At FantasyLabs, we believe that we have the best daily fantasy sports tools and data available. We also realize that these tools and data are only as beneficial as our ability to communicate their functionality and worth.
With this in mind, our Trend of the Day series features articles that walk subscribers each weekday through an important trend, created with our FREE Trends tool. Also, shortly after you create a trend, you will be able to see it under the “My Trends” column in our Player Models.
MLB Trend of the Day: Bottom-Of-The-Order Rockies
Tonight, the Rockies have an implied Vegas total of 7.0 runs. I repeat: The Rockies are projected for 7.0 runs tonight.
That is an unreal number, and one that we see approached only at Coors Field and for teams who are hitting the ball really well. The Rockies check both of those boxes in today’s main slate. This obviously got me interested in them, especially the cheaper bottom-of-the-order guys. Let’s dive into it.
Let’s start by looking at Plus/Minus according to batting order alone.
Step 1: Player Filters > Lineup Order
This fits our intuition: Batters hitting first have a position-high +0.61 Plus/Minus, while batters hitting ninth have a position-low -0.76.
But what if these batters’ teams are projected for a lot of runs? Say seven-ish?
Step 2A: Vegas Filters > Runs > 7 to 10
Well, that doesn’t work because the Rockies’ projected total of 7.0 runs tonight is the highest ever in our database.
For the sake of this article and trend, let’s lower it to 6.0 runs or more.
Step 2B: Vegas Filters > Runs > 6.0 to 6.8
Step 3: Player Filters > Lineup Order
The overall Plus/Minus here is +1.50, but what is more interesting is the difference between our baseline and current Plus/Minus. Every batter in the lineup (minus the ninth) has positive expectations. In fact, the Plus/Minus of the eighth batter (+0.52) is better than all-baseline Plus/Minus values except for that of the baseline leadoff hitter.
In other words, the bottom-of-the-order Rockies batters tonight are potentially more valuable than the batters at the top of the order in any other lineup.
This is especially interesting because our Plus/Minus metric, by definition, is salary-adjusted. I’m not saying that Rockies batters score more points at Coors Field: That is painfully obvious. What I’m saying is that even though DraftKings and FanDuel elevate the salaries of Coors players, the players still provide excess value.
Rockies batters have high prices tonight. They’re still not high enough.
