The PGA Breakdown offers data-driven analysis for each week’s slate, using the FantasyLabs Tools and metrics to highlight notable golfers.
We have another loaded field on tap as the FedExCup Playoffs continue at TPC Boston. It’ll be easier for golfers to make the weekend: The top 70 (plus ties) among the 98 players participating will make the cut.
As always, I back-tested various metrics within our PGA Models to find out which have been the most valuable at TPC Boston. Per the Trends tool, here is how the top 20% of golfers in various metrics have done (in Plus/Minus valuation) at this course. Historically, the tournament has yielded averages of 60.25 DraftKings points and a +8.82 Plus/Minus with a 70.1% Consistency Rating to the field.
I’m listing only the metrics that tested positively above the baseline:
- Course Driving Accuracy: +4.14
- Recent Driving Accuracy: +3.28
- Long-Term Tournament Count: +1.42
- Long-Term Driving Distance: +0.29
- Course Putts Per Round: +0.26
The results that back-tested positively above the baseline are interesting. The +8.82 baseline is exceptionally high because some of the low-to-mid-priced golfers have fared well at this course over the past few years, while the top-end golfers ($10,000 and above) have scored slightly below salary-based expectations on average. With the inflated baseline Plus/Minus, there was an abundance of metrics that tested just below baseline that I will still be weighting.
I am not surprised that two accuracy metrics back-tested well, as the fairways at TPC Boston are rather wide and easy to hit. Paying attention to mostly accuracy may lead to a more contrarian lineup because there are instances in which bombers will have an advantage. This course features five par 4s between 450-510 yards, so par-4 scoring will be important. Longer hitters should have an edge on the longer par 4s if they’re able to hit wedges with their approach. However, there are shorter par 4s littered throughout the course that everyone can take advantage of. Shorter hitters have also historically had some success at TPC Boston, so they shouldn’t be ignored entirely.
Per our PGA Correlation Matrix, Vegas Odds Score, Long-Term Adjusted Round Score (LT Adj Rd Score), Long-Term Greens in Regulation (LT GIR), and Long-Term Birdies are among the most correlated metrics to fantasy points scored.
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The Studs
Dustin Johnson ($11,600) checks in with a field-best 67.7 LT Adj Rd Score and the highest odds to win (10.5%). Few golfers can match his 16.5 birdies per tournament and -1.6 average adjusted strokes on par 4s. His par-5 and par-4 scoring are top-two marks in the field. Given that just about 30% of the field will be cut this week, there is less risk in rostering some of the lower-priced values to get to DJ, making the stars-and-scrubs roster build more enticing in GPPs.
Justin Thomas ($11,400) is slightly cheaper than DJ and won at this course last year. Since August, he has turned on the burners, posting three top-eight finishes over his past three starts. Over the past six weeks, he leads the field with a 67.1 Recent Adj Rd Score and ranks third with -4.0 average adjusted strokes on par 4s.
Brooks Koepka ($11,000) has finally overtaken DJ for the most birdies per tournament (17) over the past 75 weeks. Unsurprisingly, Koepka has the third-highest salary, LT Adj Rd Score (68.1), and implied odds to win (7.7%).
It’s difficult to separate either of these $11,000-plus golfers when constructing rosters, but if you have the salary, siding with DJ seems like the no-brainer considering he leads the tour in scoring average and Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green.
Jason Day ($10,400) has historically crushed at TPC Boston with five top-15 finishes in his past seven appearances. His 16 birdies per tournament over the past 75 weeks is the fourth-best mark in the field, and he’s in excellent recent form, sporting a 67.5 Recent Adjusted Round Score. He’s my favorite play in the $10,000-$11,600 price range.
The Value Plays
One way to find value is to leverage our Long-Term Adjusted Round Score metric. If you sort the field by LT Adj Rd Score, you are looking at a list of players who have been the best golfers over the past 75 weeks. Among these golfers, those who have low salaries make great value plays.
Paul Casey ($7,900) was all over the map last week, shooting a 67, 73, 69 and 74. Since he’s priced below $8,000 in this stacked field, he should be in consideration with his 68.2 LT Adj Rd Score — the fifth-best mark in the field. He’s typically a good bet to make the cut with his 5% missed-cut rate over the past 75 weeks, and that’s elevated this week with the smaller field. Casey has shown success here in the past, finishing fourth and second in 2017 and 2016.
Zach Johnson ($7,500) isn’t long off the tee (288.9-yard Long-Term Driving Distance), but he’s an excellent putter, and over his past eight tournaments he’s posted six top-20 finishes. Additionally, over the past six weeks, he’s averaging a solid -1.8 average adjusted strokes on par 4s.
After a shaky Day 1 at the Northern Trust, Marc Leishman ($8,000) bounced back to make the cut. Similar to Casey, he’s constantly underpriced in these stacked fields relative to his LT Adj Rd Score (68.7). Leishman posted a third-place finish here last year, and he’s averaging a +5.39 Plus/Minus with an 80% Consistency Rating over the past month.
Keegan Bradley ($7,200) was cruising through the Northern Trust after shooting a 62 on Day 3, but on Day 4 he shot 16 strokes worse… posting a 78. I like him on this track with his 301.7-yard LT DD and 67.8% LT GIR marks. Since 2012, Bradley hasn’t finished any worse than 35th at TPC Boston, including three top-16 finishes.
Ian Poulter ($7,400) has missed just two cuts since March, and over his past 10 starts he’s averaging a +8.89 Plus/Minus with an 80% Consistency Rating. He and Casey are the only two golfers in the $7k range who are averaging over 14 birdies per tournament over the past 75 weeks.
The Bump and Run
Tony Finau ($8,800) is one of the longest drivers on tour (313.5-yard LT DD), and he’s posted nine top-10 finishes along with three second-place finishes this season.
Justin Rose ($9,300) burned a lot of people last week as one of the highest-owned golfers. He hit 72.2% of GIR, but his putter was ice cold, averaging 32 putts per round. People may be quick to cross him off this week in fear of his recent back injury, but I’m banking on his poor play being a result of unlucky putting.
Tommy Fleetwood ($8,500) is extremely affordable; he’s a perfect blend of power (300.8-yard LT DD) and accuracy (66.7% Driving Accuracy). His 71.5% LT GIR leads the field, and he is one of two golfers (Rose is the other) who boasts a GIR percentage of at least 70% with a LT Driving Distance over 300 yards.
Webb Simpson ($8,300) boasts a 67.7 Recent Adjusted Round Score, and in the same time frame he’s averaged -2.8 average adjusted strokes on par 4s. He possesses a field-best 63.8% Scrambling mark, which increases his safety.
A combination of Jon Rahm ($9,100) and Patrick Cantlay ($9,000), along with the four golfers mentioned above, makes for a strong cash-game approach. Depending on the build, you can fit up to four of them on a team while providing your roster with a high floor and plenty of upside.
Under $7,000
When you’re on a strict budget…
Keith Mitchell ($6,500): He’s a volatile option, but he leads the field with a 317.2-yard LT DD, and he’s averaging 14 birdies per tournament over the past 75 weeks. Given that fewer golfers are cut this week, embracing volatility could pay off.
Austin Cook ($6,600): He continues to make cuts and this week should be no different. His 14.5 birdies per tournament mark leads this price range, and his -1.2 average adjusted strokes on par 4s trails only the marks of Spieth, DJ and Rose.
Kevin Tway ($6,600): His five Pro Trends are second most in this price range, while his -4.7 average adjusted strokes on par 5s is tied for the best. He’ll also have a distance advantage, evidenced by his 310.2-yard LT DD.
Good luck, and be sure to check out The Action Network if you’re looking for more golf coverage!
Pictured above: Adam Scott and Dustin Johnson
Photo credit: NorthJersey.com-USA TODAY NETWORK
