The Euro Breakdown provides event history and examines all the relevant data to assist you in analyzing the oftentimes unfamiliar events of the European Tour.
Because there is no historical data for Euro Tour salaries on DraftKings, all trends mentioned in this article (created with our free Trends tool) are based on all PGA Tour Events.
What You Need to Know
A star-studded field descends upon Paris, France, for the 100th Open de France, played at Le Golf National’s Albatros course. This is the 25th time that the event has been held at this course, but understand that it has undergone significant renovations since last year’s event in anticipation of hosting the 2018 Ryder Cup.
The Field
Rory McIlroy brings the most recognizable star quality to the field, but he is only one of eight Major winners who will play this week. Current Masters’ Champion Danny Willett is in attendance. Padraig Harrington, Graeme McDowell (who won this event in 2013 and 2014), Martin Kaymer (who won in 2009 with a record-setting round of 62), Darren Clarke, Y.E. Yang, and Mike Weir have all hoisted Major Championship trophies previously. Former World No. 1 golfers Luke Donald and Lee Westwood will also tee it up in Versailles.
Some of the local Frenchmen looking to take home the title include Gregory Bourdy (fresh off an excellent showing at the U.S. Open), Victor Dubuisson, Sebastien Gros, Raphael Jacquelin and Julien Quesne.
Rafa Cabrera-Bello, Chris Wood, Matthew Fitzpatrick, Andy Sullivan and Kiradech Aphibarnat are all ranked in the World’s top 50 and will also be playing this week. The field is very strong.
Bernd Wiesberger won this event last year with amazing Saturday and Sunday rounds of 66 and 65 to overcome the lead held by Cabrera-Bello, Dubuisson, and Kaymer.
The Stats
Even though the course has been renovated, it’s important to note that four of the last five winners of the event have finished the week ranked in the top three for Greens in Regulation (GIR). There’s really no reason to believe that GIR won’t be a huge factor again.
Scrambling (Scr) has also been a big part of the formula for the five previous winners, with all five finishing the week no worse than 15th and three ranked fourth or better. Those are the two metrics I will focus on this week, with a primary focus on GIR.
Greens In Regulation
High-Priced Golfers ($9,600 and Higher)
Among golfers priced $10,000 or higher Rory McIlroy has the best Long-Term GIR (LT GIR) at 70.7 percent.
For more on Rory McIlroy and his statistical domination of several metrics this week, check out the Euro DFS Data Dive.
Priced under $10,000 but still in the high-priced category is Matthew Fitzpatrick, whose 72.7 LT GIR is not only higher than Rory’s but also third-best in the entire field.
Fitzpatrick’s 70.3 percent Long-Term Driving Accuracy (LT DA) is also third in the field and his 69.2 Recent Adjusted Round Score (Rec Adj Rd Score) is eighth. Golfers in similar recent form with comparable LT GIR and Driving Accuracy have granted a +3.04 Plus/Minus on DraftKings.
Long-Term Greens in Regulation, Plus/Minus, and other premium exclusive metrics are accessible via our free Ratings tool.
Current Open de France Champion Bernd Wiesberger sports a LT GIR percentage of 70.5, 12th overall and third in this pricing tier. Wiesberger’s 69.7 LT Adj Rd Score is tied for third in the entire field and his LT Scr mark, another metric we have identified as important at Le Golf National, is tied for 10th at 57.9 percent. Players with comparable LT GIR and Scr percentages have returned a +1.72 Plus/Minus on DraftKings.
Fitzpatrick and Danny Willett are the only golfers in this tier who have LT and Rec GIR percentages ranked in the upper quartile. Per our free Trends tool, the result of such a combination is positive value.
Mid-Priced Golfers ($7,500 – $9,500)
Rafael Cabrera-Bello leads this tier — in fact the entire field — with his 73.8 LT GIR. His 71.9 percent Rec GIR is seventh overall and second in this pricing tier.
Golfers in this tier with comparable LT & Rec GIR percentages have a significantly negative -5.89 Plus/Minus on DraftKings. I find that somewhat shocking, but I ran a completely independent trend on Cabrera-Bello in the Euro Data Dive and it too came back negative.
Don’t sleep on Gregory Bourdy. His ownership will most likely be inflated after his U.S. Open showing, but the Frenchman can play. His 71.3 percent LT GIR is sixth overall and fourth in his pricing tier.
Perhaps more telling is his 68.4 Rec Adj Rd Score — tied for third in this field. For those inclined to take a leisurely stroll down La Rue des Narrative: Bourdy recently recorded his first ever Albatross at the Puerto Rico Open. This event is played at Le Golf National’s L’Albatros course. Stretch? Nah . . .
Joost Luiten has the best Rec GIR in this pricing tier and third in the field at 75.3 percent. Luiten’s 70.2 LT Adj Rd Score is tied for eighth overall and is fourth in this tier. Previous players combining a recent assault on greens with solid LT Adj Rd Scores have accumulated a +4.29 Plus/Minus on DraftKings with 59.2 percent Consistency.
Additional golfers in the upper quartile of either LT or Rec GIR in this pricing tier you should check out: Ross Fisher, Chris Wood, Andy Sullivan and Pablo Larrazabal. Golfers in this tier with comparable LT and Rec GIR percentages have historically had a +1.72 Plus/Minus on DraftKings.
Sullivan, Luiten and Cabrera-Bello all have LT and Rec GIR percentages in the upper quartile of this pricing tier.
Value Plays ($7,400 and Lower)
Nicolas Colsaerts‘ 73.6 percent LT GIR is second overall in the field this week. His 306.3-yard LT Driving Distance is fourth overall and his 69 Rec Adj Rd Score is tied for sixth overall. Again, these are overall in the field, not just his pricing tier. Players with comparable data in those three metrics have historically produced a +3.61 Plus/Minus on DraftKings.
I wrote about Mikko Korhonen last week, and despite his 16th-place finish at the BMW International Open his price still remains oddly depressed.
Korhonen’s 70.8 percent LT GIR is ninth in the field, his equal (70.8 percent) Rec GIR is tied for 11th, and his 69.1 Rec Adj Rd Score is tied for seventh overall. If that’s not enough, his 15 Birdies per tournament are tied for eighth overall, right behind Rory McIlory’s Birdie total.
Ricardo Gouveia, Benjamin Hebert, Gregory Havret, Richard Bland, and Richard McEvoy (along with Korhonen, Gouveia and Colsaerts) all rank inside the upper quartile for both LT and Rec GIR. If you’re considering building a Rory-centric team, you should examine these value plays.
Scrambling
High-Priced Golfers ($9,600 and Higher)
Danny Willett leads the high-priced golfers with a 59.4 percent LT Scr rate, sixth in the field. Willett, as you might imagine, also has the second-best LT Adj Rd Score at 69.2, fifth-best Rec GIR (73.3 percent), and sixth-best LT Birdie Average (14.2) and Rec Adj Rd Score (69). Willett’s nine Pro Trends are second only to Rory’s 10. You may even be able to capitalize on some Euro recency bias, since Danny missed the cut last week.
Third in this pricing tier for LT Scr is Francesco Molinari at 56.9 percent. Molinari has played this course extremely well historically, with two second-place finishes and a sixth in his last six starts. Molinari’s 69.7 LT Adj Rd Score is tied for third in the field. Golfers with comparable LT Adj Rd Scores and Scr percentages have compiled a +1.67 Plus/Minus on DraftKings.
Lee Westwood is the only player in this pricing tier with a notable Rec Scr mark at 56.8 percent. This scribe had a whole lot of Westwood in the U.S. Open so the Sunday wounds are still fresh, but Westwood’s 68.4 Rec Adj Rd Score, tied for third in the field, is a more accurate depiction of his current form.
Westwood has the third-highest Odds to Win in the field. Note that players priced comparably to Westwood with similar Odds have returned an extremely negative Plus/Minus on DraftKings. That’s data, not recency bias.
Jordan Spieth ranks in the top quartile for LT and Rec Scr.
Mid-Priced Golfers ($7,500 – $9,500)
Luke Donald owns the best LT Scr percentage in the field, not just this tier. His 69.8 LT Adj Rd Score is fifth overall, and his Rec Putts per Round (PPR) of 28.6 is tied for eighth in the field. Maybe golfers are priced according to their LT and/or Rec DD, in both of which Donald ranks horribly.
The aforementioned Chris Wood comes in with a LT Scr mark of 59.6 percent, fourth in the field. More impressive are Wood’s 68.6 Rec Adj Rd Score (fourth in the field) and his 71.5 percent Rec GIR (ninth overall). Players with similar LT Scr abilities in comparable recent form have yielded a +8.48 Plus/Minus with 66.7 percent Consistency in a small sample.
The most notable Recent Scrambler in this price range is Thongchai Jaidee, with his 58.4 percent mark. Jaidee has 10th- and second-place finishes here the past two years, but it remains to be seen how the Ryder Cup redesign will impact prior course history.
Value Plays ($7,400 and Lower)
Sneaking into the value play range is Bradley Dredge, whose 62.8 percent LT Scr mark is tied with Donald’s for best in the entire field. Dredge’s 62.8 percent Rec Scr mark — equal to his LT mark — is third in the field. His 28.6 LT PPR is also third in the field. Golfers with comparable LT Scr and PPR abilities have produced a +1.78 Plus/Minus on DraftKings.
Mikko Korhonen rears his silly head in the data again. His 59.8 percent Rec Scr rate is fifth in the field. If you have short-term memory problems, go back about a dozen paragraphs or so and remember the additional reasons to love Mikko.
Good luck!
