One of the best ways to enjoy a standalone game like Thursday Night Football is to bet player props.
When it comes to NFL prop projections, there is simply no one better than our Director of Predictive Analytics, Sean Koerner. Using his projections in our Player Props Tool at Action Labs, we can easily identify the biggest advantages to help build our bankroll.
Each Thursday, I’ll identify which TNF props on PrizePicks have the most attractive value when compared with Sean’s projections. Let’s take a closer look at the Week 8 matchup between the Green Bay Packers and the Arizona Cardinals.
What is PrizePicks? A daily fantasy operator — meaning they’re available in more states than sports betting is! — PrizePicks offers a unique opportunity for action on player props in which you parlay two or more plays together.
NFL Prop Picks for TNF
Aaron Rodgers Over 257.5 Passing Yards
The popular thought for tonight is Aaron Rodgers’ passing production will be limited without All-Pro wide receiver Davante Adams (COVID). History tells us another story:
In the six games since 2019 that he has played without Adams, Rodgers has averaged six more fantasy points, 0.7 more touchdowns, and almost 65 more passing yards per game. The rationale is that Green Bay is usually winning when Rodgers and Adams are on the field, leading to more positive game scripts. Entering tonight as a seven-point underdogs (check real-time NFL odds here) on the road against the undefeated Cardinals, it’s hard to envision that scenario.
Rodgers is such a talented passer that he can certainly eclipse this total with a makeshift receiving core of Randall Cobb, Robert Tonyan, Marquez Valdes-Scantling and Malik Taylor. I’ll back the future Hall of Fame quarterback — who averages over 300 passing yards without Adams — to beat this total of 257.5.
Zach Ertz Over 30.5 Receiving Yards
Green Bay’s defense has struggled all season, ranking 24th in overall DVOA, per Football Outsiders. The Packers linebacking core has not found success against opposing tight ends, allowing the eighth-most schedule-adjusted fantasy points to the position this season, per 4for4.
Zach Ertz made a big impression in his first game with Arizona, catching a 47-yard touchdown — the longest of his career.
Following the expectation of Rodgers cresting his passing yardage prop, I expect the Cardinals to move the ball effectively against Green Bay. Against a Packers defense that will need to limit the explosive wideout trio of DeAndre Hopkins, Christian Kirk and Rondale Moore, I believe Ertz beats this prop for a second consecutive game with the Cardinals.
We project Ertz right at this number on FantasyLabs, but there is value on this total as most books have this prop set at 31.5 yards.
Kyler Murray Under 25 Completions
Kliff Kingbury’s “Air Raid” offense is a bit misleading. Arizona actually ranks fourth in the NFL in rushing attempts per game (32.1) and is second only to Dallas over the past three weeks (33.7). The Cardinals run an average of 66.3 plays per game, equating to about 33 pass attempts per game.
Kyler Murray has enjoyed a fantastic season, playing at an MVP level. His 73.5% completion percentage is first among all quarterbacks, but only translates to 24.2 completions on their projected passing attempts. In a Thursday Night Football matchup that is usually sloppy, I’ll take the under on this total with Arizona as a touchdown favorite.
We project Murray for 24.7 competitions on Sean Koerner’s Player Prop Tool on FantasyLabs.
