Football is officially back! Well, kind of. The preseason does give DFS players a chance to whet their appetites before the main attraction of the regular season.
If you’re new to preseason DFS, there are key differences to remember when setting your rosters. For starters, the rosters are substantially larger. Each team currently has 90 players on their roster, but that number will be trimmed to 53 during the regular season. Most teams use the preseason to try and evaluate their entire roster, so expect nearly every player to see the field.
Volume is everything in the preseason. If the starters are only going to play one or two drives before ceding to the backups, the backups will inherently carry more fantasy value. Talent is simply not that important. Maybe the starters can score a touchdown in their limited playing time, but chasing volume will be a more sustainable strategy in the long term.
Luckily, FantasyLabs now has preseason projections in our NFL Models to help you build your lineups. Additionally, Chris Raybon put together a guide a few years ago with some helpful tips for beating preseason DFS.
Let’s dive into Friday’s four-game slate.
NFL DFS Quarterback Picks
There are eight teams to choose from on Friday, but a few stand out above the rest. We’re targeting volume, so we’re looking for teams with as few quarterbacks as possible. That means we want teams who will be sitting their starter at QB and aren’t carrying four quarterbacks on the roster. The rules out the Browns, Jaguars, Jets, and Eagles, who are all expected to play their starting QBs for at least a drive or two.
The top remaining option is Trace McSorley. The 2019 sixth-rounder out of Penn State was initially drafted by the Ravens, but he was signed off their practice squad by the Cardinals in November of last year. He’ll be using the preseason to try and earn a spot on the Cardinals’ 53-man roster for the upcoming year.
Fortunately, he’s going to get plenty of opportunities. Kyler Murray and Colt McCoy are not expected to suit up this week, and McSorley has already been named the starter against the Bengals.
McSorley brings elite athleticism to the table at the quarterback position, which is ideal in preseason DFS. Passing stats are typically reduced during the preseason, so QBs who can pick up fantasy points with their legs are even more valuable than usual. McSorley ran a 4.57 40-yard dash at the combine, which puts him in the 94th percentile at the position per Player Profiler.
The only other QB on the Cardinals roster is Jarrett Guarantano, an undrafted rookie from Washington State. Both quarterbacks have received praise from head coach Kliff Kingsbury during the preseason, so I expect both to play about a half. However, Guarantano doesn’t bring nearly the same rushing upside to the table – he ran a 4.91 40 at the combine – and he’ll be playing with the guys at the bottom of the depth chart. That means McSorley the easy call between the two.
Quick Hits
- Brandon Allen & Jake Browning, Browns: This is a similar situation to the Cardinals, with Allen expected to tackle the first half and Browning taking over in the second. However, they have another QB who could see some action in Drew Plitt. He’s more likely to cut into Browning’s snaps than Allen’s, making the latter the safer option.
- Jordan Love, Packers: Love will start at least the first two preseason games for the Packers, and possibly all three. The former first-rounder has plenty to prove after an injury limited his reps during the preseason in 2021. Danny Etling is also around to get some snaps, but the Packers need to find out what they have in Love. I expect him to play as much as any backup quarterback during the preseason.
NFL DFS Running Back Picks
At running back, we should be looking to target players at or near the bottom of their team’s depth chart. Only nine players averaged 10 or more carries per game during the preseason in 2021, and the vast majority were players that were basically unknown. Specifically, undrafted free agents tend to get most of the work at the position during the preseason, especially when teams are looking to kill the clock at the end of games.
The Packers have the most appealing backfield situation among Friday’s squads. Their top two starters are well entrenched – Aaron Jones and A.J. Dillon – and both players are expected to sit this week.
After that, Kylin Hill is on the PUP list, while Patrick Taylor recently missed time with an injury. The team added Dexter Williams, but he seems like an extra camp body who will be cut at the first opportunity.
That leaves Tyler Goodson and B.J. Baylor to handle most of the responsibilities on Friday. Both players are undrafted rookies, so they also fit what we’re looking for in the preseason.
Both players should see plenty of work in this contest, but Goodson has the more appealing fantasy profile. He was an outstanding pass-catcher at Iowa, ranking in the 86th percentile at the position in target share. He also stands out athletically, ranking in the 94th percentile in 40-yard dash time and the 95th percentile in Agility Score (per Player Profiler).
Baylor isn’t nearly the same athlete, but he was the more prolific rusher in college. He averaged 5.9 yards per carry and racked up 1,337 rushing yards and 13 touchdowns in his final collegiate season. Ultimately, I view him more as the prototypical preseason grinder.
Quick Hits
- Kennedy Brooks, Eagles: The Eagles depth chart is a bit lighter at RB than most of Friday’s other squads. Miles Sanders is expected to play for a drive or two, but Boston Scott and Kenneth Gainwell have both missed practice recently. Like the Packers, they added a camp body in DeAndre Torrey just one day ago, so I doubt he receives much work so quickly. That leaves Brooks, an undrafted rookie out of Oklahoma, to carry the weight. Nothing about his profile is awe-inspiring, but he averaged 6.3 yards per carry across three productive collegiate seasons. He should be busy on Friday.
- Jordan Mason, 49ers: If last year is any indicator, you want some 49ers exposure at RB. JaMychal Hasty racked up the fourth-most carries during the preseason last year, and his three rushing touchdowns ranked second at the position. Hasty is still around – and he could certainly be a factor again this preseason – but I’d rather roll the dice on Mason. Hasty proved himself last year, while Mason is a UDFA at the bottom of the depth chart.
- Zonovan Knight, Jets: The Jets are another team that is a bit thin at RB. Breece Hall and Michael Carter will depart after the first quarter, while Ty Johnson is currently hurt. That leaves Tevin Coleman, La’Mical Perine, and Knight to split the remaining carries. Knight is the undrafted free agent, so he gets the nod in my eyes.
- Any other undrafted free agent: It really is that simple for me. According to Raybon’s research, most top fantasy scorers at running back are UDFAs. That seems to jive with last year’s results, where Rhamondre Stevenson was the only real known commodity to find success at the position.
NFL DFS Wide Receiver Picks
Like running back, wide receiver is a position where youth tends to dominate in the preseason. Undrafted free agents remain the king, but there are more opportunities for drafted players to make an impact. For example, Tutu Atwell led all players in preseason targets (29) last year, while Terrace Marshall Jr. ranked second in yards.
Also, don’t expect there to be much scoring done through the air during the preseason. Only 14 players caught a touchdown last year, although seven did have multiple scores. That suggests that preseason scoring is a skill, so don’t be afraid to go back to the well with someone if they scored a touchdown in a previous week. That goes double if they’re expected to work with the same quarterback.
I like the Cardinals receiving corps the most on Friday. They currently have 12 guys on the roster at the position, but the top four – Marquise Brown, DeAndre Hopkins, A.J. Green, and Rondale Moore – are not expected to suit up. Additionally, Antoine Wesley is currently nursing a hip injury and has been held out of practice.
That leaves a small group to handle most of the playing time. Andy Isabella and Andre Baccellia have both been getting in plenty of work with McSorley and Guarantano during training camp, so they make the most sense. Isabella is a former second-round pick who has never managed to break through, so this could be a make-or-break preseason for him. He could be on the chopping block if he doesn’t prove his worth.
Baccellia spent most of last year on the practice squad and signed a “futures” contract during the offseason. He ran a 4.28 40-yard dash at his college Pro Day in 2020, so he has legit speed.
If you want to go further down the depth chart, Jontre Kirklin and JaVonta Payton are the UDFAs in the Cardinals’ wide receiver room. Neither player is even listed in the Player Profiler database, so these are deep flyers. That could make them ideal preseason DFS targets, but you’re flying blind if you roster them.
Quick Hits
- Mike Harley Jr., Travell Harris, & Daylen Baldwin, Browns: The Browns have a bunch of receivers who have been banged up during camp, including David Bell, Javon Wims, Anthony Schwartz, Jakeem Grant, and Michael Woods. That could leave them shorthanded at the position in the first preseason contest, leaving their three undrafted rookies to handle plenty of snaps.
- Kendric Pryor, Jack Sorenson, Kwamie Lassiter II, & Javion Heiligh, Bengals: I wish I could narrow it down more for the Bengals, but they have four UDFAs at receiver. Ja’Marr Chase, Tee Higgins, and Tyler Boyd are all expected to sit out this week, so there will be opportunities for the guys at the bottom of the depth chart to get some burn.
- Tay Martin, 49ers: The 49ers depth chart has some guys with NFL experience at the bottom, leaving Martin as the lone UDFA. They also currently have 11 players at the position on their depth chart, which is less than most of the other squads on Friday’s slate.
NFL DFS Tight End Picks
Tight end is easily the weakest position in preseason DFS. That’s not a huge surprise – it’s the weakest position during the regular season as well – but the gap is even wider during exhibition season. According to Cody Main from Establish the Run, tight ends average just 1.6 DraftKings points per game during the preseason. That’s easily the worst mark among the flex positions, with receivers averaging 2.9 and running backs averaging 3.5.
Additionally, the tight end position tends to produce few ceiling games during the preseason. Ignoring the position altogether makes sense for single-game slates, but unfortunately, we’ll have to pick one in the classic format.
One player who stands out to me is Kenny Yeboah. The second-year tight end had eight targets during the preseason last year, which he turned into six catches for 106 yards. More importantly, he found the endzone twice, making him one of the seven players who scored more than once.
Yeboah was also relatively productive in college, ranking in the 66th percentile for Dominator Rating and 85th percentile in yards per catch. Tight end is a major crapshoot, so that’s good enough for me.
Quick Hits
- J.J. Arcega-Whiteside, Eagles: Some players will always be intriguing, and Arcega-Whiteside fits that description for me. He had great collegiate numbers, which resulted in him being a second-round draft pick. He’s attempting to transition to tight end, which could make his athleticism play up a bit.
- Tanner Hudson, 49ers: The 49ers could be thinner than most at tight end. George Kittle may not play in Week 1, while Charlie Woerner was placed on the PUP. Hudson is an undrafted free agent, and while he’s not a rookie, tight end is not a position where that is a huge detriment.
