Raybon’s Week 11 NFL DFS Breakdown: Packers-Seahawks Thursday Night Showdown

Here’s a breakdown of the Thursday Night Football one-game DFS slate featuring the Green Bay Packers at Seattle Seahawks that kicks at 8:20 p.m. ET on NFL Network and FOX.

Green Bay Packers

• From a fantasy perspective, what’s most promising about Aaron Jones isn’t his back-to-back season-highs in carries (14 in Week 9 and 15 in Week 10), last week’s season-high snap rate (74%) or even the Seahawks’ run-funneling defense; it’s his nine targets over the past two games. Absent the traded Ty Montgomery and hamstrung Randall Cobb, Jones’ passing-game usage should continue to trend upward, which stabilizes his floor as an underdog on the road, where his team has lost all four of its games by an average margin of 9.8 points this season.
• Marquez Valdes-Scantling has already cemented himself as a top-three receiver for Green Bay, so the other top beneficiaries of Cobb’s latest absence are fellow rookie wideout Equanimeous St. Brown and veteran tight end Lance Kendricks. Both are normally on the field for fewer than 40% of the snaps, but Kendricks and St. Brown played 61% and 58% of the snaps, respectively, when Cobb sat last week.

 

 

Seattle Seahawks

One of the main reasons I was more bullish on the Seahawks than most this preseason was that I thought their run game would be much improved with new offensive coordinator Brian Schottenheimer, new offensive line coach Mike Solari and a depth chart of backs not named Eddie Lacy.

Unfortunately for us, it’s gotten a little too good, to the point where everyone they line up next to Russell Wilson falls out of bed into a 100-yard rushing game, which has potentially created a three-way committee after Rashaad Penny’s latest outburst and Chris Carson due back from a hip injury.

• The coaching staff says Carson will regain his starting role, which gives him the most value in the Seattle backfield considering he’s not its highest-priced member on DraftKings or FanDuel.
• Mike Davis’ 11-67-1 receiving line on 14 targets over the past two games make him a better bet on the DraftKings.
• Penny is the wild card: He could lead the team in carries or play zero snaps on offense.

 

Roster Construction Notes

• The fantasy points of Seattle’s RB1 have had a negative correlation with every other position on the team this season except for D/ST (.71) and WR1 (.03 aka no correlation), as well as every position on the opposing team except for RB1, per our NFL Correlations Dashboard.
• The points of the Green Bay RB1 have been positively correlated with every position on the team except for RB2 (-.41) and TE1 (-.26).

Cash Game Strategy

On DraftKings, the best way to gain as much exposure to each team’s passing and running game as possible is to go Rodgers-Jones-Wilson-Carson-Davis in the flex and fill the Captain slot with David Moore, who has seen 37% of Seattle’s air yards over the past three weeks.

You can’t get in both quarterbacks and their top backs on FanDuel. Rodgers and Wilson are projected for roughly five points more than any other player on the slate, so it comes down to which backfield to fade. Going Rodgers-Wilson-Jones forces you to punt two spots, but going Rodgers-Wilson-Carson-Davis forces you to punt only one and gives you access to more potential Seahawks rushing touchdowns.

Tournament Strategy

Both of these teams want to run but struggle to stop it, so the best strategy for this slate is to build lineups around a running back in the 1.5x slot … or Davante Adams, who has caught a touchdown in seven of nine games.

Wilson, who thrives under the lights, has started to run more and has 14 attempts over his past two games after 19 over his first seven, which makes him a better bet than most quarterbacks for the 1.5x slot. (Though for what it’s worth, only one of those 14 attempts came inside the red zone.)

Penny and Jamaal Williams are the top leverage plays due to their potential to siphon touchdowns from their higher-owned teammates.

Running as Rodgers’ No. 3 receiver sets St. Brown up as the best dart throw. Honorable mention to Nick Vannett, who continues to get more burn than Ed Dickson and clocks in with a top-four Projected Plus/Minus in our DK Showdown Models, along with Sebastian Janikowski, Mason Crosby and St. Brown. Speaking of which, Monday night’s winning lineup in DraftKings’ largest guaranteed prize pool featured both kickers, which could also work on this slate in what projects to be a close and relatively high-scoring game (see live odds here).

Let’s get this shmoney!

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Chris Raybon is a Senior Editor at the Action Network and a co-host of “I’ll Take That Bet” on ESPN+. He has watched every snap of every NFL game since 2010 — even the kneel downs. Follow him on Twitter @ChrisRaybon and read about how he quit his accounting job and got paid to watch sports.

Pictured above: Green Bay Packers running back Aaron Jones (33) and quarterback Aaron Rodgers (12)
Photo credit: Brad Rempel-USA TODAY Sports