The MLB Breakdown offers data-driven analysis using the FantasyLabs Tools and predictive metrics to highlight notable players.
Thursday features a nine-game main slate that begins at 7:05 p.m. ET.
Pitchers
Studs
Pitching options are incredibly thin on Thursday’s slate, with just one pitcher on FanDuel costing at least $9,000:
- Rich Hill (L) $9,000, LAD @ ATL— A. Sanchez (R)
Hill has been hit or miss this season given all of his injury issues. This season he’s averaging a forgettable -0.45 FanDuel Plus/Minus with 50% Consistency. Hill looked solid in his last start, striking out nine Brewers while surrendering just one earned run in six innings. There’s always some risk in rostering Hill because he rarely/never goes deep into games and gets past 100 pitches. In his 12 starts this year, Hill has thrown for over 100 pitches once and gone six innings or longer in less than half his starts.
Given the projected Braves lineup has a fairly low strikeout rate (23.2%) against left-handed pitchers over the past 12 months, there’s some uncertainty in Hill despite his 7.7 K Prediction. Further, the Braves rank third in Weighted Runs Created Plus (wRC+) against lefties this season (FanGraphs). The Dodgers have relatively mediocre Vegas data, checking in with -130 moneyline odds; the Braves are implied for 4.0 runs. Historically, pitchers with comparable K Predictions and Vegas data have been slightly above average, averaging a +2.16 FanDuel Plus/Minus with 57.3% Consistency (per our Trends tool).
Values
Nick Kingham possesses a solid 82% Bargain Rating on FanDuel. On this putrid pitching slate, Kingham and the Pirates have some of the most favorable Vegas data with their -151 moneyline odds; the Mets are implied for 3.6 runs. Kingham’s in a nice spot against a projected Mets lineup that possesses a 25.1% strikeout rate and mediocre weighted on-base average (wOBA) of .296 over the past year against right-handed pitchers. Additionally, the Mets rank 22nd this season in splits-adjusted wRC+. Kingham’s 5.9 K Prediction leaves much to be desired, but he’s been great at limiting hard contact over his past two starts, holding opposing teams to a 20% hard-hit rate and 85 mph exit velocity. Pitchers with comparable batted-ball data have historically averaged an excellent +4.15 FanDuel Plus/Minus with 59.4% Consistency.
Sonny Gray and the Yankees lead the day with -250 moneyline odds against the Royals. The Royals rank 27th in wRC+ against righties this season; their 3.61 runs per game this season ranks 29th in the majors. On a slate full of volatile pitchers, Gray is likely one of the better options. He’s in terrific recent form, generating loads of soft contact, evidenced by his 84 mph exit velocity, 19% hard-hit rate, and 180-foot average batted-ball distance. Those marks represent significant differences compared to his 12-month averages. Pitchers with comparable batted-ball data have averaged an excellent +4.79 FanDuel Plus/Minus.
Fastballs
Wade Miley: He’s tied with Hill for a slate-high 7.7 K Prediction. Miley has a favorable matchup against a projected Giants lineup that owns the slate’s highest splits-adjusted strikeout rate (29.3%) and weak .295 wOBA over the past year. AT&T is a pitcher-friendly venue, sporting a Park Factor of 94. Pitchers on the mound in parks with comparable Park Factors have historically averaged a +1.82 FanDuel Plus/Minus.
Anibal Sanchez: He could be a contrarian play against the Dodgers since the Braves are slight underdogs, sitting with +114 moneyline odds. His 6.5 K Prediction is the third-best mark on the slate. Sanchez has smashed over the past month, averaging a +10.63 FanDuel Plus/Minus with 67% Consistency. Additionally, the projected Dodgers lineup has been relatively average over the past year against righties, possessing a 25.4% strikeout rate and .326 wOBA, along with ranking 16th in wRC+ this year.
Dereck Rodriguez: It’s basically a pick’em situation in San Francisco with the Giants checking in with -108 moneyline odds. Rodriguez has been great over the past month, averaging a +5.05 FanDuel Plus/Minus with 75% Consistency. He’ll have the beneficial park shift, but his main concern is his horrible Statcast data over his past two starts: He’s allowed a 249-foot average distance, 94 mph exit velocity, and 52% hard-hit rate.
Trevor Cahill: He’ll take on a projected Rangers lineup that has been strikeout-happy against righties over the past year (28.7% strikeout rate), and they rank 23rd in splits-adjusted wRC+ against right-handed pitchers this season. That said, the Rangers are implied for 5.1 runs in a hitter-friendly environment (28 Weather Rating for pitchers). Cahill is better reserved for large-field tournaments.
Notable Stacks
With our Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS lineups. The top five-man DraftKings stack in the CSURAM88 Model belongs to the Oakland Athletics:
- Nick Martini (L)
- Marcus Semien (R)
- Jed Lowrie (S)
- Khris Davis (R)
- Stephen Piscotty (R)
Total Salary: $21,200
The Athletics’ 5.9 implied run total is one of the highest marks on the slate, and their Team Value Rating of 84 on DraftKings is a slate-best. They’ll square off against Bartolo Colon, who has allowed three or more earned runs in each of his past four starts; he’s sporting a 4.85 ERA this season. Colon’s 1.87 HR/9 allowed over the past 12 months is the second-worst mark on the main slate.
Davis has been out of this world over his past four games, hitting six home runs during that time frame. He’s boasting absurd Statcast data over the past 15 days with his 292-foot average distance, 100 mph exit velocity, and 70% hard-hit rate. Davis has excelled against right-handed pitching over the past year, sporting a .372 wOBA and .298 isolated power (ISO), so it wouldn’t be shocking to see him continue his hot streak tonight.
Given the A’s also have the top-rated FanDuel stack in the CSURAM88 Model, we’ll look elsewhere. Next in line is the New York Yankees:
1. Brett Gardner (L)
2. Aaron Judge (R)
3. Didi Gregorius (L)
5. Aaron Hicks (S)
Total Salary: $14,400
The matchup against righty Jake Junis will put Judge on the positive side of his wOBA and ISO splits. Judge has obliterated right-handed pitchers over the past 12 months, evidenced by his elite .409 wOBA and .315 ISO. Gardner and Gregorius will also be on the positive side of their wOBA and ISO splits. They each possess wOBAs above .333, and Gregorius has shown exceptional power over the past year against righties, boasting a .227 ISO. This stack is rather affordable on FanDuel since Gardner, Judge, and Gregorius all own Bargain Ratings of at least 93%, while Hicks checks in with a 70% Bargain Rating.
Other Batters
Andrew Benintendi and the Red Sox lead the slate with a 6.0 implied run total against Kyle Gibson and the Twins. He possesses a very friendly 99% Bargain Rating on FanDuel. It’s a good spot for Benintendi considering he boasts an elite .394 wOBA and .213 ISO against righties over the past 12 months. Further, Benintendi is generating tons of hard contact over the past 15 days, evidenced by his 96 mph exit velocity and 55% hard-hit rate. Both marks exceed his 12-month averages.
Eugenio Suarez is projected to occupy the cleanup spot for the Reds. He has crushed the baseball over the past 15 days, posting positive differentials in average batted-ball distance (+25 feet), exit velocity (+2 mph), and hard-hit rate (+10 percentage points). He has shown exceptional power against lefties over the past year, hitting them to the tune of a .447 wOBA and .266 ISO. Historically, hitters sporting comparable batted-ball differentials featured in games with similar implied run totals (5.1) have averaged a +4.07 FanDuel Plus/Minus.
With the Nationals implied for 4.6 runs, Matt Adams will likely be very low owned. He’s a progression candidate with his +48 and +46 Recent Batted Ball Luck (RBBL) scores on DraftKings and FanDuel. Adams has smashed the baseball over his past 10 games, owning a 272-foot average distance, 96 mph exit velocity, and 45% hard-hit rate, but he doesn’t have the fantasy points to show for it. His +50-foot distance differential is the highest mark among first basemen by 19 feet. Hitters with comparable distance differentials and RBBL scores have historically averaged a solid +2.87 FanDuel Plus/Minus.
Good luck, and be sure to check out The Action Network if you’re looking for more in-depth MLB analysis.
After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide news updates on a number of players. Be sure to stay ahead of your competition with our industry-leading DFS-focused news blurbs.
Pictured above: Khris Davis
Photo credit: Tim Heitman-USA TODAY Sports
