The NFL wraps up one of the biggest weeks of the season with a bit of a disappointing Monday Night Football showdown. The New York Giants will head to Foxborough to take on the New England Patriots, with the Patriots listed as 7.5-point home favorites. The total for this contest sits at 46.5 points.
New England has had a phenomenal season. They’ve breezed through a pretty easy schedule, but their 10-2 record puts them tied with the Broncos atop the AFC standings. They’ll have a chance to regain a half-game lead with a win over the Giants before heading into their Week 14 bye.
The Giants are sitting at just 2-10, but they’ve played far better than their record suggests. They’ve been competitive most weeks, and their expected record based on point differential is a much more respectable 4.4-7.6. They’ve lost three straight one-score games to good NFC North opponents, including taking the Lions to overtime in Week 11. Their schedule has been an absolute gauntlet, and unfortunately, things don’t get any easier any time soon.
Let’s dive into all the top DFS options for Monday Night Football.
NFL DFS Stud Picks
Drake Maye has been the big reason for the Patriots’ ascent to the top of the AFC Standings. He’s arrived as a franchise-caliber quarterback, and he’s firmly in discussion for the MVP. In fact, after Matthew Stafford’s disappointing performance Sunday vs. the Panthers, Maye could be the favorite with another good showing vs. the Giants. Maye leads the league with a 71% completion percentage and an average of 9.24 adjusted yards per attempt, and he’s racked up 21 touchdown passes to just six interceptions.
For fantasy purposes, Maye has moved into the top tier at the QB position. Among QBs with at least three starts this season, Maye ranks fifth in points per game. He’s posted a positive Plus/Minus in nine of 12 outings, and he’s scored more than 21 DraftKings points in six of them. Maye combines his efficient passing with just enough rushing upside, averaging 25.6 yards per game with two additional touchdowns.
However, Maye has faced some adversity of late. Two of his worst games of the season have been his past two. He underwhelmed with 16.96 DraftKings points against a porous Bengals’ defense, and he had just 15.44 DraftKings points vs. the Jets the week prior. Neither of those was truly disastrous, but they weren’t enough to pay off his massive price tag.
The good news is that the Giants are another strong matchup for Maye to potentially bounce back. They’re merely 25th in pass defense EPA, and they’ve allowed the third-most fantasy points per game to opposing quarterbacks. The result is a slate-best +4.6 Opponent Plus/Minus.
Maye ultimately has the top projections in our NFL Models, leading the way in median and ceiling. He should be the highest-owned player on the slate.
Jaxson Dart is the other QB in this contest, and he’ll make his return after missing the past two games with a concussion. He has quickly ascended the fantasy ranks as a rookie, delivering some massive production as the Giants’ starting QB. He’s averaged more than 23 fantasy points per game in his seven starts, and he was No. 3 at the position in points per game over that time frame. Dart has posted a positive Plus/Minus in each start, and he’s scored more than 27 DraftKings points in three of his past four.
Dart doesn’t have the same passing prowess as Maye, but he makes up for it with some of the best rushing production in the league. He’s scored seven rushing touchdowns in his seven starts, and he’s handled 36% of the team’s carries from inside the five-yard line during that span. He’s also averaged 7.9 carries and 45.3 yards per game, so he’s contributing 10+ fantasy points before factoring in anything he does with his arm.
The big X-factor is whether or not Dart will be as aggressive as a runner following his concussion. There has been a lot of talk in the media about how Dart needs to protect himself better and that if he can’t do it, then the Giants need to do it for him. That could result in fewer designed rush attempts in a game that doesn’t mean much for the team.
Still, a tiger can’t change its stripes. Dart is going to be on the field, and running is a big part of his game. His legs are what make him special, so expect him to use them.
That gives him a strong ceiling at his price point. It wouldn’t be a huge shock to see him outscore Maye, despite checking in at a significantly cheaper price tag.
NFL DFS Midrange Picks
Wan’Dale Robinson has quietly had one of the best workloads in fantasy at the receiver position. After Malik Nabers went down with a season-ending injury, Robinson has racked up a massive 30% target share. His targets don’t typically come downfield – he has an 8.4-yard Average Depth of Target (aDOT) from Week 4 on – but he’s a threat to rack up double-digit opportunities every single week.
Robinson is coming off his best game of the season in Week 12, finishing with 14 targets, nine catches, 156 yards, and a touchdown. He ultimately finished with 33.6 DraftKings points, making him the fourth-highest-scoring receiver of the week.
Of course, that game came with Jameis Winston at quarterback. Winston is known for aggressively pushing the ball downfield, and Robinson’s aDOT in that contest was a clear outlier at 14.2 yards. He won’t have as many chances for big plays with Dart back under center. It makes him more of a floor play than a ceiling play, especially with his price tag jumping up to $9,000.
Stefon Diggs is the Patriots’ top receiver, and his workload has been a bit more volatile. On some weeks, it feels like Diggs gets the ball every time he’s on the field. He has four games with a target share of at least 30%, including two games of 40+.
In other weeks, Diggs seems like more of a decoy. That was the case in Week 12, with Diggs running a route on just 54% of the team’s dropbacks and posting a 10% target share. He saw just three total targets, and he finished with just two catches for 20 yards.
That makes Diggs a major wild card at his current price tag. He doesn’t possess the consistent workload you expect for a receiver in this price range, but he always has the potential to go off.
Ironically, the best way to use Diggs might be in lineups without his QB. He and Maye have an awful -0.57 correlation this season, and using one without the other could increase the uniqueness of your lineups. Diggs also stands out as an interesting contrarian Captain in Sim Labs: No one has a greater disparity between optimal rate and projected ownership.
The Patriots have employed a committee backfield for most of the season, with TreVeyon Henderson and Rhamondre Stevenson splitting the opportunities. Stevenson had the clear edge at the position until he suffered an injury and was forced to miss three straight games. Henderson took over as the team’s starter and posted excellent numbers, so he now appears to be their top option.
Stevenson returned to the lineup last week, but Henderson still handled 64% of the snaps and 67% of the carries. He also posted a target share of at least 13% for the third time in his past four games. He ultimately finished with just 81 scoreless yards, but his workload gives him plenty of promise moving forward.
Stevenson’s numbers were less remarkable, but he was a presence in two key areas: around the goal line and passing situations. He had 40% of the team’s carries from inside the five-yard line, while he played on 88% of the long-down-and-distance snaps. That means he could still offer some value for fantasy purposes, even if Henderson gets the majority of the opportunities.
Ultimately, both players have the chance to post big numbers vs. the Giants. Their run defense has been an abomination this season, ranking dead last in rush defense EPA. They’ve allowed the second-most PPR points per game to the position, and they’ve allowed a mouthwatering 185.5 rushing yards per game over their past six outings. Henderson stands out as one of the strongest options on the slate – he leads all players in projected Plus/Minus – while Stevenson could be a unique contrarian target.
With Cam Skattebo going down for the Giants, Tyrone Tracy has reassumed his spot atop the team’s RB depth chart. He’s tallied at least 19 carries in back-to-back contests, and he’s seen four targets in each as well. Unsurprisingly, he’s responded with a positive Plus/Minus in both outings.
That said, the underlying metrics for Tracy aren’t quite as inspiring. His carry share sits at 53% over the past two weeks, so he has been far from a bell-cow back. His targets were also likely increased by Dart being sidelined: Winston was much more likely to check it down instead of tucking and running.
Tracy had 8.1 DraftKings points or fewer in his three starts alongside Dart, so some regression could be looming. That feels particularly true as a 7.5-point underdog against a Patriots’ defense that has stifled the run for most of the year.
Part of the reason why Diggs saw a big downtick in routes last week was the return of Kayshon Boutte. He’s been the Patriots’ No. 1 option from a snaps standpoint this season, and he stepped right back into that role vs. the Bengals (85% route participation).
Unfortunately, Boutte has struggled to consistently earn targets. He has just a 12% target share for the year, and he’s been in single digits in three of his past four games. He’s made up for it by scoring touchdowns at a high rate, but that doesn’t feel particularly sustainable. That makes him a high-risk option.
Hunter Henry and Mack Hollins round out the Patriots’ passing attack. Henry is coming off a monster game against the Bengals, finishing with seven catches, 115 yards, and a touchdown. However, the Bengals have a historically bad defense at defending tight ends, while the Giants have been somewhat decent in that department. Henry’s price tag is up nearly $2,000 compared to last week, but he’s posted a positive Plus/Minus in just two games all year. He’s a pretty clear sell-high option.
Hollins is more appealing. He managed to maintain a solid role in the offense despite Boutte’s return, posting a 79% route participation and 16% target share vs. the Bengals. Nothing that he does is particularly flashy, but he’s an excellent blocker, which helps keep him on the field for most of the game. He stands out as the Patriots’ top target at pass-catcher in terms of projected Plus/Minus.
Darius Slayton and Theo Johnson represent the Giants’ top supplementary pass-catchers. Slayton is the team’s top big-play threat at the position, posting a 14.6 aDOT for the year. He connected with Dart for a big play in each of the young QBs’ last two starts, though Slayton has seen a downtick in opportunities of late. He’s had a route participation of 64% or lower in back-to-back games, and he had just a 6% target share with Winston last week.
Johnson has been a much more consistent part of the offense, especially with Dart under center. In Dart’s seven starts, Johnson has posted a very healthy 21% target share. He’s posted a positive Plus/Minus in five of them, and he’s managed to get into the paint five times. That makes him a viable target across the industry, but his $5,800 salary on FanDuel is particularly appealing.
NFL DFS Value & Punt Picks
- Defenses & Kickers – These options are always in play in the single-game format. Believe it or not, the Giants Defense actually has the best projected Plus/Minus of this group, and they’re also projected for the least amount of ownership.
- Devin Singletary ($4,600 DraftKings, $8,200 FanDuel) – Singletary is massively overpriced on FanDuel, but he has some appeal at $4,600 on DraftKings. He’s handled at least 30% of the team’s carries in four straight games, and he’s had 100% of the short-yardage opportunities in three straight.
- DeMario Douglas ($4,000 DraftKings, $4,600 FanDuel) – Douglas hasn’t seen nearly as many snaps for the Patriots this season, but he’s still had a bit of an impact. He’s been targeted on more than 20% of his routes run, and he’s scored at least 5.7 DraftKings points in six of his past seven games. That includes two “ceiling” games of 16.1 and 23.0.
- Isaiah Hodgins ($3,600 DraftKings, $4,000 FanDuel) – Hodgins has emerged as the Giants’ clear No. 2 receiver in recent weeks. He had an 81% route participation in Week 11, and he maintained a 74% mark last week despite Slayton’s return. He has a 17% target share over those contests, so it will be interesting to see if he can do the same with Dart. He’s one of the best values on the slate.
- Austin Hooper ($3,400 DraftKings, $2,800 FanDuel) – Hooper is the Patriots’ No. 2 TE, and he’s coming off four targets last week vs. the Bengals. He hasn’t been that involved most weeks, but he’s always a threat for a cheap touchdown.
- Daniel Bellinger ($1,600 DraftKings, $1,800 FanDuel) – Bellinger has a similar role to Hooper, albeit for a much less productive offense. He’s been a non-factor for most of the year, but he did pop off for 17.8 DraftKings points in Week 7 vs. the Broncos.
Pictured: Jaxson Dart
Photo Credit: Imagn
