as Merab Dvalishvili and Julianna Pena look to defend their titles against Sean O’Malley and Kayla Harrison.
In total we’ve got a 13-fight card, with lineups locking at 6:00 p.m. ET.
We have built out a full player-projection model using the FantasyLabs Tools and Player Models to help put together some winning DFS lineups in UFC. You can use our optimizer to build optimal lineups using these projections.
The model, created by our own Sean Koerner, is based on 10,000 simulations of all the fights. He then pulled the DraftKings score from each bout to create floor, median, and ceiling projections for every fighter. Here is how he defined each projection:
- Floor: Fighter has an 80% chance of going over this score, 20% chance of going under
- Median: Fighter has a 50% chance of going over this score, 50% chance of going under
- Ceiling: Fighter has a 20% chance of going over this score, 80% chance of going under
These should give us a better sense of which fighters we should target based on the game type – maximizing ceiling in GPPs, for example.
You can check out the projections for every fighter on Saturday’s card in our UFC Models.
Main Event
Merab Dvalishvili ($9,000) vs. Sean O’Malley ($7,200)
Merab Dvalishvili is making his second title defense since claiming the 135-pound title, and this time it’s a rematch against the man he took the belt from.
It’s a slightly curious piece of matchmaking, since O’Malley was neither a long-reigning champion nor especially competitive in his loss to Dvalishvili. That fight was a dream scenario DFS performance from Dvalishvili, as he landed six takedowns and more than ten minutes of control time en route to a 137-point performance.
O’Malley managed just 47 significant strikes and was held under 20 DraftKings points. His style makes it hard to score points without a finish. He has his moments against fighters willing to exchange strikes on the feet, but Dvalishvili is certainly not one of them.
The narrative is that O’Malley was injured prior to his defense against Dvalishvili, and he had hip surgery following that fight. While that’s a positive on one hand if he’s fully healthy now, that also means he wasn’t training and improving for a large chunk of the nine months since they last met.
I’m having a hard time seeing this go any differently than the last time, which means I’ll have plenty of Dvalishvili and very little O’Malley in my lineups. With two five-round fights, I’m even comfortable fading O’Malley in cash games. I don’t want to lock in two losses, and I like Julianna Pena’s fantasy outlook better at her price tag.
Co-Main Event
Kayla Harrison ($9,700) vs. Julianna Pena ($6,500)
The other title fight at UFC 316 is arguably more interesting, even if the betting market is expecting it to be less competitive.
Kayla Harrison has been deemed the uncrowned champion of the women’s bantamweight division since making the leap from the PFL, where she was a two-time tournament winner at lightweight. The two-time Olympic gold medalist in judo has been a dominant force throughout her MMA career, with both elite skills and athleticism.
The big question for Harrison remains the weight cut, since she’s competing 20 pounds lighter than she did in the PFL and nearly 40 pounds lighter than she did as a judoka. Her two non-title fights in the UFC saw her use the extra pound allowance to make weight, and now she’ll have to make 135 pounds on the dot while also preparing for a five-round fight.
Outlasting a depleted Harrison is probably the best hope for Pena. The two-time champion isn’t’ especially dominant in any aspect of MMA but is known for her toughness and durability. Pena is unlikely to land (or attempt) many takedowns on Harrison but could put up a solid score relative to her salary if this fight extends.
More importantly, she’s $700 cheaper than O’Malley on a slate where the most expensive fighters are projecting well. This one might not make it to the championship rounds, but if the savings allows you to lock in more points elsewhere, it might not matter.
The Easy Chalk
Azamat Murzakanov ($9,600)
One of those more expensive options is Azamat “The Professional” Murzakanov. He’s a massive favorite for his fight against Brendson Riberio ($6,600), with his odds continuing to increase throughout the week. As of Friday, he’s a -600 favorite in the fight that’s the likeliest to end inside the distance on the slate.
Murzakanov has knockouts in three of his four UFC wins, though his best fantasy score has been 100 points. He’s yet to pick up a first-round finish, though his odds of getting one this week are a solid +120. Given his high price tag, 100 points likely isn’t enough, so we’ll need a quick stoppage for him to pay off his salary.
The matchup with Riberio makes that fairly likely, though. Ribeiro isn’t the most defensively sound fighter, carrying his hands low and wading into danger often in his fights. He was knocked out quickly (and badly) in his fight against Mingyang Zhang, and Murzakanov is probably a better striker than Zhang.
Still, the lack of takedown upside makes Murzakanov a tricky play, since he has just one path to paying off his salary. I’m fine with him in cash games since a later knockout is probably fine there, but I’m not sure I want to eat the ownership in GPPs.
The Upside Play
JooSang Yoo ($9,500)
Part of the reason I won’t have much Murzakanov is because of the option to save $100 and roster JooSang Yoo. Also, a -600 favorite, “Zombie Jr.,” is making his UFC debut after compiling an 8-0 record fighting in Korea.
Much like his namesake and mentor, “The Korean Zombie” Chan Sung Jung, Yoo has big power, a granite chin, and little-to-no interest in striking defense. That will likely be a problem against tougher UFC opponents — but probably not against Jekah Saragih ($6,700).
The scouting report on Sergaih is broadly similar, except he’s a bit smaller, less athletic, and — crucially — has more of a questionable chin. He suffered a TKO loss in his proper UFC debut and has been submitted in his other three pro losses.
That gives Yoo a bit of grappling upside should he choose to use it, but I suspect he’ll be content to trade blows on the feet. With his power and durability advantage, I suspect he’ll win that war. While we probably need a quick knockout to pay off his price tag, his odds of getting one are close enough to Murzakanov’s to make him a very strong GPP pivot.
The Value Play
Mark Choinski ($7,300)
The UFC 316 opening bout features promotional newcomer Mark Coinski taking on Marquel Mederos ($8,900), who was originally supposed to fight Bolaji Oki last week but pulled out due to having the flu.
That’s concerning for Mederos, as a week doesn’t seem like quite enough time to get back to full strength, especially when dealing with multiple weight cuts and flying across the country. I’m writing this as weigh-ins are taking place, and Mederos is one of two fighters yet to make his way to the scales.
Beyond that, Choinski is an undefeated prospect training out of Roufusport with the Pettis brothers. He’s also a three-time D3 All-American wrestler. That’s a problem for Mederos, who was taken down twice in his last fight and gave up more than seven minutes of ground control time in his last fight.
At worst, Choinski is a high-floor play, and any win would be more than enough to justify his price tag. He has huge upside thanks to his wrestling as well, so I’ll have him in both my cash and GPP lineups this weekend.
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The Contrarian Choice
Kelvin Gastelum ($7,000)
The other cheap option I’m interested in this week is Kelvin Gastelum. This is a re-booked fight after Joe Pyfer ($9,200) pulled out of their planned bout at UFC Mexico with food poisoning, though unlike Mederos, he’s had more than two months to recover.
Pyfer’s best attribute is his punching power, and Gastelum is famously one of the most durable fighters ever to grace the Octagon. In 23 fights, the only opponent to ever drop Gastelum was a prime Israel Adesanya, and Gastelum still made it to the final bell in a fight that’s now recognized in the UFC Hall of Fame.
If he can survive the early onslaught from Pyfer, he’ll be in a good position to capitalize down the stretch. He’s the more skilled overall fighter and certainly will have the cardio edge. Pyfer’s hard-throwing style tends to tire him out fairly quickly, and Gastelum typically turns it up later in fights.
The risk here is that the much larger fighter — Pyfer also hasn’t hit the scales at the time of writing — decides to take the easy path and control Gastelum on the ground. In that scenario, Gastelum still probably does enough to justify his salary in cash games but would be a bust for GPPS.
Either way, we need some cheap fighters to make lineups work this week, and Gastelum is one of the better options.
The Swing Fight
Khaos Williams ($8,700) vs. Andreas Gustafsson ($7,500)
I was big on Gustafsson last week, but his fight with Trevin Giles was cancelled due to Giles withdrawing from the bout. He’s been moved to this week, where he’s now the third opponent booked to fight Khaos Williams at UFC 316.
Clearly, neither man has had much time to prepare for each other, making this an interesting clash of styles. Gustafsson’s power and Greco-Roman wrestling background are both intriguing for DFS, as he typically either lands a big shot or finds his way into a clinch where he picks up takedowns at will.
On the other hand, this is the exact type of matchup that scares me for Gustafsson. He’s fighting a longer and faster opponent in a large cage, which will make it hard to work his way into the clinch positions needed for Greco-style takedowns.
Williams also has plenty of power, with four first-round knockouts in his six UFC wins. Gustafsson tends to lose sight of defense while charging in, which could be a problem against a striker of this level.
However, with Williams lacking the training time needed to prepare for this specific matchup and his struggles against grapplers, this is a fairly high-variance fight. Outside of the Murzakanov matchup, it has the best odds to end inside the distance, and I’ll want exposure to both men in my GPP portfolio.
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Pictured: Merab Dvalishvili
Photo Credit: Imagn Images
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