This is a breakdown of one-game DFS contests for the NFC Wild Card matchup featuring the Seattle Seahawks at Philadelphia Eagles on Sunday at 4:40 p.m. E.T. Be sure to check our Models up until kickoff for up-to-date projections that reflect the latest breaking news.
Cash Game Strategy
Having dropped back 40-plus times in eight straight games, Carson Wentz has a slight edge over Russell Wilson for the top projected floor and Plus/Minus in our DraftKings Showdown Models. With the cheaper Wentz in the Captain spot, you can also fit in Wilson, Miles Sanders, Marshawn Lynch, Jordan Howard, and David Moore. There are other options you could also roll with over Lynch/Howard, but both are averaging double-digit carries and are the most likely back on their team to see goal-line work, so I think they give you more upside than kickers and DSTs, though it’s a volatile situation all around with both teams suffering from banged up offensive lines. With Malik Turner (concussion) and Jaron Brown (knee) ruled out, Moore should be Seattle’s clear-cut No. 3 wide receiver in what profiles as a plus matchup.
On FanDuel, our models peg Wilson with a slightly higher floor, as Wentz’s volume isn’t as volume without the potential 3-point yardage bonus. With Wilson in the Captain spot, you can fit Wentz and Moore with a pairing of either Sanders-Lynch or Tyler Lockett–D.K.Metcalf. The latter lineup would be projected for significantly more (5.6 points), so I’d be more inclined to go that route given the matchup, or split exposure between both.
Core GPP Plays
Note: These are in addition to the players already mentioned in the cash write-up and generally has a focus on pass-catchers, though sometimes players from the cash section will be re-highlighted as appropriate. On FanDuel, QBs generally make for the top plays in the 1.5x slot because the half PPR format creates a wider gap in scoring between QB and RB/WR/TE; on DraftKings, a RB/WR/TE who hits the 100-yard bonus is the ideal play.
WR Tyler Lockett & D.K. Metcalf, Seahawks: Whereas Marshawn Lynch and Travis Homer will be game-script dependent and are less likely to cash together, both Lockett and Metcalf should be offensive centerpieces. Against an Eagles defense that allowed the sixth-most yardage (2,809) and tied for the third-most TD catches (21) to the position during the regular season, Lockett and Metcalf have superior a matchup to Jacob Hollister, who is up against a unit that allowed the sixth-fewest yards (681) and tied for the fifth-fewest TDs (4) to tight ends. Metcalf has joined Lockett as an every-down player as of late, logging 98% and 99% of snaps over the past two weeks, respectively.
TE Dallas Goedert, Eagles: Whereas Miles Sanders could end up in a three-man backfield committee with Jordan Howard, and Boston Scott while Greg Ward Jr. could slip to third or fourth on the target totem pole if Zach Ertz (ribs/kidney, questionable) suits up, Goedert is locked in as a top-two option even if Ertz suits up, and would likely remain the top target with Ertz being used in more of a situational/decoy role. It goes without saying that schemes are always liable to change in games of this magnitude, but as it stands, Seattle’s Cover 3 scheme has prioritized protecting the deep area of the field and thus been a tight end funnel, allowing the third-most schedule-adjusted targets (8.4) and yards (67.7) to the position, per data from Football Outsiders.
Note: Individual player correlations can be found in the player cards in our NFL Player Models. Team positional correlations can be found in our NFL Correlations Dashboard. Unless otherwise noted, all player correlation data is from the past 12 months and team correlation data is from the start of 2019.
- Wilson-Lockett +0.77
- Lockett-Metcalf +0.58
- Wilson-Hollister +0.58
- Wilson-Metcalf +0.50
- RB1-DST +0.39
- Metcalf-Hollister +0.35
- RB2-TE1 +0.29
- Wilson-Moore +0.18
- Lockett-Hollister +0.17
- Myers-Seahawks DST +0.17
- QB-RB1 +0.09
- QB-RB2 0.00
- Wilson-Myers -0.29
- RB1-TE1 -0.34
- Wilson-Seahawks DST -0.50
Offensive coordinator Brian Schottenheimer enters every game prioritizing the run, which explains why Lockett and Metcalf (and to a lesser extent, Hollister) have been so strongly correlated despite being on a run-heavy team — it’s generally all or nothing with the Seattle pass game. A must-win game against a defense weakest at cornerback sets the stage well for some vintage Wilson postseason magic, but in multi-entry contests, it’s also a good idea to take the barbell approach and hedge with Lynch-Seahawks DST stacks here, as Schottenheimer may decide to limit Wilson’s dropbacks with the absence of left tackle Duane Brown (knee, out) delivering yet another blow to an already subpar offensive line.
- QB-Opposing QB +0.60
- Sanders-Ward +0.59
- Scott-Elliott +0.47
- Sanders-Goedert +0.40
- Wentz-Elliott +0.37
- Wentz-Sanders +0.30
- Howard-Goedert +0.16
- Sanders-Elliott +0.14
- Sanders-Howard +0.12
- Howard-Eagles DST +0.08
- Wentz-Scott -0.04
- Wentz-Howard -0.08
- Sanders-Scott -0.12
- Wentz-Howard -0.13
- Wentz-Ertz -0.20
- Wentz-Eagles DST -0.44
- Wentz-Ward -0.54
- Howard-Elliott -0.55
If you’re wondering why Wentz has not shown much positive correlation with his pass catchers, it’s because he has been getting by on sheer volume and spreading the ball around as injuries thinned out his receiving corps, attempting 40 or more passes in each of the past seven games. No Eagles pass catcher is a must-stack with Wentz, and Wentz is a solid play even without other pass catchers. In fact, his strongest skill-position correlation has been to Sanders, and that stack will likely go underowned in favor of Wentz-Goedert/Ertz/Ward.
Players whose production would benefit owners more than expensive or highly-owned players. Kickers and D/STs generally make for strong leverage plays, but those who stand out will be highlighted below.
RB Jordan Howard, Eagles: The Seahawks have allowed multiple rushing TDs to running backs in each of their past four games. Prior to missing time with a shoulder injury, Howard was averaging a team-leading 14.3 touches and 0.78 TDs per game.
Seahawks DST: In Lane Johnson (ankle) and Brandon Brooks (shoulder), the Eagles will be without two players who Pro Football Focus graded as top-two in the league at their position.
Eagles DST: The Seahawks just lost Brown and don’t have an offensive lineman who ranks better than 33rd at any position in PFF’s grades.
Dart Throw Rankings
Ranking the low-cost, complementary players not already discussed in the leverage section by likelihood of having a worthwhile fantasy stat line.
- WR David Moore, Seahawks: Seattle’s No. 3 wide receiver and has the highest average depth of target of any Seahawk on the active roster (14.2, per AirYards.com).
- TE Josh Perkins, Eagles: Route participation rates were 38%, 20%, 32% in Weeks 14-16 with Ertz active.
- WR Robert Davis, Eagles: Nothing much in the box score yet but ran 74% of the routes last week compared to 24% each for Deontay Burnett and J.J. Arcega-Whiteside.
- WR Deontay Burnett, Eagles: The most productive Eagles wide receiver after Ward against the Giants last week (4-2-48-0), but he costs twice as much as Davis on DraftKings despite running one-third as many of the routes in that contest.
- WR J.J. Arcega Whiteside, Eagles: Yet to catch more than two passes in a game and has failed to seize a full-time role.
- TE Luke Willson, Seahawks: Seahawks No. 2 tight ends have run a route on 7-24% of dropbacks since Hollister became the starter.
- WR John Ursua, Seahawks: Seattle tends to rotate in up to five wide receivers, and the rookie is slated to be the No. 4 with Brown already ruled out.
- RB Robert Turbin, Seahawks: Seattle’s new No. 3 back didn’t see a touch in his first game back with the team last week.
- FB Nick Bellore, Seahawks: Two touches and a TD in 13 games.
- TE Tyrone Swoopes, Seahawks: Could be active for special teams if Brown’s absence opens up a spot but would be the No. 3 tight end now that Willson is healthy.
- TE Richard Rodgers, Eagles: Likely active only if Ertz sits and will be in primarily to block even if so.
Meg Oliphant/Getty Images.
Pictured: Russell Wilson