Several weeks ago, I put together an article that speculated how the new extra point rules may affect scoring in DFS. Now that we have over a month’s worth of results, I’d like to take some time to reexamine the topic and see which teams are doing what. By understanding team tendencies, I believe it will be possible to leverage the new PAT rule into an edge that not many are really thinking about in GPPs.
At the time of this writing, Pittsburgh has not yet played their Week 5 game (Monday Night Football). However, they are still leading the league in two-point conversion attempts with four – or one per game. At the moment, the Steelers have a total of 11 offensive touchdowns, meaning they are going for two after roughly a third of their TDs.
Interestingly, the Steelers have not yet attempted a two-point conversion in the fourth quarter this year. Excluding Pittsburgh, 26 of the 33 two-point conversions attempted so far in 2015 have occurred in the fourth quarter. Pittsburgh is taking a unique approach and trying to put pressure on their opponent early in the game.
Also interesting, on each two-point attempt, Pittsburgh has called a pass play. They have successfully converted three of four opportunities. It will be interesting to see if they continue to be aggressive with Vick running the show for the near future.
One thing that’s for sure: avoid the Steelers kicking game on FanDuel. Outside of the fact that they have just not been that accurate, extra points will likely continue to be vultured. Even though the Steelers have scored 24.6 points per game in 2015, Josh Scobee ranked as one of the worst kickers by Plus/Minus through the first four weeks.
The Browns have shown that when they are down in the fourth quarter, they don’t mind going for two. They’ve attempted three conversions, all coming in the fourth quarter. Each time, the Browns have attempted a pass play (two successes, one failure).
Here’s the thing about the Browns, if you think game script is going to favor a scenario where they will be down heading into the fourth quarter, Josh McCown has a chance to go from a “four points for every passing TD” QB to a “six points for every passing TD” QB on DraftKings. Given his generally cheap price point, he starts to become an attractive GPP punt play for me, depending on the matchup.
Atlanta is another interesting case. From Pro Football Reference, here are their attempts on the season:
Two of their attempts came while the Falcons were leading (one in garbage time) and the other came midway through the third quarter in a game they were trailing by less than a touchdown. This is a team to watch because their use hasn’t fit the “Only attempt two when trailing in the fourth quarter” usage that many teams have followed to this point.
Matt Bryant has long been one of the steadiest kickers in the league. However, playing a position that is very much judged on, “What have you done for me lately?” Bryant missed a couple of makeable field goals in Week 5. If that becomes a pattern rather than a fluke, I wouldn’t be surprised to see the Falcons be more aggressive after touchdowns. Given that they are a top three scoring offense in 2015, that could be something that matters in DFS.
Overall, just eight of the 37 two-point conversions attempted this year have been rushes:
The Lions had one attempt in the fourth quarter versus the Vikings that would have cut Minnesota’s lead to eight points and the other was an early third quarter attempt against the Broncos that would have tied the game at 14. Based on that usage, it will be interesting to see if the Lions continue to go for two points based more on score than time remaining.
To this point, they are one of only eight teams to attempt a two-point conversion before the fourth quarter. They are also the only team that has more than one rushing attempt. This could be a nice little bonus for the Lions goal line back down the line. I mean, they can’t be this bad forever, right…right?
It’s still early in the season and many teams are still adapting to the new PAT rule. Already though, several teams are starting to show usage patterns in their two-point attempts. So much of NFL DFS today is about predicting game script. If you can match a team’s game script to a two-point conversion tendency, it’s a nice little way to add some hidden upside to your lineup that almost no one else is considering.
