NFL Trend of the Week
At last, we’ve reached the beginning of win-or-go-home football. Another season filled with brilliant ups and downs will culminate with the NFL’s finest product (well . . . except for the whole “Brock Osweiler vs. Connor Cook” thing). It’s called “Wild Card” weekend for a reason.
There are plenty of players on a roll heading into the playoffs, and now is the time when teams want to bring even more intensity and play their best football. So what would be an effective way to slow down a player who’s hot? Well, given that it’s January, the cold weather is likely to be an increasingly important factor on performance. Three of this weekend’s four games are played outside, and each of those three has a current projected temperature below 40 degrees Fahrenheit.
Let’s use the Trends tool to see what type of impact this can have on the skill positions.
Quarterbacks
Projections > Proj Pts > 2 to 25.7
We’re starting the trend by filtering out backup players and establishing a baseline DraftKings Plus/Minus of +1.78.
Trends > Pro Trends > 4 to 13
After adding in Pro Trends, the raw production, Plus/Minus, Consistency, and ownership of the cohort increase.
Weather Details > Temperature > 8 to 40 degrees
As we suspected, values decrease across the board when factoring in the cold weather. However, it’s important to notice that the Plus/Minus is still greater than our baseline, while the Consistency and ownership marks stay relatively equal to their initial values.
Other Skill Positions
Below is a table that illustrates the results of the same trend for the other skill positions.
Naturally, the Plus/Minus increases for every skill position when adding the Pro Trends filter, just as it did with quarterbacks. However, running backs and wide receivers are the only positions that show an increase once cold weather is factored in. This seems to make sense for running backs, as it would match the narrative that teams favor the old-fashioned ground game in the cold. However, it is somewhat strange that receivers get a similar boost.
Interestingly, the tight end position is the only group to fall beneath the baseline Plus/Minus. Apparently the cold doesn’t bode well for them, regardless of their high Pro Trends. As for the other positions, it’s clear that cold weather is not as strong a factor as one may initially expect.
Enjoy the playoffs and good luck this week!
