Sean Koerner, our Director of Predictive Analytics, highlights his favorite NFL props at PrizePicks on the Fantasy Flex Podcast each Friday with Chris Raybon.
PrizePicks is a daily fantasy operator — meaning they’re available in more states than sports betting is! — that offers a unique opportunity for action on player props in which you parlay two or more plays together.
Tom Brady Over 314.5 Pass Yards
We have to go beyond our projections on Tom Brady as he makes his return to Foxborough.
There are certain situations like this one, in which a player’s motivation is too high to based decisions only on models. Take Justin Jefferson in Week 17 of last season as an example — the Vikings wide receiver needed 111 receiving yards to set the record for most for a rookie in NFL history. His motivation to set that record is why I bet the over on his 75.5-yard receiving prop. He finished with 133 receiving yards.
Brady’s first game in New England since leaving the Patriots qualifies as a significant enough motivator, but it doesn’t hurt that he’s also only 68 yards away from unseating Drew Brees as the NFL’s all-time passing yards leader.
Give me this over up to 330.5 yards.
Leonard Fournette Under 43.5 Rush Yards
This correlates with the Brady over.
To no one’s surprise, the Bucs have the highest early-down pass rate in the NFL — by a mile. Fournette was out-carried by Ronald Jones last week, which means Weeks 1-2 could end up being the heaviest usage Fournette sees all season as long as Jones is healthy.
I’m projecting Fournette closer to 37.5 rushing yards.
Aaron Jones Over 65.5 Rush Yards
I’m not worried about this matchup for Jones since he typically only needs enough volume to break off a couple of big runs and is already averaging 70% of the RB carry share over the past two games.
The Packers should control this game, making this a run-heavy game script for their offense.
I’m projecting Jones for 74.5 rushing yards.
Calvin Ridley Under 85.5 Rec Yards
The Falcons are more run heavy this season and Ridley has yet to top 65 yards despite averaging 6.7 receptions per game. His average depth of target (aDot) is also down to 8.8 from 14.9 last season.
I’m projecting Ridley for closer to 75.5 receiving yards.
DeVante Parker Under 47.5 Rec Yards
With Will Fuller in the mix now, it’s tougher to project Parker for more than 3-4 receptions. The Dolphins will also likely be run-heavy with Jacoby Brissett under center.
Brissett had a 6.6 aDot last week, which favored shorter passes to rookie WR Jaylen Waddle and TE Mike Gesicki.
I’m projecting Parker closer to 39.5 receiving yards.