Sean Koerner, our Director of Predictive Analytics, highlights his favorite NFL props at PrizePicks on the Fantasy Flex Podcast each Friday with Chris Raybon.
PrizePicks is a daily fantasy operator — meaning they’re available in more states than sports betting is! — that offers a unique opportunity for action on player props in which you parlay two or more plays together.
Jacoby Brissett Over 0.5 Interceptions
Brissett has a 4.7% turnover-worthy play rate, per PFF, and only one interception on the year. Normally, we would expect closer to three interceptions with a TWP rate that high, which means he’s been lucky.
Brissett should be forced to throw a ton against the Buccaneers with the Dolphins sitting as +10 underdogs (shop the latest odds here), greatly increasing his chances of throwing an interception to around 58-60%.
Malcolm Brown Under 27.5 Rush Yards
Brown is a part of a three-way committee alongside Myles Gaskin and Salvon Ahmed — not to mention the Dolphins are up against Tampa Bay’s top rushing defense. The negative game script will cut back on Brown’s usage even more. I project Brown closer to 20.5 rush yards on Sunday.
James Conner Over 33.5 Rush Yards
Conner has been a pleasant surprise this season, seamlessly taking over Kenyan Drake’s roll in Arizona. As the only undefeated team left standing, Conner will continue to thrive in positive game scripts.
The Cardinals are 4.5-point home favorites in Week 5 and Conner should see around 55% of rush attempts compared to 45% for Chase Edmonds. I see Conner as having a high floor on Sunday, with 11 or 12 carries and project him closer to 41.5 rush yards.
Courtland Sutton Over 52.5 Receiving Yards
Sutton had three receptions for 47 yards and zero touchdowns in Week 5, with the Broncos only throwing for 178 yards. Teddy Bridgewater went down with a concussion, leading to a revamp of the Drew Lock experiment. Luckily, Bridgewater is trending in the right direction with a limited practice Thursday. So long as Bridgewater is under center, this is an easy play.
Tyreek Hill Under 89.5 Receiving Yards
Hill has had a wide range of outcomes this season. He put up 197 receiving yards in Week 1 and 186 in Week 4, but finished with just 14 in Week 2 and 56 in Week 3.
The Bills are obviously a tough matchup as they come off of their 40-0 romp of the Texans ranking first in Football Outsiders’ DVOA against the pass and overall. Buffalo has yet to allow a wideout to top 65 receiving yards.
I project Hill closer to 82.5 receiving yards this week.