FantasyLabs is a data company. With our free Trends tool and Player Models, you can leverage our advanced statistics and premium exclusive metrics to identify players to use in your daily fantasy sports lineups.
Each week, our Data Dive articles use 10 of these metrics to highlight notable players for the week’s PGA DFS slate.
For this special US Open week, we are putting out three separate Data Dives, one for each salary tier. Part 1 focused on players $6,900 and lower (the “value plays”). Part 2 focuses on the golfers priced between $7,000 and $8,900. Part 3 on Wednesday will look at golfers priced $9,000 and higher.
Long-Term Stats
If you were a bad-*ss who listened to N.W.A. growing up like me, then you are old remember Dr. Dre’s opening line to “Straight Outta Compton”: You are now about to witness the strength of street knowledge.
In Part 2 of the US Open Data Dive, you are now about to witness the strength of . . .
Adjusted Round Score: 68.7, Matt Kuchar
As stated in Part 1 by Bryan Mears, Adjusted Round Score (Adj Rd Score) is our best all-in-one statistical proxy for a golfer’s talent. Given that the eight golfers with Long-Term Adj Rd Scores better than Kuchar’s have an average salary of $10,737.50 (compared to Kuchar’s $8,500), he seems to be severely underpriced. Historically, golfers in this salary tier with Adj Rd Scores below 70 have consistently crushed value. Kuchar is also in ridiculous form right now, with an average finish of fourth in his last four tournaments.
Greens in Regulation: 73.4%, Matthew Fitzpatrick
‘Greens in Regulation’ as a metric is the percentage of holes on which a golfer reaches the green in at least two strokes less than par. With birdies expected to be hard to come by in the tournament, it would make sense to roster golfers who give themselves the most opportunities at birdie attempts. Fitzpatrick’s Long-Term GIR is not just tops in this salary tier. It’s also the fourth-best in the entire field. (Note to self: Consider making an entire roster of players named ‘Matt.’) [Editor’s Note: Great idea.]
Driving Distance: 309.2 yds, J.B. Holmes
It’s no secret that J.B. Holmes has a long . . . Long-Term Driving Distance, but it remains to be seen if distance off the tee will help him at Oakmont. More encouraging this week is his LT Adj Rd Score of 69.2, which as mentioned above has historically returned big value in this salary tier. Holmes finished fourth at the Masters earlier this year and his 72.2 fantasy points per game this season are 15th-best in this week’s elite field.
Long-Term Adj Rd Score, GIR, Driving Distance, and other premium exclusive metrics are accessible via our free Ratings tool.
Birdies Per Tournament: 15.3, Sergio Garcia
Garcia’s Long-Term Birdie average is actually slightly behind the previously highlighted Kuchar ‘s 15.4 and tied with Patrick Reed at 15.3. Garcia won the last tournament he played in, the Byron Nelson Championship. Although Sergio has never won a Major Championship, he typically shows up in them, with four 2nd-place finishes and six other top-five finishes, including a third-place performance at the US Open.
Consistency: 87%, Lee Westwood
Kuchar is actually the most consistent player in this salary tier at a whopping 95-percent Consistency in 23 starts, continually reinforcing the fact that he is severely mispriced this week. Next up at 87 percent is Westwood, whose Recent Adj Rd Score of 68.4 is 10th-best in the field. He hasn’t played a ton of golf on this side of the pond this season, but he did finish second at The Masters in April.
Recent Stats
Here’s a murder rap to keep y’all dancing, with a crime record like Charles Manson
Adjusted Round Score: 67.5, Brooks Koepka
Koepka’s Recent Adj Rd Score is actually second in this category behind Kuchar’s 67. I wanted to change the name of this piece to PGA Data Dive: Matt Kuchar but the editors wouldn’t let me. [Editor’s Note: He never asked.] Most of Kopeka’s numbers, both Long-Term and Recent, aren’t that far from Kuchar’s, indicating that Koepka could also be undervalued. While you sacrifice a bit of Kuchar’s Consistency with Koepka, you do gain Upside, as he has finished 2nd in his last two tournaments. In addition to ranking second in this category within his salary tier, Koepka is also tied with Dustin Johnson for fifth-best Recent Adj Rd Score in the entire field.
Greens in Regulation: 75%, Jason Dufner
Finally a metric not dominated by Kuchar. Dufner’s 75-percent Recent GIR is elite not just for this salary tier but also for the entire field, ranking second overall. Golfers in this salary tier with similar Recent GIR percentages have dependably exceeded value with a Plus/Minus of +3.18. And it’s not just the recent greens where Dufner is excelling. His Recent Adj Rd Score of 68.3 is tied for ninth in the field.
Driving Distance: 305.1 yds, Jimmy Walker
Holmes and Koepka, both previously highlighted, outperform Walker in this metric, but Walker still has a notable Recent Driving Distance and is worth talking about. Although Walker his surpassed his Long-Term Driving Distance with his recent play, his Recent Adj Rd Score has increased (not good) from 69.6 to 70.8 and his Recent GIR and Recent Birides have both decreased. In an admittedly small sample, golfers who have seen comparable increases in driving distance and Recent Adj Rd Score have provided a very negative return.
Birdies Per Tournament: 18.7, Charl Schwartzel
In this salary tier, Sergio had the best Recent Birdie Average at 21, second in the field only to Jason Day. Kuchar (seriously!) was next at 20.3, third-best in the entire field. Making our way down the list we find Scwartzel. Charl has used his birdie acumen in a Major previously, winning the 2011 Masters with four birdies on the final four holes. He won the Valspar Championship earlier this season and finished seventh at the US Open last year.
Consistency: 100%, Zach Johnson
Because of the small sample size there were a ton of golfers in this price tier with 100 percent Recent Consistency. Seven of them have already been highlighted in this piece, and one is, of course, Kuchar. Yet to be mentioned, though, is Johnson, a two-time Major Champion with wins at the Masters and The Open Championship. Johnson’s 64.1-percent Recent Scrambling is 11th in the field and should come in handy at Oakmont.
Bonus
D*mn, that sh*t was dope
Pro Trends: 14, Brooks Koepka
Up until this point I have avoided the highlight double-dip, a laborious task thanks to Kuchar, Sergio, and Koepka, all of whom have double-digit Pro Trends. Koepka’s 14 are not only the most in this salary tier. They are also the most in the entire field, one ahead of Jason Day’s, Rory McIlroy’s, and Dustin Johnson’s totals — so he’s worthy of mention again. One of the 14 matches for Koepka is “At Least 2% Vegas-Implied Odds of Winning,” which has historically been good for a Plus/Minus of +4.44 with 60.2-percent Consistency.
If you want a golfer besides Koepka, it’s Daniel Berger, whose nine Pro Trends tie him with the previously mentioned Dufner in this salary range.
