This series uses the FantasyLabs Tools to analyze the relevant players from Thursday Night Football. The series does not provide play or fade recommendations. It provides analysis by looking at the dynamics of expected game flow, pace, Vegas lines, and advanced analytics.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. New England Patriots
A Dirk Koetter-led Buccaneers team has never finished outside the top-10 in run/pass ratio; they’ve averaged the 11th-fastest neutral pace over the past two seasons. The Bucs averaged 28.9 rush attempts over their last eight games (6-2 record) and 32.6 pass attempts. That run/pass split over the entire season would have made Tampa Bay a top-five team in running play percentage in each of the past two seasons. All that said, through four games to start the 2017 season they have skewed much more toward the pass, running the seventh-fewest percentage of run plays in the league (36.67 percent). It’s possible the addition of DeSean Jackson has changed the offensive philosophy, but they’ve also picked up the pace even more, ranking as the sixth-fastest team in neutral situations (Football Outsiders).
The Patriots are arguably the best offensive team over the last decade. They’ve been top-six in points per drive each year, top-six in neutral pace (Football Outsiders) in every year but one, and top-12 in offensive scoring and play volume in every season since 2001 and 2004, respectively. In the 17-year Bill Belichick era, the Pats have been top-12 in pass attempts and rush attempts in 76.5 and 64.7 percent of seasons. Through four games this season, the Patriots have run the 11th-highest percentage of pass plays (61.54 percent) and have operated as the fastest-paced offense in the league.
Per our Week 5 Vegas Report, all four of New England’s games have gone over the total, and two of three Tampa Bay games have also gone over. Bettors don’t seem to be phased by this historically high Thursday total; the over/under sits at 55 points with the Patriots favored by five points on the road.
New England is coming off another disappointing home loss. The spread opened at -4 in the Patriots’ favor, by Monday afternoon it moved to -5.5, and it currently sits at -5. Given the current betting trends, with 70 percent of the spread bets on New England, this line could easily make its way back to -5.5 before game time. This would normally be a great spot to go contrarian by betting on the Bucs at home, but historically the Patriots have been dominant off a loss. Since 2003, they are 34-11 against the spread (ATS) coming off a loss, and they have covered the spread by nearly nine points on average (SportsInsights).
Players in the TNF game sometimes go over-owned in tournaments, but being overweight in your exposures tonight could certainly be warranted. The Patriots defense has allowed the second-most points in the league, and the Bucs are top-10 in passing yards allowed. The Tampa defense in particular has been a clear funnel defense to start the year: They rank 27th and third in pass and rush defense, respectively. The game couldn’t set up much better for fantasy points. Players usually undervalue game stacks, so here are the correlation values (per our NFL Correlations page) for actual fantasy points versus the ownership values for a game stack with Jameis Winston (based on positions):
The ownership correlation between Winston, Mike Evans, Jackson, and Chris Hogan could be lower than expected, despite the fact that they have very correlated outcomes. If you have the salary, you could also run back your Bucs stacks with Brandin Cooks or Rob Gronkowski. After lineups lock, visit our DFS Contests Dashboard and use our Stack Seeker tool to identify the top contrarian stack of this game.
Jameis Winston, QB
It’s a dream matchup for the Bucs passing game, as the Patriots have given up stat lines of 368-4, 356-2, 301-2, and 316-3 to Alex Smith, Drew Brees, Deshaun Watson, and Cam Newton through the air to start the season. The defense ranks dead last in pass DVOA, but the offense is second in scoring; game script and pace shouldn’t hold back Winston’s pass attempts (11th-most in 2017). He is the clear top QB play of the entire week in our Pro Models.
Mike Evans, WR
Over the past two weeks in brutally tough matchups against Janoris Jenkins and Xavier Rhodes, Evans has still averaged 11.5 targets, six receptions, 67 yards, and 0.5 touchdowns. Per our Week 5 Market Share Report, Winston has peppered Evans with a 29.36 percent target market share (top-five in the NFL), and he finally has a good matchup to attack Thursday. He currently boasts the highest ceiling of any wide receiver for the entire weekend.
DeSean Jackson, WR
FantasyLabs co-founder Jonathan Bales likes Jackson this week, so I considered taking the easy way out and ending this blurb early. Jackson’s 35.0 percent target market share of air yards is top-10 in the NFL through four weeks, and his 41.7 percent end zone target share is 10th-highest (PlayerProfiler). Further, his 22.3 yards per target is ninth-highest, and the Patriots are 12th-worst at defending deep passes (Football Outsiders).
Cameron Brate, TE
His 27.3 percent red zone target share may be second on the team (Evans is at 45.5 percent), but it’s third-highest at the position. That said, he has just one target inside the 10-yard line a year removed from finishing third at the position in that category (seven) and first in total touchdowns (eight). The Patriots have given up the fourth-most DraftKings PPG (16.9) and touchdowns (0.75 per game) to tight ends this year.
Tom Brady, QB
He’s $2,000 more expensive than Winston on DraftKings, but paying up for Brady in tournaments makes a ton of sense in this spot against this Tampa Bay funnel defense that has allowed the third-most DraftKings points to the position. In games with comparable Vegas data on the road, Brady has historically provided a +5.71 Plus/Minus at 13.2 percent ownership.
James White, RB
In career games with five or more targets, White has averaged 14.54 DraftKings points. The Bucs are 30th at defending running backs in the passing game (Football Outsiders), and White has the sixth-most targets (6.5) and receiving yards (43.2) per game at the position.
Brandin Cooks, WR
Tampa Bay is the sixth-worst team at defending deep passes to start the year (Football Outsiders), and Cooks’ average depth of target (19.4 yards) trails only Martavis Bryant‘s (21.9) and Jackson’s (20.6) marks for wide receivers with 20 or more targets. Cooks has a 30.0 percent target market share of air yards, but his total air yards of 294 are the seventh-most in the league.
Chris Hogan, WR
His 15.5 DraftKings PPG is top-15 in the NFL at the position through four games. He still has underappreciated touchdown upside with a team-leading eight red zone targets; he trails only Larry Fitzgerald in that category. For a team that is in the red zone a lot, Hogan has the 12th-highest target share inside the 10-yard line at any position and has the fourth-most targets overall from that distance.
Rob Gronkowski, TE
Speaking of touchdown equity, Gronk is first in the league since 2010 with 71 total touchdowns, and that’s despite missing 24 games. The Brady-Gronkowski stack is almost always in play for tournaments given their high 0.67 fantasy points correlation value. Gronk leads the position in yards after catch (4.2 per target) and target distance (10.5). He has been battling a thigh injury this week, so be sure to monitor our Week 5 Injury Dashboard and NFL News feed for any updates.
Good luck, and be sure to read our positional breakdowns!
News Updates
After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide news updates on a number of players herein mentioned. Be sure to stay ahead of your competition with our industry-leading NFL News feed:
