The UFC 311 main card was shuffled around Friday afternoon, with title challenger Arman Tsarukyan pulling out of his fight with champion Islam Makhachev.
The new main event features Renato Moicano challenging for the title, with the status of his original opponent now up in the air.
On the plus side, at least we got this news before lineups lock on Saturday. That happens at 6:00 p.m. ET, for the 13(?) fight card.
We have built out a full player-projection model using the FantasyLabs Tools and Player Models to help put together some winning DFS lineups in UFC. You can use our optimizer to build optimal lineups using these projections.
The model, created by our own Sean Koerner, is based on 10,000 simulations of all the fights. He then pulled the DraftKings score from each bout to create floor, median, and ceiling projections for every fighter. Here is how he defined each projection:
- Floor: Fighter has an 80% chance of going over this score, 20% chance of going under
- Median: Fighter has a 50% chance of going over this score, 50% chance of going under
- Ceiling: Fighter has a 20% chance of going over this score, 80% chance of going under
These should give us a better sense of which fighters we should target based on the game type – maximizing ceiling in GPPs, for example. We’ve also added ownership projections by yours truly to help find leverage spots for GPPs.
You can check out the projections for every fighter on Saturday’s card in our UFC Models.
Main Event
Islam Makhachev ($9,400) vs. Renato Moicano ($8,700)
The move from Tsarukyan to Moicano has shifted Islam Makhachev’s moneyline odds from around -350 to more than -900 (and rising) at the time of writing. This is a fabulous matchup for Makhachev, who has a huge size and grappling edge over Moicano.
Moicano is now a huge underdog at $8,700, making him effectively unplayable. Without the time to dig deeper into this one — roster Makhachev in all of your lineups.
Co-Main Event
Umar Nurmagomedov ($9,200) vs. Merab Dvalishvili ($7,000)
The other title fight at UFC 311 features another Khabib-protege, this time his cousin Umar Nurmagomedov. Despite being the challenger, Nurmagomedov comes in as a fairly heavy favorite for his matchup with Merab Dvalishvili.
This time, my thoughts mostly align with the betting odds. Dvalishvili is a pressure-based grappler who both attempts and lands more takedowns per minute than any fighter in UFC history. Nurmagomedov has never been taken down and comes from a team known for their legendary grappling abilities.
Nurmagomedov is also pretty clearly the better striker in this matchup, which could be a problem if the grappling cancels out. The only true edge for Dvalishvili is his cardio — but that only matters if Nurmagomedov runs out of gas late in the fight.
Plus, there are extenuating circumstances. Dvalishvili wanted a longer gap between fights but was pressured into taking this one with a shorter-than-typical fight camp. That’s reminiscent of when his teammate Aljamain Sterling lost the 135lbs title to Sean O’Malley, and generally not an ideal spot.
Nurmagomedov is one of my favorite plays on the slate, which makes it harder to stack this one in cash. I’ll likely pair Nurmagomedov with both main event fighters in cash games while also having heavy exposure to him in GPPs.
Update: With the other five-round fight being reshuffled, this one becomes a much more appealing stack.
The Easy Chalk
Bogdan Guskov ($9,100)
Truthfully, there’s a strong case to be made for all of the fighters in the $9,000 range this weekend, with the possible exception of Payton Talbott ($9,900), who’s a fine play but a bit overpriced. They all come with either early finishing upside or a high likelihood of racking up takedowns.
Guskov falls in the former camp. After being submitted in his UFC debut (against a top-ten fighter), he’s picked up quick finishes in two straight fights. Overall, all 16 of his career wins have come without the help of the judges.
The road got a bit easier for him this week when his original opponent, Johnny Walker, pulled out with an injury. While Walker is certainly capable of being finished, he was at least a threat to put Guskov away as well.
I’m not sure that’s the case with Billy Elekana ($7,100), who’s stepping up on short notice to fill in for Walker. Elekana is 7-1 as a pro but against largely lower-level competition and was probably a fight or two away from a Contender Series invite before accepting the short-notice call. He also fought a good chunk of his career at middleweight and is probably going to be considerably smaller than Guskov.
While the lack of grappling from Guskov means we’re heavily reliant on a finish for fantasy scoring, he’s -185 to pick up a finish and +175 to do so in the first round, both solid odds.
The Upside Plays
Rinya Nakamura ($9,500)
The combination of his price tag and relatively low stoppage odds (+180 to win by finish) have Nakamura likely to be among the lowest-owned of the expensive fighters on the slate. However, that could be a mistake.
The former U23 world champion wrestler converted to MMA in 2020 when the COVID pandemic canceled the Olympics, and he’s gone 9-0 in his new sport since then. In UFC (or UFC-affiliated) contests, he’s either picked up first-round knockouts or notched at least three takedowns in every appearance.
I don’t see that changing against Muin Gafurov ($6,700). Gafurov is 1-2 in the UFC and was taken down thrice by a far inferior grappler in his last appearance. The biggest problem is that Nakamura’s grappling is so much better he may not allow Gafurov back to his feet for repeated takedowns — but that also correlates with picking up a finish on the ground.
Plus, given Nakamura’s relative lack of MMA experience, I expect we’ll see his finishing ability continue to improve. He’s one of my favorite GPP plays.
Bernardo Sopaj ($9,300)
Bernardo Sopaj is taking on Ricky Turcios ($6,900) in a fight that was originally booked for last November before Turcios had a medical issue following his weight cut and had to be removed from the card.
Then, I was betting on Sopaj to pick up a finish. If anything, the fact that Turcios struggled so much to make weight only deepens my resolve.
Plus, even if he can’t finish the fight, Sopaj has plenty of takedown upside. He landed three takedowns in his short-notice UFC debut, while Turcios has been taken down 17 times in four UFC fights. Turcios is comfortable fighting off his back, but that leads to plenty of takedown opportunities for his opposition.
That means, finish or not, Sopaj should put up a solid score here. He’s also going a bit overlooked because he’s priced between the two five-round favorites, making him a solid GPP option.
The Value Play
Beneil Dariush ($7,500)
It’s not a great slate for value outside of the title fights, but one option I’m strongly considering is Beneil Dariush.
He’s seen the moneyline move significantly in his favor this week after opening around +170 and is now just +136 on DraftKings. He’s taking on fan favorite Renato Moicano ($8,700) after taking more than a year off, a much-needed break after suffering two knockout losses.
The questionable chin on Dariush makes him a scary play (particularly in cash games) since his floor is effectively zero. However, he’s an elite grappler and should be bigger and stronger than the former featherweight Moicano.
Plus, Moicano has never landed a knockdown at lightweight and has just one overall across 17 UFC fights. That makes him less likely than the average lightweight to truly test Dariush’s chin.
I like Dariush in all contest types despite him being admittedly risky in cash games.
Update: As it stands, Dariush is now off the card, with his opponent being promoted to the main event. Keep an eye on the news, though, as the UFC may elevate another fighter to take on Darisuh, which would make him an even better value.
The Contrarian Choice
Clayton Carpenter ($7,300)
Carpenter is another fighter who’s seen some bets come his way, which I suppose doesn’t make him especially contrarian. However, he should still be relatively unpopular as a significant underdog against team-Khabib fighter Tagir Ulanbekov ($8,900).
However, I’m not so sure he should be. Carpenter is 9-0 as a pro and 2-0 in the UFC with two submissions. He has the grappling chops to hang with Ulanbekov, even if he’s admittedly not a great striker.
Plus, this flyweight bout has one of the best odds on the card to see the judges, giving Carpenter a solid floor at worst. You still probably need an upset for GPPs, but he frees up plenty of salary to fit an extra high-upside $9,000 fighter.
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The Swing Fights
Jamahal Hill ($8,200) vs. Jiri Prochazka ($8,000)
Jamahal Hill vs. Jiri Prochazka is a classic “swing fight” between two former light heavyweight champions who’ve combined for knockout wins in 70% of their UFC victories.
The awkward Prochazka has big power and little interest in defense, lunging in with awkward shots while trying to decapitate his opposition. Hill is the more technical striker, with excellent counter-striking from his southpaw stance.
Both men come into this one off of knockout losses to Alex Pereira, with Hill getting finished at UFC 300 and Prochazka at UFC 303. In Hill’s defense, he was less than a year removed from a torn Achilles at the time of that loss and has had another nine months to recover since then.
That, plus the stylistic edge for the defensively responsible Hill, makes him my preferred option here. However, he could certainly get caught by Prochazka, so I want exposure to both men. One or the other will be in almost all of my GPP lineups this week.