Last week’s cover boy, Patrick Mahomes, was 11% owned in the DraftKings Millionaire Maker and threw six touchdowns on 28 passing attempts. He had more touchdowns than incompletions against the Steelers, and much like Week 1, following the chalk of stacking the game with the highest total worked out in guaranteed prize pools (GPPs).
Unfortunately, my sprinkle pieces — Lamar Miller, Demaryius Thomas and Jordan Reed — were mostly underwhelming in terms of results, though they did OK in opportunity.
As we enter Week 3, only one player is projected for more than 20% ownership by us here at FantasyLabs, and it makes sense. We have more info, more differing opinions and there are three games in the main slate with totals of 53 or higher. And the regression monster is already being discussed openly for Mahomes, and the target distribution is so spread for the 49ers that it’s hard to be sure on any of them as a core play. All of this adds up to ownership being pretty spread out in large field tournaments this week.
So using FantasyLabs Pro Trends, models and projected ownership — as well as my personal research — let’s break down some low-ownership, fringe plays for Week 3.
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Cam Newton, QB, Carolina Panthers
Every week that Cam is not one of the five most-expensive quarterbacks, he becomes an elite tournament option.
As we saw last weekend with Ben Roethlisberger and Mahomes, points per dollar is very important at quarterback. Roethlisberger and Mahomes put up very similar point totals, but teams with Mahomes did better because there was more salary cap to spend. Not only does Newton have an elite ceiling, but he’s the 11th-most expensive quarterback on this week’s main slate. He’s also at home against the Bengals, who gave up a QB1 week to Joe Flacco last weekend and allowed a 73% completion rate to Andrew Luck on 53 attempts in Week 1.
Newton is the second-highest rated QB in the Tournament Model behind Matt Ryan, which is a decision most will have to make: Newton or Ryan.
Luckily that is a very easy decision, especially in tournaments.
Ryan’s absolute rushing ceiling is what he did last week, vulturing two touchdowns on the ground. The best way to get fantasy points for quarterbacks is through running, and Cam has five career games with two or more rushing touchdowns and 39 games with 50 or more rushing yards.
It really is as simple as Newton being underpriced, owning an elite ceiling and having a neutral-at-worst matchup.
Kareem Hunt, RB, Kansas City Chiefs
The Chiefs have run 114 offensive plays this season. Hunt has been on the field for 80. Spencer Ware and Damien Williams have each played 15 snaps. The Chiefs have run 13 plays from inside the red zone and passed on nine of those, with two rushes going each to Hunt and Mahomes. In 2017, the Chiefs ran 51 times from inside the 20, with 36 of those carries going to Hunt (to go along with 10 targets), and passed 78 times. In 2016, they ran 66 times and passed 80 times inside the red zone.
What I’m getting at is that it’s unlikely that an Andy Reid team is going to have a 80-0 passing-to-rushing touchdown ratio, which is what the Chiefs are on pace for right now. The issues with Hunt are not playing time. They’re targets and touchdown opportunities, and he certainly should be more than $6,000 on DraftKings given the team total and playing time he’s receiving.
When the statistical regression does begin to happen to Mahomes, it will positively benefit Hunt.
Kenyan Drake, RB, Miami Dolphins
“Inconvenient Truth” Gore (h/t Rotoworld for the nickname) will just not five up. The veteran has played almost 50% fewer snaps than Drake has (82 vs. 42), yet Gore has had a better yards per carry than the young Alabama product.
While it certainly has been a leak in my game to not be able to properly project playing time based on more than talent in the past, the Dolphins are just about doing the right thing with Gore and Drake. Drake is being used as the space back, the pass-catching back and to create his own space. Gore has only one target to Drake’s eight, and this week’s matchup against the Raiders is quite nice for Drake.
He has several Pro Trends in his favor: He’s averaged at least 4.8 yards per carry and 3.0 targets per game over the past 16 games, and he’s in the top 20% in points per dollar. The Dolphins are 3-point home favorites against a bad Raiders team, and overall, Miami has seemed like a competent football team through two games.
This is a classic home favorite with a good matchup, script and usage spot for Drake. And coming in at under 5% owned is a good way to deploy him.
Robert Woods, WR, Los Angeles Rams
If you look at any sort of “buy-low” model, Woods is going to pop off as a top target this week. He is the highest-rated wide receiver or running back in our Tournament Model, he is 11th among all wide receivers in total air yards and he has a 44% market share of the Rams’ total air yards in 2018.
The Rams have the fifth-highest implied total of the week at 27.5, and Woods is the one Rams option who has not converted his opportunity into fantasy points yet. While I was never huge on Woods’ talent, it is clear that Sean McVay knows exactly how the receiver needs to be used. And with his air yards profile, it is a matter of sooner rather than later that Woods will begin to accrue fantasy points.
The Chargers secondary seems like it should be good, but the unit was shredded by the Chiefs in Week 1, which proves the age-old, true adage that a good offense wins out over a good defense.
Adam Thielen, WR, Minnesota Vikings
There’s always a concern in these giant totals that a team is going to stop throwing, get conservative and owners will be left holding the bag in the second half. Well, through two games, no one playing against the Bills has been left holding the bag.
John Brown, Michael Crabtree and Willie Snead all scored for the Ravens, while Mike Williams and Melvin Gordon ran roughshod over the dilapidated Buffalo squad. Thielen leads the Vikings in targets, slot snaps and air yards. We have him projected at only 5-8% ownership, and he seems to be trailing Stefon Diggs in public sentiment.
While the real ceiling at wide receiver this week is with Julio Jones and Michael Thomas, there is real contrarian value in getting off those two. In fact, Thielen has the second-highest Leverage Score of the slate at wide receiver behind Marquise Goodwin. I’ll be treating Jones like a core play this weekend but will be using Thielen extensively in more contrarian lineups.
Ian Thomas, TE, Carolina Panthers
Tight end has been a real pain in all of our collective ends this year. Outside of Rob Gronkowski and Travis Kelce — the top overall tournament play at tight end this week — the position has been pretty brutal. Jack Doyle leads the position in snaps and routes but has yet to turn that into a real value for our DFS rosters. I will most likely be taking Doyle in cash games, but I love stacking Newton with Thomas. The popular cheap chalk tight end will probably be Austin Hooper, and maybe Ricky Seals-Jones.
Thomas, despite the lack of results, has played 100 of the Panthers’ 134 snaps and has also ran as the slot player on 45 of those. In fact, he’s played the second-most slot snaps of all tight ends other than Jimmy Graham. Thomas is what we would call a peripheral performer; looking at his playing numbers, I would expect him to be a borderline TE1, but he has done absolutely nothing so far.
There is no value in eating bad chalk, so I love Thomas as a pivot off Hooper and Doyle.
Pictured above: Cam Newton
Credit: Jeremy Brevard-USA TODAY Sports
