Correlations are really important in DFS — so much so, in fact, that we created an NFL Stacking tool that can help you identify the best stacks of the week. Let’s mess around with the Stacking tool and see what DraftKings and FanDuel stacks we can find for Week 4 (via our Bales Player Model).
Note: The following stacks were generated for the 1:00pm Sunday main slate.
QB-WR (DK): Alex Smith-Jeremy Maclin
Several of the Pro Models have Philip Rivers and some combination of Travis Benjamin and Tyrell Williams as the top stack. Don’t worry. We’ll get to them. However, the top DK stack in the Bales Model is currently a low-owned Smith-Maclin combination. The Chiefs have faced two tough defenses after playing the Chargers in Week 1 — a fast-paced game in which Smith threw 48 times and had 32 DK points — and know they get a nice matchup against the Steelers in Week 4. Pittsburgh has allowed DK QBs to score 2.7 points above salary-based expectations in the last year and they’re the best matchup in the entire slate for opposing WRs with a +3.7 Opponent Plus/Minus.
Maclin has failed to meet salary-based expectations in two straight games but it hasn’t been for lack of volume. Even if he doesn’t see anything close to his 15 targets from Week 2, he should get back to the double-digit range in a game that boasts the third-highest Vegas total in the main slate. He has owned a whopping 40.36 percent market share of the Chiefs’ air yards this season. Per our Matchups tool, he is likely to face cornerback Ross Cockrell for many of his snaps, and Cockrell is Pro Football Focus’ 22nd-ranked CB. At such low ownership (seen in the graphic above), this combination is certainly worth a shot in guaranteed prize pools.
QB-TE (FD): Kirk Cousins-Jordan Reed
Cousins has thrown 124 passes in the first three weeks of the 2016 NFL season. This week, he gets a cake matchup against the struggling Cleveland Browns. Washington is currently implied to score 26.75 points, the second-highest total in the main slate. Cousins will certainly be chalky and for good reason. Reed, on the other hand, has disappointed thus far in 2016. Despite seeing a solid amount of targets — he owns a team-high 20.17 percent of Washington’s targets — he hasn’t gotten into the end zone this year. Admittedly, Washington has gotten too cute around the red zone . . .
. . . but that should be corrected in the future: Over the last 16 games, Reed has seen 1.44 red-zone opportunities per contest, the most of any tight end. There is a high probability that Washington will be near the end zone often this weekend, and maybe — just maybe — the team’s freak-talent TE will get involved. Maybe.
RB-D/ST (DK): Cameron Artis-Payne-Carolina D/ST
If you can figure out the Carolina running back situation, good job.
Even on this week’s NFL Flex podcast, the guys engaged in ‘skill game propositions’ about the success of CAP and Fozzy Whittaker. Suffice it to say, there was not unanimity. As you can see in the graphic above, CAP got the majority of the touches last week and I haven’t heard a reason as to why he wouldn’t get them again this week. He has a very nice matchup: The Falcons have allowed RBs to score 2.2 points over expectations in the last year. CAP has a low $3,400 salary and boasts a +4.0 Projected Plus/Minus. The Panthers’ D/ST has the highest DK projection this week and boast the second-highest takeaway rate in the last year at 2.84 percent. At near zero percent ownership, this stack isn’t an awful idea in tournaments.
QB-RB-WR (DK): Philip Rivers-Melvin Gordon-Tyrell Williams
Here we go. The Chargers are currently implied to score a slate-high 28.5 points against the awful Saints defense. Yes, this is the same Saints defense that has allowed QBs to score 8.3 points over expectations in the last year. That mark is almost double that of the Bears, the second-worst team against QBs. Williams has seen 26.62 percent of the Chargers’ air yards this year while Gordon has completely taken over the backfield with Danny Woodhead out for the year:
The Saints defense ranks second-worst in the league through the first three games, per Football Outsiders’ Defense-Adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA). The Chargers will be incredibly chalky and for very good reason.
QB-RB-WR-WR (FD): Drew Brees-Mark Ingram-Brandin Cooks-Michael Thomas
As you can see, this is actually the second-highest rated stack with this combination. However, because we just talked about the Chargers, and because the ratings are close and the Saints stack is actually cheaper, we’ll roll with them.
It’s true: The Saints, and specifically Drew Brees, just aren’t the same away from the Superdome. And that is why you see such large differences in the FantasyLabs ownership projections between these two teams. It might be probable that the first stack will outperform the second stack, but it is certainly not more probable than their respective collective ownership levels suggest. San Diego hasn’t exactly been an amazing defense through the first three weeks: They rank 14th in pass DVOA, 23rd in run DVOA, and 24th overall. Ingram is $800 cheaper than Gordon despite having a similar matchup and seeing almost the exact same amount of volume in Week 3. Again, the first combination is probably optimal. The second combination could perhaps win a tournament.
