We have a rare Week 2 DFS double-header on Monday night football, with the first matchup between the New Orleans Saints and the Carolina Panthers at 7:15 p.m. ET. The Saints are listed as 3-point road favorites, while the total sits at 39.5 points.
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You can also combine them to create your own aggregate projections:
NFL DFS Stud Picks
Chris Olave comes in as the highest-priced player on this showdown slate, and rightfully so. He had an impressive Week 1, catching eight of ten targets for 112 yards en route to 22.2 DraftKings points.
His underlying metrics were also elite, running a route on 84% of the dropbacks, with a 31% target share and 33% air yards share. Also, he saw a 25% first-read target per route run, showing that he was consistently the main option in New Orleans’ offense.
The Panthers ranked 19th in coverage grade against Atlanta, who is a poor passing offense. With Jaycee Horn out with a hamstring injury, it looks like all systems go with Chris Olave.
If Olave looks great, that must bode well for Derek Carr, right? Yes, yes, it does. Carr had a great debut with New Orleans, albeit against a pass-funnel defense in Tennessee. He threw for 305 yards, averaging 9.2 yards per attempt while tossing one touchdown and one interception.
The Panthers allowed the sixth-most fantasy points per pass attempt last week, which is good news for Carr. He looks like a solid option as well.
Shifting to the Carolina side, we have Bryce Young, who had a tough debut. He was inconsistent while also tossing two interceptions. An unideal duo, to say the least.
The underlying metrics are also a little worrisome for Young’s fantasy outlook. Carolina consistently had a negative game script, with a 68% expected pass rate. They only passed on 59% of the time, showing their commitment to keep it on the ground no matter what was going on around them.
Ryan Tannehill had a poor Week 1 against New Orleans, but it makes the New Orleans pass defense look better, giving Carolina all the more reason to run the ball. The Saints’ defense allowed the second-fewest fantasy points per pass attempt, ranking 11th in coverage grade and EPA allowed per dropback while ranking fourth and seventh, respectively, in dropback success percentage and pass rush grade.
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NFL DFS Midrange Picks
Jamaal Williams, Miles Sanders, and Michael Thomas all are priced within $400 of each other and become immediate decision points on this showdown slate.
What stands out to me right away is Thomas, who is my least favorite of the three. It’s an awesome story to see him back on the field, and he ran a route on 92% of the dropbacks, which is promising. However, he’s mostly at the point of his career where he’s a lower aDOT possession receiver who doesn’t have as much big play upside.
He only saw a first-read target on 9% of his routes, showing he’s not a focal point of this offense. His 20% target rate per route run seems good, but it’s a little untrustworthy with that low of a first-read target. I prefer the other two backs and even his own teammate Rashid Shaheed. Shaheed had a 16% first-read target rate and a 24% target rate per route run, which is more reliable.
Shaheed ran a route on 66% of the dropbacks and continued his role as a big play threat. He caught five of six targets for 89 yards and a touchdown while handling two carries. Only Tyreek Hill averaged more yards per route run than Shaheed in 2022. Sign me up for Shaheed.
Back to the running backs, Jamaal Williams looks poised for another big workload as rookie Kendre Miller didn’t practice all week. Williams was inefficient in a horrible matchup, but the workload was promising. He handled 18 carries for 45 yards while catching both of his targets for seven yards.
Atlanta boasts a great rushing attack, but they did carve up Carolina in Week 1 nonetheless. Their RBs combined for 131 yards and two touchdowns on 25 carries, good for 5.2 yards per carry. All respect to Williams, but he isn’t as efficient of a runner as Tyler Allgeier or Bijan Robinson. However, Williams is the lead man in a backfield devoid of bodies in a plus matchup as a favorite.
Sanders had a strong role in Week 1, playing on 57.1% of the snaps and handling 66.7% of the running back touches. His final stat line was 18 carries for 72 yards while catching four of six targets for 26 yards.
The Saints just allowed 147 yards on 21 touches to Tennessee backs, so Sanders looks like a solid bet tonight.
Adam Thielen headlines an absolutely disgusting (sorry) wide receiver room in Carolina. Despite having the highest price and most name recognition of the receivers, his Week 1 role was one to forget. He ran a route on 90% of the dropbacks but saw just two targets, catching both for 12 yards. If fading Adam Thielen burns me in 2023, then fine.
DJ Chark Jr. missed Week 1’s matchup with a hamstring injury but is currently expected to suit up after a full practice on Saturday. His status is still worth monitoring, but I’m tentatively expecting him to suit up. He’ll likely take Terrace Marshall Jr.‘s role, who ran a route on 95% of the dropbacks last week. Marshall saw six targets, catching two for 23 yards. Chark is a solid option, and I far prefer him to Thielen, as he’ll likely have lower ownership.
Hayden Hurst‘s outlook is slightly diminished by Frank Reich’s need to rotate tight ends. However, Hurst still ran a route on 64% of the dropbacks, seeing seven targets and catching five balls for 41 yards and a touchdown. He saw a first-read target on just 11% of his routes, which I wish was a little higher. However, it’s likely Young continues to lean on his tight end. Hurst is squarely on my radar and likely my favorite option of these mid-tier Panthers receivers.
Juwan Johnson caught three of five targets for 36 yards last week while running a route on a promising 81.6% of the team dropbacks and seeing a 16.1% target rate per route run. Johnson also has been utilized as a red zone threat before, giving him some touchdown equity which makes him stand out.
Chuba Hubbard rotated with Miles Sanders and is likely too expensive for his role. He did have 11 total touches, which is good to see, parlaying nine carries and two catches into 69 scrimmage yards. I’m likely going to look elsewhere, but there are worse ways to go tonight than Hubbard.
My Taysom Hill stance remains consistent as long as injuries aren’t thrusting him into some type of actual starting role. I’m not going to play him, and if he finds the end zone twice, then I’ll move on to the next slate. He had one target last week and three carries.
NFL DFS Value & Punt Picks
- Defenses & Kickers: These options are always in play in the single-game format, but make sure to correlate the rest of your lineup around them. Given the expected low-scoring nature, these options may be more appealing than usual. Especially with the Panthers boasting a rookie quarterback.
- Kendre Miller ($3,000 on DraftKings, $6,500 on FanDuel): I’m not expecting Miller to suit up, but if he does, he’s an interesting large field flier. We know what Jamaal Williams is at this point, and explosiveness isn’t his strong suit. Miller wouldn’t be a small field or single-entry option, but potentially worth a flier in larger fields.
- Jonathan Mingo ($2,400 on DraftKings, $7,000 on FanDuel): On an overall uninspiring showdown slate, Jonathan Mingo looks like one of my favorite options. The return of DJ Chark is somewhat worrisome, but I’m expecting Mingo to keep his role and Marshall to bump to the bench. Mingo ran a route on 93% of the dropbacks last week, seeing a 17% target share and 36% air yards share. He also had a 15% first-read target rate, which is very promising. Sign me up for Mingo at this very cheap price.
- Terrace Marshall Jr. ($1,400 on DraftKings, $7,500 on FanDuel): If Chark were to miss, then Marshall quickly becomes a solid value option. I’d still prefer Mingo to him, but he’s an every-down receiver at $1,400. There are far worse places to go.
- Laviska Shenault Jr. ($1,000 on DraftKings, $7,000 on FanDuel): Shenault is mostly a gadget player, as he caught both of his targets for 16 yards last week and handled two carries for five yards. With Mingo and potentially Marshall looking like great values, it’s probably unnecessary to go here.
