In every MLB Plays of the Day post, several FantasyLabs writers use our FREE Trends tool and Player Models to highlight each one player to roster heavily in cash games and/or tournaments for the day’s slates.
Here are today’s plays of the day.
Bryan Mears: Jon Lester, CHC, SP
In recommending Lester, I mostly want to highlight the importance of price sensitivity, because the salaries for pitchers can vary wildly across DFS sites.
There are two premium pitchers today: Lester and Max Scherzer. (On today’s MLB Daily Fantasy Flex podcast, I explain why I don’t consider Felix Hernandez to be a premium pitcher in this slate.) But even though Lester and Scherzer are in the same general tier, they are not entirely equivalent because of their price differences. On DraftKings, Scherzer is $13,200 and Lester is $9,900. On FanDuel, however, Scherzer is $10,700 and Lester is $10,600. The difference in relative value from one platform to the other is huge.
Because they’re comparably priced on FD, Scherzer is the preferable option, because he has a better matchup and is a heavier favorite, and you only take one SP on that platform anyway. But on DK (where Scherzer has a Bargain Rating of one percent), Lester is the superior option.
A lot of DFSers first analyze players and matchups and then look at player salaries.
That is a good way to convince yourself that you should start a player even though he’s a bad value. In many cases, you definitely should not use the same core players across sites, and the Scherzer/Lester dynamic tonight is a great example of why.
Bill Monighetti: Nelson Cruz, SEA, OF
In today’s main slate, we have another game at Coors Field featuring questionable pitching. We also have a few ace pitchers in plus matchups today. As a result, it seems like there are two paths you can take when constructing your rosters.
- Pay down at pitcher and stack Coors.
- Pay up at pitcher and use cheap batters.
However, on slates like this, there is a middle ground that often is overlooked, and that’s where Cruz comes in.
Yes, his price on DraftKings is up $700 since yesterday. Yes, he is playing at PETCO Park. Yes, I am giving you reasons not to play Cruz while simultaneously telling you to play him.
Cruz’s ownership should be almost nonexistent tonight. And for all the flack we give PETCO Park, we have seen 47 home runs at that venue so far this season. That is seventh-most in the National League, and five more than at Wrigley Field.
Home runs occur at PETCO, and if we’re willing to accept that then paying up for Cruz and his .399 Weighted On-Base Average (wOBA) and .256 Isolated Power (ISO) splits doesn’t seem so reckless, especially when the opposing left-handed pitcher has spent the past four seasons bouncing back and forth between the minor and major leagues.
Expect the DFS public A) to overlook Cruz’s Upside against a weak lefty and B) to overcorrect on him based on the negative aspects of his matchup. Cruz is not a cash game play, but give him a long look in tournaments tonight.
Tyler Buecher: Jose Altuve, HOU, 2B
Per our free Lineups page, there’s a 50-percent chance of rain in tonight’s matchup between the Astros and Diamondbacks, but Houston has a retractable roof, so either way the weather shouldn’t be a concern. The Astros’ implied Vegas total of 5.1 runs trails only that of the Rockies and makes Houston a nice pivot away from Colorado, where most people will be chasing the 17 runs scored last night.
Altuve is batting .327 on the year and is riding a six-game hitting streak. More importantly, per our advanced stats, Altuve has been on a tear over the last 15 days, with markedly improved Hard-Hit, Distance, and Exit Velocity Differentials (+13 percent, +20 feet, +5 miles per hour). In fact, Altuve actually leads all second basemen in tonight’s slate with a recent Exit Velocity of 95 MPH.
On top of that, he’s sporting a .432 wOBA and capable of grabbing extra bases with a position-leading .248 stolen bases per game. And lefty Robbie Ray lasted only 4.2 innings against the Padres in his last start, yielding two homers and nine hits.
Altuve’s a great play for tonight’s slate, with an 86-percent Bargain Rating on FanDuel. Given Altuve’s production and value, he makes for a strong tournament play.
Mitchell Block: Evan Gattis, HOU, OF/C
A matchup with LHP Robbie Ray awaits Gattis and the Astros, who have the slate’s second-highest implied run total. Additionally, Gattis has nine Pro Trends on DraftKings, where he possesses a 70-percent Bargain Rating and is listed as an outfielder. (Note that Gattis is exclusively a catcher on FanDuel.)
Bargain Rating, Pro Trends, and other premium exclusive metrics are accessible via our free Ratings tool.
Given that Gattis has a Hard-Hit Differential Score in the 96th percentile, he has the potential to do very well against a pitcher with a WHIP as high as Ray’s, especially since Gattis has an average Plus/Minus of +4.23 against LHP this season, opposed to an average Plus/Minus of -2.4) against RHP
Gattis’ numbers against lefties are particularly good this year, in part because the Astros have opted to bat Gattis in front of Colby Rasmus against left-handed pitching. This added lineup protection has led to a decreased strikeout rate of nine percentage points and a huge bump in production. Though we’re dealing with a small sample, Gattis’ Plus/Minus in these situations this season is +7.25, with an average of 14.40 DraftKings points per game.
Regardless of whether this is an anomaly, I’d rather have Gattis hitting out of the cleanup spot with Rasmus behind him than vice versa — and that’s how we have the Astros lineup projected for tonight.
Be sure to check out Mitch’s State of the Stacks article for more information on the Astros.
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The Plays of the Day series is our answer to the question, “Who do you guys like today?” We publish a Plays of the Day article every weekday for MLB and a Plays of the Week every Wednesday for PGA and Euro Tour.
