NFL DFS Trenches Report: Finding an Edge for Week 3

Projecting line play — or the line’s impact on fantasy scoring — is one of the more challenging tasks in all of DFS.

While quantitative measures exist, they can be lacking to an extent. On the player level, grading services like Pro Football Focus are notoriously challenged with offensive line play. It’s difficult to know which member of a line blew an assignment on a sack, for example.

Things are a bit easier on the team level, as assessing the unit’s overall success is more practical.

However, we’ll still be taking a glance at qualitative sources. Including Action Network’s Brandon Anderson ranking all 32 NFL offensive lines. On the defensive side, PFF’s defensive line rankings will be the main source.

We also have projected sacks in our NFL Player Models.

The Data

This week I’m again featuring my data table, featuring the combined adjusted line yards and adjusted sack rates for every matchup. It’s still somewhat hard to rely on at this point, as just two matchups leave a lot of questions about whether an offensive unit played well or a pair of defenses played poorly.

This table will get more predictive each week as the sample size grows, but especially starting in Week 5, when the data becomes fully matchup-adjusted at the source. I’ll continue to use the qualitative measures from Anderson and PFF until then. Here’s what Week 3’s matchups look like:

Strong Offensive Line Matchups

Baltimore Ravens OL (#1 in Adjusted Line Yards) vs. Dallas Cowboys DL

Baltimore’s offensive line has thoroughly outperformed preseason expectations, ranking second in adjusted line yards through two games. Some of that is due to matchups, of course, with those games coming against the Colts (18th in PFF’s defensive line rankings) and Saints (28th), but it’s still an encouraging sign.

The Ravens’ Week 3 opponent, Dallas, represents a slight step up based on preseason rankings (13th), but the Cowboys currently rank 28th in adjusted line yards, just ahead of the Saints and Colts. Dallas also ranks 29th in adjusted sack rate, though Baltimore’s line and Lamar Jackson have been less effective at preventing sacks.

Besides, the real appeal here is obviously Derrick Henry ($7,700), who already has four rushing touchdowns this season. He’s historically much better as a favorite thanks to his limited involvement in the passing game, though he has four receptions this season. Regardless, Henry as a favorite against a bad run defense is typically an excellent combination, making him a strong DFS option this week.

Kansas City Chiefs OL (#1 in Adjusted Sack Rate, #3 in Adjusted Line Yards) vs. Miami Dolphins DL

The Dolphins defense in general is terrible this season, and their front is no exception. They rank 25th in adjusted line yards allowed and 31st in adjusted sack rate on the season and have allowed 62 points across two mostly noncompetitive games.

The Chiefs came into the season with a top-10 ranking on Anderson’s list and have lived up to it, ranking fourth in adjusted line yards and ninth in adjusted sack rate. They’ve been firing on all cylinders offensively, with Kenneth Walker ($7,400) running for 290 yards, scoring two touchdowns, and adding nine receptions through two games. Patrick Mahomes ($6,200) has also been in vintage form, with six total touchdowns already.

Walker is the standout here given the likely game script, with the Chiefs as massive favorites. However, we shouldn’t forget about the passing game, either. One build I like for smaller tournaments and/or cash games is pairing the two, thereby getting exposure to the vast majority of the offense’s scoring equity. The ceiling is slightly limited unless Mahomes throws some touchdowns to Walker, but given Walker’s receiving work already this season, that’s entirely possible.

Strong Defensive Line Matchups

Las Vegas Raiders DL (#1 in Adjusted Line Yards) vs. New Orleans Saints OLT

There’s a lot to like about the Saints’ offense this year, which carried them to an upset win over the Ravens and an overtime loss to the Lions, two of the league’s better teams. QB Tyler Shough ($5,400) is a big reason why, leading the league with 652 passing yards this season. However, he’s also been good to opposing D/STs in fantasy, having already taken eight sacks and thrown two interceptions.

That might be more a product of a young QB trying to force the issue in negative game scripts than an offensive line Anderson ranked as middle of the road before the season, but the result is the same. This week, the Saints are slight favorites but draw a tough test in Maxx Crosby and Las Vegas ($2,600).

The Raiders have had a soft schedule to open the season against Cleveland and the Chargers but are tied for the league lead in sacks and rank second in adjusted sack rate. They’ve also forced five turnovers while scoring double-digit DraftKings points in both games.

That level of production is probably a bit optimistic, but given their bargain price, a score somewhere in the 6-8-point range is fine for cash games. They also bring plenty of tournament upside, especially if they can force the Saints to play from behind.

Carolina Panthers DL (#5 in Adjusted Sack Rate) vs. Cleveland Browns OL

I’m sticking with the gimmick of listing a defense facing the Browns each week, but it’s also backed by our projections. As of Wednesday, our leading D/ST in median projections is Carolina ($3,000), which hosts the surprisingly 1-1 Browns.

Cleveland didn’t pull off the upset over the Bucs thanks to its offense. The Browns have allowed seven sacks and given away two turnovers across their first two games. Anderson ranked their offensive line as the worst in the league coming into the year, and they’ve been close to that so far.

The Panthers aren’t an elite defensive unit, but they rank slightly above average in adjusted sack rate (14th) and are also slight favorites. I’m slightly annoyed by their $3,000 salary, though that psychological hurdle could keep ownership down, making them an interesting tournament option.

Picture: Kenneth Walker
Photo Credit: Imagn