I don’t know how, but sometime over the past few weeks, we entered an alternate universe. All of a sudden, Russell Wilson is leading the Denver Broncos on multiple last-minute game-winning drives on nationally televised games. Still, if there’s one matchup that can live up to the Broncos’ hype, it’s a rematch of Super Bowl LVII.
Back in February of this year, Patrick Mahomes mounted a Tom Brady-esque comeback, erasing a ten-point halftime deficit and leading his Kansas City Chiefs to victory. It’s a game that will still be on the Philadelphia Eagles’ minds when they invade Arrowhead Stadium on Monday night.
This article will discuss 3-5 of my favorite pick’ems from various DFS sites like Betr, Sleeper Fantasy, PrizePicks, and Underdog Fantasy.
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Eagles-Chiefs NFL Fantasy Pick’ems
Marquez Valdes-Scantling Higher 17.5 Receiving Yards and 1.5 Receptions
Considering the number of All-Pros and potential future Hall of Famers in this game, it might come off as a little disingenuous to lead off with a Marque Valdes-Scantling prop; however, it’s one of our biggest edges on Monday night football.
The Chiefs wide receiver is one of many offensive weapons Mahomes can turn to, albeit one who’s being looked at more frequently. Valdes-Scantling has totaled seven receptions and 134 yards over his last three outings, seeing no fewer than three targets in any game. Increased target share should help him achieve his very reachable receptions and receiving yards props against the Eagles.
Additionally, Philadelphia has been susceptible to the pass this season. The NFC East leaders give up an average of 257.0 passing yards per game, fourth-most in the NFL. It’s not like it’s a contained issue either, as their secondary is getting torched by virtually every route runner. Over the past three weeks, 14 different pass-catchers have accumulated 19 or more receiving yards.
These factors are contributing to a favorable outlook for Valdes-Scantling and the Chiefs’ aerial assault. We’re betting he exceeds 1.5 catches and 17.5 receiving yards on MNF.
A.J. Brown Higher 78.5 Receiving Yards
Almost nobody is doing what A.J. Brown is this season. The Eagles wideout has cemented himself as one of the top pass-catchers in the game, serving as a primary receiving option for Jalen Hurts in the passing attack. KC’s secondary may be sturdier than the Eagles’, but we’ve seen them struggle against big-body receivers in the past.
Anthropometrically, Brown has a comparable profile to Josh Reynolds and Joshua Palmer. All three players stand 6’1″ or higher, tipping the scales around the 200 lbs mark. Moreover, Reynolds and Palmer have had the best showings against the Chiefs’ secondary. In Week 1, Reynolds went caught 4-of-7 passes for 80 yards and a game-long 33-yard reception. Palmer had an even better game, hauling in 5-of-7 for 133 yards and a game-best 60-yard catch-and-run.
Without question, Brown’s skillset is superior to Reynolds’s and Palmer’s. Brown has eclipsed the century mark in receiving yards in six of his previous seven, coming off a diminished 66-yard effort against the Dallas Cowboys last time out. Still, that’s been the exception to an otherwise reliable rule, with the two-time Pro Bowler averaging 10.2 targets per game and a 30.2% target share.
Big wideouts are bullying the Chiefs’ secondary and coming up with some top-end performances. We’re expecting as much from Brown on Monday night as he bounces back from Week 9’s uncharacteristic performance. The Eagles offense runs through Brown, and he should surpass 78.5 receiving yards at Arrowhead Stadium.
Patrick Mahomes Lower 25.5 Rushing Yards
As noted, the Chiefs will be able to take liberties against the Eagles sub-optimal pass defense. That should result in less emphasis on the ground game, leaving Patrick Mahomes to sit back and make throws. Consequently, we’re not expecting him to be a primary weapon in the rushing attack.
We’ve seen a more reserved version of Mahomes over his recent sample. After opening the season with 154 rushing yards through his first four games of the season, Mahomes has totaled 104 over his last five. Across that sample, his yards per game has dropped from 38.5 to 20.8, with the Chiefs QB falling below 25 rushing yards in three of the five contests.
Philadelphia’s defense also deserves a lot of credit for being able to contain the run. The Eagles lead the league in rushing yards per game, allowing a paltry 66.3. Moreover, they’ve effectively hamstrung opposing quarterbacks, holding the last five pivots they’ve faced to a combined 37 yards on 14 carries.
All signs point toward a diminished rushing effort from Mahomes in this one. He’s rushing the ball less these days for fewer yards, and the Eagles defend the run better than anyone else in the league. Again, KC might not even need to run the ball against a beatable Philadelphia pass defense. All of which suggests Mahomes falls below 25.5 rushing yards.