NFL DFS Showdown Picks Breakdown (January 13) for Vikings vs. Rams

The first round of the NFL postseason wraps up on Monday night. The Minnesota Vikings and Los Angeles Rams will square off in Arizona in what should be one of the best contests of the week. The Vikings are currently listed as 2.5-point favorites, while the total sits at 47.5.

These two squads have already met once this season, with the Rams securing a 30-20 victory at home in Week 8. This game was also slated to be played in Los Angeles, but the wildfires forced the league to relocate it to a neutral field.

Let’s dive into all the DFS options for Monday Night Football.

You can check out our in-depth SimLabs guide here.

Finally, make sure to check out all the projections available for purchase (Chris Raybon’s come included with a FantasyLabs subscription) within the FantasyLabs Models. Subscribers now have the option to purchase Derek Carty’s THE BLITZ from our Marketplace. Projections from One Week Season and Establish the Run are available if you’re a subscriber to those specific sites (our optimizer is a separate add-on feature).

You can also combine them to create your own aggregate DFS projections:

NFL DFS Stud Picks

Justin Jefferson remains one of the league’s biggest superstars at receiver. He didn’t have his best statistical season – he averaged more than 15 fewer yards per game than in each of his past two campaigns – but he still racked up 103 catches, 1,533 yards, and 10 touchdowns. It was enough to make him the third-best receiver on a per-game basis in PPR formats and secure a First-Team All-Pro selection.

Unsurprisingly, Jefferson remains the clear focal point of the Vikings’ passing attack. He’s garnered 30% of the team’s targets and 39% of their air yards, which resulted in a No. 4 finish in Weight Opportunity Rating (WOPR).

Jefferson was also remarkably consistent from a target standpoint. He had at least eight looks in all but four games this season, and he had seven in two of the exceptions. However, he also had double-digit targets in just four outings.

Jefferson is one of the most efficient receivers in football, so he doesn’t necessarily need 10+ targets to do a ton of damage. Look no further than his previous matchup vs. the Rams. He had nine targets vs. the Rams secondary, which he converted into eight grabs for 115 yards.

From a matchup standpoint, the Rams are middle of the pack. They did show some slight improvement over the second half of the season, but they’re still merely 28th in pass defense EPA for the year.

As good as Jefferson is, Puka Nacua might be the stronger stud receiver option on this slate. He returned to the Rams’ lineup on a full-time basis in Week 10, and he played in every game before resting in the final week of the season. Over that stretch, he was among the biggest alphas in all of football. He racked up an elite 39% target share, and he handled 37% of the team’s air yards. He finished as a top-18 receiver in PPR formats in six of those eight weeks, including four top-10 finishes.

Ultimately, Nacua saw at least eight targets in each of his final eight outings, and he averaged 11.4 targets per game over that stretch. He also averaged 8.4 receptions and 104.8 receiving yards per game, and he added three scores.

Nacua did that despite a relatively pedestrian 87% route participation. He got to 100% in his final game of the regular season, and he’ll likely be on the field for nearly every snap on Monday night.

Ultimately, Nacua was one of the two receivers who averaged more PPR points per game than Jefferson during the regular season. He’s available at a slight discount compared to the Vikings’ superstar on Monday, but I’m not sure that’s warranted. The Vikings are a tough defensive team, but the Rams had no problem dicing them up in their first meeting. They were also a bit exposed by the Lions in Week 18, so they might not be as formidable as they look on paper. Nacua tops all non-quarterbacks in terms of ceiling projection, and he leads the entire slate in projected DraftKings Plus/Minus.

Kyren Williams is the final stud target in this contest, and it’s easy to get excited about his prospects. Like Nacua, he’s going to have to navigate a tough matchup – Minnesota is No. 1 rush defense EPA – but they’ve taken a massive step back recently. They’ve allowed at least 100 rushing yards in five of their past six games, culminating in 176 yards vs. the Lions in the final game of the regular season. The Rams are a quality rushing offense, so they could keep that trend going.

The vast majority of that production is going to come from Williams. He’s been the Rams’ clear feature back all season, racking up an 87% snap share and 75% carry share before resting in Week 18.

If anything, he’s going to see an even larger role during the playoffs. Blake Corum was recently placed on IR, and Corum has been Williams’ only real competition for touches this season. It wouldn’t be a huge shock to see 90+% of the snaps for Williams on Monday night.

The only real concern with Williams is building your lineup around him. He doesn’t correlate particularly well with any of his teammates. He and Nakua have a neutral correlation (+0.09), but he has a negative correlation with most of the other players on the roster.

NFL DFS Midrange Picks

Sam Darnold has completely changed the narrative about his career this season. After flaming out with the Jets and Panthers and spending a year as the 49ers’ backup QB, Darnold has finally broken out with the Vikings. He wasn’t even guaranteed to be the team’s starting quarterback this season, but an injury to J.J. McCarthy won him the job by default. Darnold has not looked back, racking up 4,319 passing yards and 35 touchdowns, good for a QB9 finish in terms of fantasy points per game.

However, that’s not to say that it’s been completely smooth sailing. Darnold has still had some concerning performances, none more so than last week vs. the Lions. He completed just 18 of 41 passes for 166 yards despite the Lions being extremely shorthanded on defense. They had surrendered some huge performances in recent weeks, so the fact that Darnold was so poor against them is a bit of a red flag. This will also be the first playoff start of his career, so things aren’t going to get much easier.

The good news is that the matchup stands out as favorable. He owns a +3.6 Opponent Plus/Minus, which is the top mark on the slate. Darnold has also done some of his best work recently as a favorite, scoring at least 19.6 DraftKings points in five of his past six opportunities (per the Trends tool).

Ultimately, Darnold grades out extremely well in our NFL Models. He owns the top ceiling projection on the slate, and he trails only Nacua in terms of projected Plus/Minus.

Matthew Stafford is the other quarterback to consider, and experience certainly isn’t an issue for him. He’s already won one Super Bowl, and he’ll be trying to solidify his Hall-of-Fame legacy with one more this season.

However, Stafford hasn’t had the same statistical success this season. He averaged just 235.1 passing yards per game, which was nearly 30 fewer yards than last year. He also had just 20 passing touchdowns, and he brings nothing to the table with his legs. The result is mediocre fantasy numbers, including single-digit fantasy points in his final three starts of the year.

His projections aren’t nearly as rosy as Darnold’s, so the Vikings’ QB is the clear preferred option. The best way to use Stafford is as a stacking partner with his pass-catchers; otherwise, he doesn’t stand out as a particularly appealing target.

Cooper Kupp is the Rams’ other stud receiver, and it wasn’t all that long ago that he was considered one of the best receivers in football. That said, times have changed. He’s the clear No. 2 target behind Nacua in this passing attack. Since Week 10, Kupp has posted a 22% target share and 26% air yards share. Those are not the type of numbers you’d expect to see from a $9,400 receiver.

Things have been particularly poor for Kupp of late. He’s gone for 5.4 DraftKings points or fewer in four of his past five outings, including a game where he failed to catch a single pass. He’s also had three targets or fewer in three straight games, making him extremely tough to trust at his current salary.

If you are interested in Kupp, you’re better off targeting him on FanDuel. His $11,000 salary on that site is a bit more reasonable, and it results in a slate-high 90% Bargain Rating. Given his track record, betting on some positive regression isn’t the worst idea at a lower salary than usual.

Aaron Jones was acquired by the Vikings this offseason to provide production in the backfield, and he’s basically done just that. He’s not the same player that he was in his prime, but he’s still averaged a respectable 4.5 yards per attempt.

He hasn’t been a true bell-cow for most of the season, but that could potentially change during the playoffs. He has a three-down skill set, so it’s possible the team leans on him a bit more than usual in a must-win situation.

Jordan Addison is the Vikings’ No. 2 receiver, but that’s mainly due to the presence of Jefferson. From a clear talent standpoint, he could easily be the best receiver on a handful of teams.

Addison is coming off a poor showing in his last outing, but it was tough for any of the pass-catchers to succeed with how poorly Darnold played. He still has a respectable 21% target share for the year, and he’s also seen a 30% air yards share. His average depth of target (aDOT) is two yards further downfield than Jefferson’s, so he’s the team’s “big play” threat at the position.

His salary has also come down significantly across the industry. He peaked at more than $9k on DraftKings a few weeks ago, but he’s just $7,000 vs. the Rams. That gives him some buy-low appeal.

Finally, T.J. Hockenson has been a steady presence for the Vikings at tight end since returning from injury. His route participation has also crept up a bit of late, posting back-to-back weeks with an 84% mark. He also had eight targets last week vs. the Lions, so he’s another interesting buy-low target in this price range.

NFL DFS Value & Punt Picks

• Defenses & Kickers – These options are always in play for the single-game format. The Rams Defense stands out as the most undervalued of the group, with their projected ownership checking in approximately 2.5% below their optimal lineup rate in Sim Labs.
• Cam Akers ($4,400 DraftKings, $7,500 FanDuel) – Akers is currently questionable with an illness, but he’s expected to be able to take the field vs. his old team. He’s seen a decent handful of carries for the Vikings of late, racking up at least 22% of the opportunities in five of his past six games.
• Demarcus Robinson ($4,200 DraftKings, $8,000 FanDuel) – Robinson has had some value at times this season, and he’s on the field for a decent chunk of snaps. However, there just isn’t much left to go around with Nacua, Kupp, and Williams taking most of the opportunities. He has just an 11% target share for the year, and he’s been at 6% or lower in four straight games with Kupp and Nacua in the lineup.
• Jalen Nailor ($3,600 DraftKings, $8,000 FanDuel) – Nailor is the better target if you’re looking for a WR3 in this contest. He’s had double-digit target shares in back-to-back games, and he’s been targeted on a respectable 17% of his routes run this season.
• Tutu Atwell ($3,400 DraftKings, $7,500 FanDuel) – Atwell is a burner, possessing the speed to return value in one touch. That said, he hasn’t done that often this season. In his last game with the Rams at full strength, he had just a 12% route participation and failed to earn a single target.
• Tyler Higbee ($3,000 DraftKings, $8,500 FanDuel) – Higbee is an intriguing value option vs. the Vikings. He’s played limited snaps since his return to the lineup, but he’s been targeted on 31% of his routes run. If his route participation increases in the postseason, he could provide some production at a pretty cheap salary.
• Ronnie Rivers ($2,000 DraftKings, $7,000 FanDuel) – With Corum out of the lineup, Rivers should serve as the Rams’ backup RB. Still, I wouldn’t expect to see very much of him.
• Josh Oliver ($1,600 DraftKings, $7,000 FanDuel) – Oliver served as the Vikings top TE while Hockenson was recovering from an injury, but his role has dwindled in recent weeks. Still, he’s on the field for roughly a quarter of the plays, and tight ends are always a threat around the goal line.