Football is officially back! Well, kind of. The preseason does give DFS players a chance to whet their appetites before the main attraction of the regular season.
If you’re new to preseason DFS, there are key differences to remember when setting your rosters. For starters, the rosters are substantially larger. Each team currently has 80 players on their roster, but that number will be trimmed to 53 during the regular season. Most teams use the preseason to try and evaluate their entire roster, so expect nearly every player to see the field.
Volume is everything in the preseason. If the starters are only going to play one or two drives before ceding to the backups, the backups will inherently carry more fantasy value. Talent is simply not that important. Maybe the starters can score a touchdown in their limited playing time, but chasing volume will be a more sustainable strategy in the long term.
Luckily, FantasyLabs now has preseason projections in our NFL Models to help you build your lineups. Additionally, Chris Raybon put together a guide a few years ago with some helpful tips for beating preseason DFS.
Let’s dive into Saturday’s six-game main slate.
NFL DFS Quarterback Picks
We have a general idea of how most teams are looking to approach their final preseason contest. The Eagles have announced that their starters are not expected to play much, if it all, against the Dolphins.
That’s good news for Gardner Minshew. He should draw the start and play the majority of the game if Jalen Hurts is inactive.
Minshew has had some success at the NFL level, and he’s unsurprisingly thrived against backups during the preseason. He was 14-17 for 142 yards in the Eagles’ last contest, and he brings a smidge of upside with his legs.
Minshew was arguably the Eagles’ best quarterback last year. He had better marks than Hurts in touchdown rate, interception rate, and adjusted yards per attempt. Overall, Minshew has averaged 7.3 adjusted yards per attempt for his career, which is a solid mark.
The only concern is that Minshew might be too valuable for the Eagles to risk in their final preseason contest. I’d still expect him to play at least a half, which is enough to make him viable.
Quick Hits
- Justin Fields, Bears: The Bears are going to play their starters for the first half on Saturday, including Fields. That’s obviously an appealing proposition. Fields hasn’t lived up to expectations as a first-round pick, but he’s still oozing with talent. He’s one of the best athletes in the league at the position, giving him plenty of upside with his legs.
- Trace McSorley, Cardinals: We’re not sure yet if the Cardinals plan to play their starters on Saturday. Kyler Murray has yet to suit up during the preseason, so Kliff Kingsbury may want to get him a couple of series. Still, McSorley should see the bulk of the playing time, and he’s been a superstar during the preseason. No one has averaged more passing yards per game, and he’s done damage with his legs as well. McSorley blazed a 4.57 40-yard dash at the combine, so running is definitely a part of his game.
- Brett Rypien & Josh Johnson, Broncos: Rypien will get the first half for the Broncos this week, while Johnson will get the second. Rypien is reportedly pushing Johnson for the backup QB job, so the stakes are high for both players. Expect the coaching staff to give both guys opportunities to make plays.
NFL DFS Running Back Picks
The Browns are another team that will reportedly play their starters “between two series and a half” in their final preseason game. However, I’d expect both Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt to play very minimally. Both players are too important to risk during the preseason.
That should leave John Kelly to handle most of the responsibilities at running back. The sixth-round pick in 2018 has been among the busiest runners in the league during the preseason, averaging 12.0 carries per game. He hasn’t been all that productive, averaging 3.6 yards per carry, but he has scored a touchdown.
Kelly is a subpar athlete by NFL standards, but he was productive in college. He posted an 86th-percentile Dominator Rating and a 95th-percentile Target Share at Tennessee (per Player Profiler).
Ultimately, it’s hard to beat the kind of volume upside that he brings to the table.
Quick Hits
- Julius Chestnut, Titans: Seeing “J. Chestnut” will never not make me think of Joey Chestnut – aka the hot dog king of America – but Julius has been doing his thing during the preseason. He’s averaged 8.5 carries per game, which is the ninth-best mark in the league. He’s also averaged a respectable 4.6 yards per carry, so he’s been getting the job done.
- Jaret Patterson, Commanders: The Guardians starters will reportedly play “very limited snaps” on Saturday, so expect to see plenty of Patterson. He was an absolute workhorse in college, posting a 95th-percentile Dominator Rating at Buffalo while averaging 6.7 yards per carry.
- Tyler Badie, Ravens: Badie has been another busy player during the preseason, racking up 20 total carries through the Ravens’ first two games. With J.K. Dobbins and Gus Edwards both on the mend, Baddie should continue to tote the rock in Week 3.
- JaQuan Hardy & Mike Boone, Broncos: The Broncos regulars are unlikely to play this week, including Javonte Williams and Melvin Gordon III. That leaves Boone and Hardy to handle most of the RB opportunities vs. the Broncos.
NFL DFS Wide Receiver Picks
The Cardinals have been very cautious with their starters during the preseason. In addition to Murray, Marquise Brown, DeAndre Hopkins, A.J. Green, and Rondale Moore have yet to suit up.
That’s allowed Andy Isabella and Greg Dortch to put their talent on display. Isabella has racked up 112 snaps through the first two weeks, which I’d imagine is one of the highest marks in the league. Dortch has played 90 snaps, so both players have been incredibly busy.
Both players have also been productive. They’ve racked up 15 targets a piece, which is tied for the sixth-highest mark during the preseason. Isabella has responded with nine grabs for 111 yards, while Dortch has eight catches for 100.
Isabella was an extremely interesting prospect in the 2019 Draft. He was unstoppable at a small school in Massachusetts, ranking in the 97th percentile in Dominator Rating and the 100th percentile in target market share. He also blazed a 4.31 40-yard dash at the combine, so he clearly has the speed to succeed in the NFL. Still, he’s yet to put things together during the regular season, so it’s nice to see him having success in the exhibitions.
Dortch went undrafted in 2019, and he fits a similar profile as Isabella. He’s not nearly as fast – he ran a 4.54 40-yard dash at his pro day – but he racked up targets at a small school.
Isabella’s speed makes him the bigger threat for a big play, but both guys are viable targets on Saturday.
Quick Hits
- Darnell Mooney, Bears: When Mooney is on the field this season, he figures to be one of the most frequently targeted players in the league. His target share could be even more inflated on Saturday with Byron Pringle, Velus Jones, N’Keal Harry, and Tajae Sharpe all sidelined with injuries.
- Deon Cain, Eagles: Cain has been the Eagles’ most productive receiver during the preseason. He’s seen at least 40 snaps in both games, and he racked up five catches for 66 yards last week.
- Dyami Brown, Guardians: Brown had a lost season as a rookie in 2021-22, but he remains a decent prospect. He averaged more than 20 yards per reception in college, and the Guardians liked him enough to take him in the third round. He remains on the fringes of their receiver rotation, so he should continue to get opportunities to prove himself in the preseason.
NFL DFS Tight End Picks
Tight end is supposed to be a dumpster fire during the preseason, but don’t tell that to Isaiah Likely. The rookie has made a name for himself, racking up 12 catches for 144 yards and a touchdown through the first two weeks. He’s played so well that he will reportedly be a part of the Ravens’ offense during the regular season as well.
Catching the football is nothing new for Likely. He broke out at 18.4 years old at Coastal Carolina, and he racked up a 91st-percentile Dominator Rating. He’s far from an explosive athlete, but he makes up for it with his size.
The most impressive part is that Likely hasn’t even played that much during the preseason. He’s racked up just 42 snaps, so he has been heavily targeted when on the field.
Quick Hits
- Noah Togiai, Eagles: The Eagles have been thin at tight end during the preseason, which has allowed Togiai to see plenty of playing time. He’s racked up 79 snaps through the first two weeks, which he’s turned into six catches for 38 yards.
- Curtis Hodges, Commanders: The Commanders are even thinner than the Eagles at tight end, and they recently had to sign two camp bodies just to give them so depth. Hodges didn’t play last week, but he racked up 49 snaps and 29 routes in Week 1.
- Albert Okwuegbunam, Broncos: Okwuegbunam was expected to serve as the Broncos’ starting tight end this season, but he has played mostly with the reserves during the preseason. However, he remains an athletic marvel at the position. He ranks in the 98th percentile in 40-yard dash time and the 100th percentile in Speed Score, so I remain bullish on him long-term.
