The Packers will head to Minnesota as 2.5-point favorites. Their implied point total is 23.25 points, whereas the Vikings’ implied point total is 20.75 points. It’s not cold yet in Minneapolis; game time projects to be a perfect 70 degrees with no rain. The NFC North champion has been one of these two teams for the past five seasons and their matchup Sunday night could go a long way towards deciding who is crowned this year.
Green Bay Packers
Writer: Ian Hartitz
QB – Aaron Rodgers
It intuitively makes sense that Rodgers might be a better fantasy quarterback on the road considering Green Bay’s typical less-than-perfect weather conditions, but this hasn’t been the case since 2014:
According to our Trends tool, Rodgers’ -0.57 Plus/Minus is far removed from his +5.02 Plus/Minus at home, and his 41.2 percent Consistency on the road demonstrates his struggles to consistently hit his lofty average expected point total. He didn’t look great on the road in Week 1 against the Jaguars with just 5.9 yards per attempt, but it wasn’t for lack of trying: His six deep-ball attempts were the fourth-most among all quarterbacks. Rodgers is the third-highest priced quarterback on FanDuel this week, but his 19.2-point projection is just the sixth-highest among all quarterbacks. The Vikings were tough on quarterbacks in 2015, finishing in the top-10 in Plus/Minus allowed to the position.
RB – Eddie Lacy
Lacy was the Packers’ undisputed lead back in Week 1, getting 75 percent of all running back touches. He also played more passing downs than Starks, which hints that Lacy may have earned back his three-down role. His five red-zone carries were the fourth-most among all running backs in Week 1, although he wasn’t able to find the end zone. This was Lacy’s biggest issue in 2015, as he scored just five touchdowns on the season. He’s priced at $7,000 on FanDuel with a 95 percent Bargain Rating, but the Vikings did have the sixth-best defense in Plus/Minus allowed to running backs in 2015.
RB – James Starks
Starks totaled just 13 yards on five touches in Week 1 and this could be his new norm if Lacy is able to run away with the starting job. Starks was rated as the third-best pass-blocking back of Week 1 by PFF, but he stayed in to block on over a third of his passing snaps. His -1.8 Projected Plus/Minus is the fourth-lowest among all running backs priced at $4,000 or above on DraftKings.
WR – Jordy Nelson
‘White Lightning’ is BACK . . . sort of. Nelson caught six of his team-leading nine targets in his first game since the 2014 season, but his 5.2 yards-per-reception average was nearly 10 yards lower than his career average of 15.1. He continued to be Rodgers’ go-to receiver in the red zone, as his three red-zone receptions were the most in Week 1, per playerprofiler.com. None of the Vikings’ cornerbacks were graded higher than 43rd by PFF, although the Vikings’ sixth-ranked defense in sack rate could limit the amount of time their secondary is forced to cover. Nelson has the lowest projected ceiling among the 12 receivers with a DraftKings salary of $7,500 or higher and his 13 to 16 percent projected ownership is tied for the fourth-highest among all wide receivers.
WR – Randall Cobb
Cobb finished second on the Packers with eight targets in Week 1 but first in snaps played with 62. Several of those snaps came with him lined up in the backfield, where he rushed for 11 yards on three carries. Cobb has lined up in the backfield plenty during his career, but the most carries he’s ever had in a season is just 13. He’s averaged 7.3 yards per carry on his 43 career rushes and could be on his way to becoming one of very few receivers to rack up rush attempts if the Packers continue to feature him in their running game. Since 2000, only Percy Harvin and Tavon Austin have compiled at least 50 carries and receptions in a single season as a wide receiver, and both had the best fantasy seasons of their careers. Cobb is priced at $7,400 on FanDuel with a 97 percent Bargain Rating.
WR – Davante Adams
Although Adams received seven targets in Week 1, he managed to reel in only three of them. One of the targets he did catch was a remarkable broken play that saw Rodgers find Adams for a 29-yard touchdown; it appears that Adams will have yet another chance to lock down the Packers’ third-receiver role. Still, Adams’ 5.1 yards-per-target mark in 2015 ranked 105th among all wide receivers and his touchdown Sunday now gives him two in his last 14 games. He has a Projected Plus/Minus of -1.1 against PFF’s seventh-ranked secondary.
TE – Jared Cook
Cook played less than half of the Packers’ offensive snaps (33 of 68) and only ran a pass route on 18 of Aaron Rodgers’ 37 total drop backs. Cook’s talent was once again left to the side; he was an afterthought in the Packers’ offense despite positive game flow and a matchup against a Jaguars defense that allowed the sixth-most average fantasy points to tight ends in 2015. Richard Rodgers played 25 snaps and ran 15 routes, which is enough snaps to severely limit Cook’s ceiling but not enough to make Rodgers relevant himself. Until something gives, Cook will be a very volatile and TD-dependent DFS option whose minimum price on DraftKings will continue to look enticing thanks to his raw talent.
Minnesota Vikings
Writer: Ian Hartitz
QB – Sam Bradford
While head coach Mike Zimmer has not named a starting quarterback for Sunday’s game against the Packers, all signs continue to point towards Bradford being that guy. The Vikings didn’t trade first- and fourth-round picks to sit him on the bench, and he reportedly took every first-team snap during practice Wednesday. Bradford set career highs in passing yards, yards per attempt, and completion percentage in 2015, although he finished 30th in average DraftKings points per game among all quarterbacks. The Packers allowed the ninth-fewest average fantasy points to wide receivers in 2015; the Vikings’ passing game has limited upside in this matchup.
RB – Adrian Peterson
Peterson was shut down in Week 1, averaging just 1.6 yards per carry on his 19 attempts. It was his worst rushing performance ever with 15 or more attempts in a game, per PFR. Peterson was unable to break free for any big runs (his longest was nine yards) and struggled to make much happen with the box routinely stacked with eight or more defenders. He evaded just one tackle on the afternoon and his 2.3 yards-after-contact average in 2015 ranked just 29th among all running backs, per PFF. Peterson will face a Packers defense that finished 2015 in the top 10 in Plus/Minus allowed to running backs. Similarly-priced backs averaged a -4.16 Plus/Minus in 2015 when facing a top-10 defense in Plus/Minus allowed to the position.
RB – Jerick McKinnon
McKinnon received just two touches in Week 1. He was on the field for 16 total snaps and was outsnapped by Peterson on passing snaps. McKinnon won’t be a fantasy option until he carves out a bigger role in the offense.
WR – Stefon Diggs
Diggs’ 103 receiving yards in Week 1 marked the first time since Week 7 of 2015 that he surpassed 70 receiving yards. His nine targets led all Vikings receivers and he’ll look to continue his dominance against NFC North opponents on Sunday night:
In five games against divisional opponents, Diggs has averaged a +7.15 Plus/Minus with 80 percent Consistency. The Packers’ No. 1 cornerback Sam Shields suffered a concussion in Week 1 and is questionable for Sunday. Even if Shields doesn’t play, Diggs will still see a lot of Damarious Randall, PFF’s highest-rated cornerback from Week 1.
WR – Charles Johnson
The good: Johnson finished second among all Vikings receivers with six targets in Week 1. The bad: He gained five yards. Johnson is the clear-cut No. 2 receiver with Mike Wallace now in Baltimore, and he has averaged 13 PPR points in his six career games with five or more targets. Still, there’s no room for him to be featured in the offense considering the Vikings called the fourth-most run plays in the league in 2015. Johnson does have the second-highest projected ceiling among all minimum-priced receivers on DraftKings, but he faces a Packers defense that finished 2015 as a top-eight unit in Plus/Minus allowed to wide receivers.
WR – Adam Thielen
Thielen had just 20 targets in his career before being targeted five times in the Vikings’ season opener. It’s likely not sustainable considering Jarius Wright was out and Laquon Treadwell figures to become a part of the offense at some point, but his 80 percent catch rate with Shaun Hill showed some chemistry. He won’t be a fantasy option unless Diggs or Johnson miss some time.
TE – Kyle Rudolph
Rudolph averaged just 4.5 targets per game in 2015 but reeled in four of his eight targets in Week 1. This was the fourth-highest number of targets among all tight ends in Week 1 and marked just the 11th time in 65 career games Rudolph received eight or more targets. He averaged nearly 15 PPR points per game in those 11 games, well over his average of 6.6 PPR points per game in games with fewer than eight targets. Rudolph could finally be turning the corner, or perhaps he’s just teasing like usual. Either way, he’ll have a tough matchup against a Packers defense that finished 2015 in the top 10 in Plus/Minus allowed to tight ends.
News Updates
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