Week 10 opens with a matchup in the Windy City between the Bears and Panthers. The Bears are listed as 3.5-point home favorites, while the total sits at 38.5 points.
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Finally, make sure to check out all the projections available for purchase (Chris Raybon’s come included with a FantasyLabs subscription) within the FantasyLabs Models. Subscribers now have the option to purchase Derek Carty’s THE BLITZ from our Marketplace. Projections from One Week Season and Establish the Run are available if you’re a subscriber to those specific sites (our optimizer is a separate add-on feature).
You can also combine them to create your own aggregate projections:
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NFL DFS Stud Picks
If you showed me this price on Adam Thielen before the season started, I’d be flabbergasted. However, it’s warranted. He had a down performance last week, but he’s now put up 30+ DraftKings points in three of his past six games.
Thielen’s splits have been dependent on the opposing defense’s coverage, as he’s thrived against man as opposed to zone. He has a 32% target rate per route run against man coverage compared to a 20% rate against zone coverage. Chicago plays man coverage at a league-average rate, and they’ve been solid against slot receivers, where Thielen thrives.
It’s also worth noting that Thielen’s three explosion games came in major blowouts against the Seahawks, Lions, and Dolphins. Thielen had solid production early on in the Miami game, though, where they took the lead.
DJ Moore leads the way on the Chicago side, and Justin Fields‘ injury has diminished Moore’s fantasy outlook. Moore averaged 28.65 DraftKings points per game in the four games prior to Fields’ injury and just 9.85 DraftKings points per game in the four games since. The 28.65-point mark is heavily buoyed by his 52-point performance, but he still averaged 20.87 DraftKings points in the other three contests.
Moore and Fields started to build a connection on deep shots, which hasn’t been the case with Bagent Tyson Bagent under center.
Moore is still a solid play, but he’s my least favorite of Thielen and the two quarterbacks. To be fair, he will be the lowest owned. He probably is the best overall player, so it makes him intriguing in tournaments.
Three interceptions really hindered Bagent’s performance last week, as he finished with 19.8 DraftKings points. That was against a stout New Orleans defense, and he gets an easier matchup here with the Panthers. Carolina has allowed the ninth-fewest DraftKings points to opposing quarterbacks, but that’s due to them facing the second-fewest pass attempts on the year. Most teams go more run-heavy against Carolina.
Bagent still projects as one of the top options on the slate.
With Chicago actually boasting a solid run defense, Bryce Young may chuck it more than usual. It’s been a bumpy ride for the number one overall pick, as he’s thrown eight touchdowns and seven interceptions on the year, including three picks last week against Indianapolis.
He’s only topped 15 DraftKings points once, with a 20.28-point performance against Detroit. I’m hoping Frank Reich takes the path of least resistance and lets Young chuck it, but we’ll see. I’m high on the Panthers’ passing attack as a whole.
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NFL DFS Midrange Picks
D’Onta Foreman headlines the midrange, and with Khalil Herbert likely missing this contest, Foreman stays viable. He had an explosion against Las Vegas where he found the end zone three times, but has totaled just 12.9 DraftKings points in the two games since.
The Bears are home favorites, and Carolina has allowed the second-most yards per carry to opposing backs and DraftKings points to opposing running backs. He’s squarely on my radar tonight.
Chuba Hubbard has supplanted Miles Sanders, playing on 46 snaps last week and handling 16 carries and six targets compared to six and five for Sanders. Chicago has allowed the fewest yards per carry but the most receiving fantasy points to opposing backs.
Hubbard’s workload is more valuable, but the price gap makes me more interested in Sanders. This could turn into a pure 50/50 split, and I’d gladly take the savings in that case.
It’s been a year to forget as a whole for Darnell Mooney, but he put together a solid performance last week, catching five of six targets for 82 yards.
Carolina has given up some shot plays, and Mooney has a higher target rate per route run with Bagent as opposed to Fields. However, his price is still a little too expensive for his usage.
Cole Kmet has had two of his best games of the year over the past two weeks with Bagent under center. He caught ten of ten targets for 79 yards against Los Angeles, and then six of eight targets for 55 yards and two touchdowns last week against New Orleans.
Kmet is dealing with a knee injury but is reportedly good to go for Thursday Night. Carolina has allowed the eighth fewest yards per target to opposing tight ends, and the fifth-fewest DraftKings points. Kmet is a solid option and surely is in my small pool, but he isn’t one of my top priorities as of now.
Hayden Hurst is having his role eaten into by Tommy Tremble. Tremble actually outsnapped Hurst in Week 8, with Hurst reclaiming the lead in Week 9. I’m uninterested here as a whole, but I prefer Tremble for the savings.
Jonathan Mingo has run a route on practically every dropback in the past four games and is very cheap tonight. He’s one of my top options to save salary.
With D.J. Chark listed as doubtful, it thrusts Terrace Marshall Jr. into play, who comes in near the minimum price. Usually, he’d be relegated to the punts section due to his price, but I included him here for those of you who don’t read that section.
When Chark has missed or been limited, Marshall just slots in for him. He’s a very easy click tonight, priced right above the minimum.
Roschon Johnson rounds out this section, as he’s cheap but was barely used last week. He saw just three touches, the same as Darrynton Evans. Roschon may cut into Foreman’s workload, but I’m probably just avoiding this situation as a whole.
NFL DFS Value & Punt Picks
- Defenses & Kickers: These options are always in play in the single-game format, but make sure to correlate the rest of your lineup around them. Given the expected low-scoring nature, these options may appear to be more optimal.
- Tyler Scott ($200 on DraftKings, $6,000 on FanDuel): Scott has ran a route on over 57% of the dropbacks in four straight games with 12 total targets. He’s certainly a viable punt tonight, but it may not be needed with some of the stronger plays like Mingo and Marshall also being very cheap.
