Allen Robinson was one of fantasy football’s biggest disappointments in 2016. He’s cheaper now than he was last year with an average draft position of 50.3 in DRAFT best ball leagues, but fantasy players shouldn’t be looking to buy him at a discount. If there’s one potential bounceback player to fade this year, it’s the Jaguars No. 1 receiver.
He Gets a Lot of Targets . . .
What Robinson has going for him is volume. Since 2014 he’s seventh in the league with 302 targets. Last year he ninth overall in targets (151), 18th in target share (24.1 percent), and 11th in red-zone target share (26.0 percent). He’s a force near the goal line. Robinson has been targeted 41 times and scored an NFL-best 18 touchdowns in the red zone over the last two years.
The problem with Robinson is that last year he didn’t do much with his targets, finishing with 73 receptions, 883 yards, and six touchdowns. He recorded 57 receiving yards or fewer in 10 games, reaching 100 yards just twice and scoring multiple touchdowns just once. That’s a far cry from 2015 when he recorded 1,400 yards and 14 touchdowns.
. . . But He Has Blake Bortles at Quarterback
The biggest obstacle Robinson faced last season was the inconsistent play of quarterback Blake Bortles, especially when it came to the deep ball. In 2015, Robinson was targeted an NFL-high 47 times on passes 20-plus yards downfield. He caught 19 of those targets for 672 yards and three scores. Last season was a completely different story. Bortles completed only one of 24 such passes to Robinson. Bortles’ erratic play and the lack of deep ball production hurt Robinson’s overall efficiency. He finished 93rd in yards per target (5.9) and 97th in catch rate (48.7 percent).
In DraftKings points per game, he dropped from 20.13 in 2015 to 12.83 in 2016 with a -1.77 Plus/Minus and 31.3 percent Consistency Rating (per our Trends tool). What’s worse is that he had a 9.6 percent ownership rate in large-field guaranteed prize pools. This year FantasyLabs users can review ownership trends across GPPs of various buy-in levels with our DFS Ownership Dashboard, which is reason enough to subscribe to FantasyLabs. Monitor our Vegas Dashboard to see how the market views the Jaguars each week. With our DFS Contests Dashboard, you’ll be able to see throughout the season how contrarian lineups with Robinson are. You can use our Correlations Matrix to get a sense of the statistics that might impact his production most, and if you want to pair him with Bortles you can use our Lineup Builder to create stacks. That said, it’s possible that he will continue to be owned at a higher rate than warranted as daily fantasy players look for him to rebound.
That rebound might not come. During the preseason Bortles continued to show poor ball placement even when Robinson was open. If the Jaguars turn to Chad Henne, Robinson’s fantasy value will be tied to a quarterback with a career 59.3 percent completion rate and 58-63 TD-INT ratio.
Robinson vs. Crabtree
One reason to fade Robinson is that Michael Crabtree is available as a pivot play with a 51.7 DRAFT ADP. Last year Crabtree was targeted 145 times (six fewer than Robinson) but caught 89 balls (16 more than Robinson). Crabtree was simply more productive, and they are similar in targets, target share, and red-zone target share. The big difference between them is that Crabtree plays with Derek Carr, who gives him a big advantage when it came to production. Last year Crabtree finished 56th in fantasy points per target (1.64) and 14th in fantasy points per game (14.8); Robinson, 89th (1.32) and 33rd (12.3).
He Will Get Fewer Targets
Much of the enthusiasm surrounding Robinson is based on the assumption his target volume will stay steady. That’s not a safe assumption. Jaguars coach Doug Marrone has stated on many occasions that he wants to run the football, and the selection of running back Leonard Fournette with the fourth pick indicates that Robinson could have fewer targets this year, especially in the red zone. Bortles ranked 13th in both red zone and deep ball attempts last year. Those numbers will likely go down under Marrone and offensive coordinator Nathaniel Hackett as the Jaguars transition to a power-based offense.
We saw the start of that transition last season. After Hackett took over play-calling duties in Week 9, he put a greater emphasis on running the football. The Jaguars improved from 30th (72.6) to fifth (124.8) in rushing yards per game and went from 26th (3.79) to 13th (4.35) in yards per rush under Hackett. When he coordinated the Bills offense in 2013 with the rookie E.J. Manuel at quarterback, the team ranked second in rushing and 28th in passing.
NFL Fantasy Fade: Allen Robinson
In Robinson, we have a talented receiver on an offense likely to be conservative and unstable at quarterback. With a viable alternative in Crabtree available at a comparable ADP, Robinson is a fantasy fade. Until the Jaguars address their weakness under center, Robinson will continue to break the hearts of fantasy players.
