Identifying value is paramount to success in NBA DFS. If we want to be able to roster the high-floor/high-ceiling premium players like Russell Westbrook, Steph Curry and others, concessions – in the form of low priced players – need to be made. Lucky for us, value is constantly popping up due the nature of the NBA. Whether it be injuries, rest or rotational changes, it is not uncommon to find players thrust into more meaningful roles on a regular basis in this league. When such changes occur, daily fantasy sites generally won’t have the ability to update the player’s pricing to reflect their new role and playing time, and this is where we find our value.
At FantasyLabs, we like to take things one step further. Not only will we be identifying players based upon their expected fantasy output in relation to their price, we’ll also be incorporating Bargain Rating into the equation whenever possible. If you’re unfamiliar with this metric, I recommend taking a look at this short video from our co-founder Jonathan Bales on how he uses this rating within our Player Models tool.
Please note, this article is written earlier in the day. As much of the news surrounding the NBA breaks near tip off, please monitor our Player News page for all relevant updates. Also, all salaries presented below are for DraftKings (DK).
Point Guard
Jeff Teague — $5,900
Always a candidate for most under-owned on an evening’s slate of games, Jeff Teague seems to draw the ire of daily fantasy players on a regular basis, generally due to his occasional minutes instability and perceived lack of ceiling. And while there is certainly validity to the concern over playing time — Teague has logged less than 25 minutes in three of his previous 10 games — he has flashed plenty of ceiling to warrant consideration at his sub-$6k price tag.
Topping six times value in four of his previous 10 contests, while also producing a more than acceptable 70% Consistency rating (see the interactive widget below), speaks to the quality production we’ve received from Teague of late; something not always easily obtained at his price point.
In a matchup with a Cavs team that will have an Opponent Plus/Minus +1.74 against him tonight, Teague is a solid bet to hit value once again. By utilizing our Trends tool, we can see that matchups this season against comparable opposition — teams with an Opponent Plus/Minus of at least +1.00 — have proven to be quite exploitable for Teague this year.
With a 90% Bargain Rating on DK, Teague makes for a solid target at point guard at Cleveland this evening.
Shooting Guard
Josh Richardson — $4,400
Yes, Josh Richardson put up a dud of a game on Wednesday, but as a daily fantasy player our job is to have a short memory, right? So, with that said, what positives can we take away from his poor showing? For starters, he once again logged plenty of minutes (29.35) and saw roughly his usual shot volume (eight). Now unfortunately he didn’t convert a single one of those field goal attempts, leading to a lackluster performance.
I’m intrigued to see how the sharp-shooting rookie bounces back after what had been a stellar month of March. On one hand, Richardson’s insane 3-point field goal percentage of 58.9% over the month clearly illustrates his impressive ability. But on the other hand, regression is likely coming at some point, as his hot shooting is unlikely to be sustainable long term. So, has regression begun for Tennessee product or was Wednesday’s game just a blip on the radar?
If his price were higher, I’d be more inclined to lay off of Richardson for a game or two and see how he handles the situation, but at just $4,400 — and sporting a Bargain Rating of 86% on DK — I’m apt to give him the benefit of the doubt in a prime matchup against a Kings team that will have an Opponent Plus/Minus of +4.54 against him.
With Sacramento allowing the third-highest average Plus/Minus to the position this year — and ranking dead last in 3-point field goal makes allowed per game — Richardson is worth a gamble at his low price this evening.
Small Forward
Marcus Morris — $5,300
Averaging 32.55 DK points per game over his previous five contests, Marcus Morris remains underpriced on DK with a Bargain Rating of 66%. Not only has Morris hit value in all five of his previous games, he’s managed to eclipse 7x value in two of these matchups.
Power Forward
Marvin Williams — $5,700
Coming off of a mildly disappointing outing against Philadelphia on Tuesday, Marvin Williams is a great candidate for a bounce-back performance against them tonight.
The matchup itself should be solid Williams, as the 76ers will have an Opponent Plus/Minus of +2.1 against him. His lack of fantasy production on Tuesday can be linked back to his struggles shooting the ball, as he shot 30% from the field and failed to hit any of his four 3-point field goal attempts. The fact that he managed nine boards against this ragtag Philadelphia team intrigues me though, as if he can get his shot going, there is real potential in this matchup.
There is some concern that this game will get out of hand at home in Charlotte, but if Williams is able to log 25-30 minutes prior to this occurring, he should be plenty capable of returning solid value.
Center
Rudy Gobert — $5,900
Karl-Anthony Towns has excelled in many areas this season, but the defensive side of the ball is not one of them. Largely attributed to Town’s lackluster Defensive Real Plus-Minus ranking of 63rd of 78 qualifying centers this year, Minnesota is allowing an average Plus/Minus of +3.33 to opposing centers.
Gobert’s play has been highly variable this season, keeping him in tournament only territory for me, where we can more confidently target his ceiling — he’s hit 40-plus DK points on two of his previous occasions. I’d worry about utilizing Gobert in cash games due to the slow-natured pace of the the Jazz combined with his low floor, but as a tournament option, I can definitely get behind utilizing him in tournaments tonight.
