Before I jump in to my RB strategy for 2025, here are a few key things to know from more of a general philosophical standpoint.
- I don’t rely heavily on win rate data, which tends to be more descriptive than predictive and depends heavily on circumstances unique to the year in question. The biggest takeaway from five years of win rate data is that pretty much any RB strategy can work.
- There is no “optimal” RB strategy. Some work better than others given the current ADP, value on the board, and where you’re picking from. I typically have 2-3 favored strategies, which may or may not be modifications of the same strategy. But even my less favored strategies are valuable in terms of diversifying my portfolio and increasing my chances of hitting in a large-field, top-heavy tournament like Underdog’s BBM.
- Third-down work is the least valuable type of work for RB upside. The leaders in third-down receptions at RB last season were Justice Hill and Javonte Williams with 15. Relative to early downs, third-down passing plays require a RB to block more often, while third-down receptions by RBs are less likely to go for first downs than those by WRs or TEs. Additionally, third-down roles are more complicated due to the increased blocking component, meaning they are more likely to be filled by specialists who wouldn’t inherit as much of the early-down work as non-third-down backs in the early-down back were to get injured (think Justice Hill, Ty Johnson, Dare Ogunbowale, etc.).
Both ADP and my player rankings are dynamic and subject to change, so be sure to check my most up-to-date 2025 Best-Ball rankings.
Note: Given that DraftKings ADP closely mirrors Underdog Fantasy ADP, especially through the first half of the draft, and that the extra 2 rounds on DraftKings have minimal impact on RB strategy, as only 3 RBs have an ADP in Rounds 19-20, all references to ADP/scoring, etc. are based on Underdog unless otherwise noted.
Rankings and ADPs will fluctuate after this article is posted. Be sure to check out our Best Ball rankings from Sean Koerner, Chris Raybon, and Chris Gimino for up-to-the-minute ranks.
To Zero RB or Not to Zero RB?
Zero RB has become the preferred strategy of many Best-Ball sharps in 2025. The original case for Zero RB was to capitalize off the majority of drafters spending their greatest amount of early-round draft capital at the injury-prone RB position by instead spending early-round capital on 4+ WRs, 1+ stud TEs, and potentially a stud QB while drafting from a pool of mid-to-late-round RBs that are “antifragile” because they benefit from the failure of early-round RBs — either directly (e.g. backup to starter who gets injured, etc.), indirectly (avoiding early-round busts at RB by drafting WRs, etc.) , or both.
The case for Zero RB in 2025 is based on some combination of the following factors:
- Drafters may abandon Zero RB after it tanked as arguably the most popular strategy of 2024
- There has been a greater influx of rookie RB talent than rookie WR talent from the 2025 NFL Draft
- Early-round RBs collectively overperformed and are likely to see a decrease in performance and an increase in price
- Early-round WRs collectively underperformed and are likely to see an increase in performance and a decrease in price
However, let’s look at the amount of players at each position taken through each of the first six rounds.
- 2025: 5 QB, 24 RB (5 rookie), 40 WR (2 rookie), 3 TE
- 2024: 7 QB, 18 RB (0 rookie), 40 WR (5 rookie), 7 TE
The data shows that while RBs that go in the first six rounds increased relative to last season, WRs still dominate, limiting the antifragility of Zero RB and indicating that it will still be among the most popular strategies even if employed less than last season. Rookie RBs have been priced up relative to rookie WRs, so no major edge for Zero RB there. RBs have been priced up, but rather than a corresponding decrease in WR price, we see the entire increase at RB offset by the “onesie” positions of QB and TE. In 2024, the average team drafted 1.16 combined QBs and TEs through Round 6. In 2025, the average team has only 0.67 combined QBs and TEs through Round 6.
Therefore, the key to maximizing the upside of the Zero RB strategy in 2025 is to prioritize drafting both a stud TE and a stud QB in the first six rounds rather than using every single selection at WR.
To understand why this is optimal, consider that the majority of QBs and TEs — the entire back half of the QB1/TE1 tiers and the entire front half of QB2/TE2 tiers — are each drafted within a 4-5 period.
- 13 QBs (QB6-18) are drafted in Rounds 8-11
- 12 TEs (TE6-17) are drafted in Rounds 9-12
- 29 combined QBs (QB6-20) and TEs (TE4-17) are drafted in Rounds 7-12
- 22 RBs (RB25-46) are drafted in Rounds 7-12
- 21 WRs (WR41-61) are drafted in Rounds 7-12
Since drafting quality at a position in the form of draft capital is inversely correlated with the need for depth, both quantity- and quality-wise, drafting a stud at QB/TE allows you to only roster two instead of three and minimizes the need for a high-end backup, allowing you to fade the onesie positions entirely and focus on RB in Rounds 7-12, a six-round period in which the average team drafts 2.4 combined QB/TEs but only 1.8 RBs.
And since Zero RB gives you a minimum of four WRs in the first six rounds, it also allows for minimizing WR selections in the WR41-61 range and maximizing RB selections in the RB25-46 range in Rounds 7-12, which historically has led to more upside. Over the past decade, RBs with an ADP of RB25-46 have finished top-12 at a rate of 10.0% compared to 4.3% for WR41-61, with those same RBs posting a top-24 finish 27.3% of the time compared to 17.1% for WRs.
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Top Strategy: Modified Anchor RB (Round 3-4 Anchor)
The traditional Anchor RB strategy is defined by selecting one RB in the first six rounds — typically within the first 2-3 rounds — to maximize upside at your RB1 slot while minimizing exposure to the risky RB2 tier.
Modified versions of the Anchor RB strategy revolve around how early or late to select the RB. In this case, I like targeting a RB specifically in Rounds 3-4.
To understand why I like this strategy the most, let’s look at how many RBs are drafted through each round.
- Round 1: 5 (RB1-5)
- Round 2: 5 (RB6-10)
- Round 3: 3 (RB11-13)
- Round 4: 2 (RB 14-15)
- Round 5: 4 (RB16-19)
- Round 6: 5 (RB 20-24)
After 5 RBs go in each of the first two rounds, just 5 total go in Rounds 3-4 combined (a span that often stretches into the middle of Round 5 before RB16 is taken).
Here are the rates of top-5/top-10 finishes by ADP in buckets of 5:
- RB1-5: 34% top 5, 50% top 10
- RB6-10: 24% top 5, 44% top 10
- RB11-15: 18% top 5, 42% top 10
- RB16-20: 4% top 5, 10% top 10
- RB21-25: 4% top 5, 8% top 10
Selecting my first in the RB11-15 range allows me to:
- Draft a RB from the top tier outside of Round 1 that maximizes odds of returning Round 1 value relative to draft capital spent.
- Draft a RB from the tier that maximizes odds of returning top-10 value relative to draft capital spent.
- Draft a RB from the least common range in Rounds 1-6
- Fade RBs in Rounds 1-6 from the most common two-round range (Rounds 1-2, 10 RB) and the most common individual rounds (Rounds 1/2/5, 5 RB each) in which RBs are selected
- Maximize odds of finding RB1 value while being overweight on WRs relative to the field through Round 3 (1.6 per team) and Round 4 (2.2 per team)
- Maximize odds of finding RB1 value while being overweight through Round 6 at both WR (3.33 per team) and a onesie position (0.67 per team).
- Maximize odds of exploiting overall ADP even if positional ADP is largely correct
- Pivot to Zero RB
Right now the RBs in the RB11-15 range are Kyren Williams, Chase Brown, Breece Hall, James Cook, and Omarion Hampton. I currently have Williams, Brown, Hall, and Cook in a separate tier than Hampton, given the uncertainty about his usage split with Najee Harris.
Among RBs in the next tier with the strongest case to replace Hampton, my vote goes to Alvin Kamara. If 29-year-old Christian McCaffrey is worth a Round 1 pick and 31-year-old Derrick Henry is worth a Round 2 pick, I think 30-year-old Kamara is worth a Round 4-5 pick. Kamara has as much pass-catching upside as any RB in the league, and there’s always a chance Kellen Moore uses 2025 Kamara like he did 2024 Saquon Barkley, who set career highs in touches per game (23.6) and carries per game (21.6).
Ranking the Other Strategies
Pretty much every RB strategy can be grouped into one of five core buckets depending on how many RBs are selected through the first six rounds, with modified versions accounting for exactly when those RBs are taken. Generally, the more early-round draft capital is spent at RB, the fewer total RBs are needed.
- Zero RB: 0 RBs in Rounds 1-6, 6-7 total
- Anchor RB: 1 RB in Rounds 1-6 (typically in Rounds 1-2), 5-6 total
- Double-Anchor: 2 RBs in Rounds 1-6 (typically in Rounds 1-3), 5-6 total
- Robust: 3 RBs in Rounds 1-6 (typically in Rounds 1-4), 5 total
- Hyperfragile RB: 4 RBs in Rounds 1-6 (typically in Rounds 1-4), 4-5 total
I like to separate RB strategies into three main tiers. Tier 1 contains my preferred version of Anchor RB and my preferred version of Zero RB. Tier 2 contains all other strategies with 2 or fewer RBs through six rounds, as I see a greater advantage to being at or underweight relative to the field at RB in the early rounds.
Tier 1 (Most Used)
- Anchor RB (Round 3-4 Anchor)
- Zero RB (4 WR/1 TE/1 QB)
Tier 2 (Moderate Usage)
- Double-Anchor (all versions)
- Zero RB (all other versions)
- Anchor RB (all other versions)
Tier 3 (Minimal Usage)
- Robust RB (all versions)
- Hyperfragile RB (4 RB, 2 WR)
Avoid
- Any strategy with more than 1 QB in Rounds 1-6
- Any strategy with more than 2 combined QB/TE in Rounds 1-6
- Any non-Hyperfragile strategy with fewer than 3 WRs in Rounds 1-6
- Any Hyperfragile strategy not including 4 RBs, 2 WRs in Rounds 1-6
- Zero RB extending past Round 9
I already broke down Tier 1, so here’s a breakdown of the strategies in Tiers 2-3.
Double Anchor
Despite providing a plethora of options at RB (RB1 in Round 1/2/3/4/5, RB2 in Round 2/3/4/5/6, 15 potential RB1-RB2 round pairings) and the ability to pivot to almost any other strategy, Double Anchor doesn’t make it into Tier 1 for me because 2 RBs through six rounds is still the chalk build, and the most contrarian version (RB1 in Round 3, RB2 in Round 4) amounts to picking 2 RBs from a pool of five, which doesn’t allow for enough combinations to be a go-to.
Selecting RB1 in Rounds 3-4 and RB2 in Rounds 5-6 allows you to select both RBs from a four-round span where only 9 RBs are drafted and fade Rounds 1-2, where RBs are drafted at more than twice that rate. The drawback here is that there is less of a drop-off at RB from Rounds 5-6 than at other positions, especially WR.
The barbell strategy (RB1 in Rounds 1-2, RB2 in Rounds 5-6) suffers from the same drawback at RB2 in addition to being the most chalky.
I prefer to have no fewer than 4 WRs through Round 6, so I don’t like that this strategy forces me to choose between a fourth WR and a stud TE or QB. It may be more optimal later in the offseason when there are more identifiable WR3/4 types available after Round 6.
I generally prefer to have at least 1 WR through the first two rounds, so I tend to favor WR-RB and RB-WR starts to RB-RB. I prefer fading Round 1 RBs, as the top half of the RB1 tier tends to be where most/all of the RBs with age-related concerns are taken (Saquon Barkley, Christian McCaffrey, Derrick Henry).
Starting RB-RB with this strategy works best the earlier you’re picking in Round 1, so you can get the best possible WR in Round 3.
If starting RB-RB at/near the Round 1/2 turn, I don’t mind reaching for any RB with an ADP before Round 4 to increase differentiation and unlock more potential RB-RB pairings without sacrificing much value, as no RB with an ADP before Round 4 is guaranteed to make it back to you at the Round 3/4 turn.
Robust RB
A true Robust RB strategy is to take 3 RBs in the first four rounds, but with only 15 RBs drafted on average through Round 4, this type of start is closer to fragile than robust.
The major drawback of Robust RB is that you need to draft 3 RBs from a limited pool of RBs, which maxes out at around 24 if you draft your RB3 in Round 6. But there’s limited upside to drafting RBs in Rounds 5-6 compared to the next few rounds, especially if you’ve already drafted 1-2 RBs in Rounds 1-4, where the pool of RBs shrinks to around 15-16 max.
The best pick slots to go with three RBs in the first four rounds are toward the middle of the draft, so you can draft for value in Rounds 1-2 and pivot to a strategy with fewer RBs if necessary.
The same applies to starting RB-RB-RB: The middle rounds let you pivot based on value if necessary. If you go RB-RB-RB from the front of the draft, you maximize your potential pool of RBs but don’t get to select a WR until the end of Round 4, which typically means WR3 types. If you go RB-RB-RB from the back of the draft, you can draft a mid-range/low-end WR2 in Round 4 instead of a WR3, but you’re limited to selecting 3 RBs from a very limited pool of RBs, typically 12 or less.
Hyperfragile RB
This strategy makes the most sense near the middle of the draft, where you can take advantage of RB value that falls and pivot to a strategy with fewer RBs if necessary.
This strategy also makes more sense later in the offseason when there are more identifiable WR3/4 types available past Round 6.
The True Antifragile RBs
With only 15 RBs drafted before Round 5 on average, true antifragile RBs are fewer and farther between than a decade ago when drafters were hammering RB early.
Ray Davis, BUF: Between James Cook (16) and Josh Allen (12), the Bills have 28 rushing TDs from 2024 being drafted prior to Round 5, with Davis the most likely beneficiary of any regression.
Tyler Allgeier, ATL: Drafted as an RB5 and would be in line for feature-back duties if first-rounder Bijan Robinson goes down.
Rico Dowdle, CAR: The failed Miles Sanders and Jonathon Brooks experiments suggest the Panthers could be looking to Dowdle as more of a 1b than a true backup to Chuba Hubbard. If Hubbard goes down, Dowdle likely sees volume similar to Hubbard last season.
Keaton Mitchell, BAL: Reportedly back to the form that saw him flash massive big-play upside in 2023. He would likely slot into Derrick Henry’s role if the 31-year-old were to go down and could cut into Henry’s workload even if healthy.
Will Shipley, PHI: The Eagles let longtime RB2 Kenneth Gainwell walk, so unless you believe A.J. Dillon is a thing, or that Shipley — a Round 4 pick in 2023 — is beat out by a rookie free agent, Shipley is a Saquon Barkley injury away from an RB1 ceiling.
Top Targets Regardless of Strategy
Bhaysul Tuten, JAX: He seems overvalued to some due to the uncertainty of a 3-way committee, but three-way committees almost never feature a relevant third RB, and I see Tuten’s floor as no lower than second as one of the highest-usage RB2s in the league after the new Liam Coen regime spent a fourth-round pick on Tuten despite Trevis Etienne and Tank Bigsby already being on the roster. The ceiling is 2024 Bucky Irving. If you’re not convinced, check Liam Coen’s work with the Bucs offensive line.
Alvin Kamara, NO: New coach who may have no choice but to force-feed him carries. No Taysom Hill or Jamaal Williams to steal goal-line work. As much catching upside as any RB in the league. Poor man’s Christian McCaffrey with less injury risk.
Top Fades Regardless of Strategy
Isiah Pacheco, KC: The Chiefs most valuable fantasy RB is most likely to be Pacheco. But that probability is much lower than it should be relative to Kareem Hunt, who outplayed Pacheco all of 2024. Or Brashard Smith, who has similar draft capital to Pacheco when he unexpectedly assumed lead back duties as a rookie. Or Elijah Mitchell, who has shown more upside than Hunt or Pacheco when healthy.
Joe Mixon, HOU: New OC. Nick Chubb. 3.59 YPC over his final eight games. Age: 29. The writing is on the wall.
David Montgomery, DET: No Ben Johnson. Big downgrade on the interior line. Fewer positive game scripts. Three missed games due to injuries in each of the past two seasons. Entering the first year of the typical RB decline phase (age-28 season). RB ahead of him, who is hard to keep on the bench.
How Your Approach to RB Stacking Can Provide a Massive Edge
Value, correlation, and differentiation are three of the main pillars drafters aim for with each roster. But these objectives can often work against each other. In order to complete a stack, drafters often have to reach, sacrificing value. And since drafters are placing a premium on stack creation, it results in less differentiation, with more rosters containing similar player pairings. The top priority when creating a stack is pairing a team’s QB with one or more of its pass-catchers (WR/TE), and the secondary priority tends to be bringing it back with members of the stack’s scheduled opponent during the championship week or one of the playoff weeks, which leads to a situation where pairing a RB with a member of his own team’s passing game is often avoided and rarely sought out.
One of the biggest ways to get an edge is to simply not avoid selections that would result in a RB stacked with his own team’s QB or pass-catchers.
For example, drafters who avoided James Cook (ADP 55.7) at RB after drafting Bills teammate Josh Allen (ADP 36.9) at QB were rewarded with lower advance rates across the board.
- Allen w/ Cook: 17.9% rostered, 21.1% playoffs, 4.20% semis, 0.20% finals
- Allen w/o Cook: 82.1% rostered, 18.2% playoffs, 1.50% semis, 0.00% finals
We see this same effect with various situations:
- QB Joe Burrow (87.5 ADP)-RB Chase Brown (111.0 ADP): 14.4% own, +22.1%/+4.1%/+0.1%
- WR Ja’Marr Chase (4.5 ADP)-RB Chase Brown (111.0 ADP): 16.1% own, +15.9%/+4.1%/+0.1%
- WR Tee Higgins (41.9 ADP)-RB Chase Brown (111.0 ADP): 11.4% own, +16.1%/+3.5%/+0.2%
- WR Mike Evans (25.3 ADP)-RB Bucky Irving (166.7 ADP): 10.2% own, +7.5%/+2.6%/+0.1%
The same is true in reverse — bypassing a RB because you planned to draft a QB later on would have hurt your odds of success.
- RB Saquon Barkley (ADP 18.8)-QB Jalen Hurts (ADP 40.3): 13.5% own, +2.0%
- RB Derrick Henry (ADP 30.9)-QB Lamar Jackson (ADP 46.8): 9.4% own, +21.0%/+2.8%/+1.1%
- RB Bucky Irving (ADP 166.7)-QB Baker Mayfield (ADP 169.8): 8.4% own, +13.3%/+4.4%/+0.1%
- RB Derrick Henry (ADP 30.9)-WR Zay Flowers (ADP 37.8): 4.6% own, +5.4%/-0.4%/0.0%
I wouldn’t go seeking RB stacks out, as that would end up resulting in the same pitfalls that come from targeting stacks otherwise, but I wouldn’t let an organically created RB stack cause me to fade a player who I would otherwise take. In certain cases when I want to maximize large-field tourney upside, I might stop short of completing a stack to get more differentiation, e.g Puka Nacua–Kyren Williams instead of Nacua-Williams-Matthew Stafford.
Note: All Best-Ball-specific data is via RotoViz.com. All other ADP data via FantasyData.com. All other data via Pro Football Reference unless otherwise noted.
Pictured: Breece Hall
Photo Credit: Getty Images
