The MLB Breakdown offers data-driven analysis using the FantasyLabs Tools and predictive metrics to highlight notable players within our MLB Player Models.
Wednesday features an eight-game slate starting at 7:05 p.m. ET.
MLB DFS Pitching Picks
MLB DFS Stud Pick
Kevin Gausman ($10,500) Toronto Blue Jays (-150) vs. Philadelphia Phillies
Five of the 16 pitchers on today’s slate check in at least $9,000, with all five of them projected for at least 20 DraftKings points in the FantasyLabs projections. That makes picking between them a difficult task today — though we’re expecting the chalk to form around Blake Snell ($10,100).
I think Gausman is the better play today, though, for a number of reasons. Both are among the five qualified starters with a 30% or higher strikeout rate on the season, with Gausman holding a narrow lead in that category. Snell’s ERA of 2.63 is a bit better than Gausman’s 3.04 — but Gausman has the lower xERA and xFIP.
That suggests Snell has been luckier than Gausman to this point, which should equalize over a long enough time frame. Potentially starting today, as Gausman has the far better matchup. The Phillies have a 98 wRC+ against righties, while Snell is facing a Baltimore team that has a 109 wRC+ against lefties. For what it’s worth, the Phillies also strike out about two percent more.
Given the similar Vegas Data, those factors are enough to tilt me to Gausman, even for an extra $400 in salary. I’m happy to pay the premium when it comes to an ownership discount, as we’re projecting today.
MLB DFS Value Pick
Jon Gray ($6,900) Texas Rangers (-180) vs. Los Angeles Angels
At first glance, this appears to be a difficult matchup for Gray. The Angels have a top 10 wRC+ against righties on the season at 107. However, they’ve struggled heavily since losing Mike Trout in early July.
Since Trout’s injury, the Angels have posted a 94 wRC+ and a league-leading 28% strikeout rate against right-handed pitching. That gives Gray plenty of upside since his 20.8% strikeout rate is due for some positive regression anyway, based on his swinging strike figure (and career numbers.)
The Angels’ 4.0 run implied total is on the lower side of the slate, and the only pitchers with better numbers, according to Vegas, cost $9,600 or above. That makes Gray a solid value play today since it’s fairly difficult to fit two of the top-tier arms.
He leads all pitchers in Pts/Sal projection in the FantasyLabs models while coming in second in THE BAT.
MLB DFS GPP Pick
Clayton Kershaw ($9,900) Los Angeles Dodgers (-240) vs. Milwaukee Brewers
Kershaw is tough to project today. He’s making just his second start since coming off the injured list, following a solid but unspectacular 15.45-point performance last time out. However, he was pulled after less than 70 pitches and was on pace for a bit over 20 points at his usual workload.
It’s hard to say where his workload will be today. On the one hand, the Dodgers have a nine-game divisional lead, so there’s no reason to push Kershaw too heavily before the playoffs. On the other hand, there’s an argument that they need to ramp his workload up for the postseason to have him in top form come October.
The likeliest outcome is probably somewhere in the middle, with a pitch count in the upper 80s today. That should be more than enough against the Brewers, who’ve struggled against lefties all season and are implied for just 3.5 runs. That figure ties for the lowest on the slate.
The uncertainty around his workload should keep ownership on Kershaw to a minimum, making him a solid pivot from the chalkier options for large-field GPPs. I’d stay away in cash games and smaller tournaments though, given the variety of safer options in his price range.
MLB DFS Hitters and Stacks
Notable Stack
With the Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS rosters.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups.
The top DraftKings stack in the FantasyLabs MLB Tournament Model when generated by rating using an aggregate projection set belongs to the Chicago Cubs:
The Cubs lead the slate with their 6.3-run implied total tonight as they take on their cross-town rival White Sox. The White Sox are starting Mike Clevinger ($5,700), who sports a 3.55 ERA but much worse leading indicators — including a 5.46 xFIP.
The Cubs have been a top-10 offense against righties all season and should be able to enforce some negative regression on Clevinger’s ERA tonight. With Wrigley winds blowing out to left field, it’s a good night for power hitters as well, as Clevinger has a fly ball rate above 50% on the season.
There are also plenty of cheaper options on the Cubs that are viable pivots tonight, making them an excellent stack regardless of how much salary you want to allocate to them.
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Other MLB DFS Hitter Picks
One of the great features of being a FantasyLabs Pro member is the option to purchase additional items in the FantasyLabs Marketplace.
In addition to our in-house MLB projections, THE BAT X from Derek Carty of RotoGrinders is available in our marketplace. With this purchase, you can use his projections alone or create aggregate projections within our Player Models.
For this example, we created a 50/50 blend with THE BAT X and the FantasyLabs projections to pinpoint some hitters that stand out.
Yasmani Grandal C ($2,500 DraftKings; $2,300 FanDuel) Chicago White Sox at Chicago Cubs (Javier Assad)
Both sides of the Chicago showdown have some appeal tonight, with the underdog White Sox implied for a solid five runs in their own right. While the top of the lineup should catch most of the interest, I’ll be getting some exposure through Grandal.
While his numbers aren’t great, he’s hitting .243 with eight home runs on the season. At a thin catcher position, that’s enough to have him projected as the leading Pts/Sal option on DraftKings. Given the expense of the Cubs’ stack and the viable pitchers today, we need to save salary somewhere.
Michael Massey 2B ($2,800 DraftKings; $2,300 FanDuel) Kansas City Royals vs. Seattle Mariners (Luis Castillo)
Normally when I’m analyzing platoon splits, I look at the batters’ numbers. Since they’re priced for their overall production, batters with extreme splits against a certain handedness project as strong values — especially when they’re lefty specialists.
However, sometimes it’s important to check out pitcher splits as well. This is one of those cases, as the Mariners’ Castillo has a .263 wOBA against righties but a .311 number against lefties like Massey. Kansas City is thin on solid lefties in their lineup, but Massey has the best numbers of the bunch.
It’s easy to find pitchers like Castillo with our PlateIQ tool, which shows their numbers against lefties and righties at a glance:
Mariners’ starter Luis Castillo splits
Michael Harris OF ($4,600 DraftKings; $2,900 FanDuel) Atlanta Braves vs. New York Yankees (Randy Vasquez)
The start-studded Braves are implied for six runs tonight, a figure that trails only the Cubs for the highest on the slate. They’re difficult to fit, however, thanks to a star-studded lineup featuring three hitters priced at $5,800 or more on DraftKings.
Right between them in the lineup is Harris, the number two hitter who’s coming at a significant discount. Like his more renowned teammates, he’s a dual threat with 11 home runs and 16 steals through 97 games and a solid .287 batting average.
He’s a low-cost way to get some exposure to the Braves’ massive upside, particularly on FanDuel, where he has an 86% Bargain Rating.
