The MLB Breakdown offers data-driven analysis using the FantasyLabs Tools and predictive metrics to highlight notable players within our MLB Player Models.
Friday features a five-game slate starting at 6:40 p.m. ET.
MLB DFS Pitcher Picks
Stud
The day after Opening Day always feels like a bit of disappointment. Most teams schedule an off-day in case Opening Day rains out, so the only teams that play are those without weather concerns. That means dome teams and teams in good-weather states. The result is just five games to choose from on Friday, and with every team rolling out their top pitcher on Thursday, the arms aren’t nearly as appealing.
Cristian Javier stands out as the clear top option. Javier started last year in the bullpen but blossomed into one of the best starters in baseball. He averaged 11.74 strikeouts per nine innings, and he had an elite 32.6% strikeout rate as a member of the rotation. The only qualified starters with better marks last season were Carlos Rodon and Shohei Ohtani.
Javier also excelled at keeping runs off the scoreboard. He posted just a 2.54 ERA, and while his advanced metrics suggest he was a bit fortunate, he still checked in with a 3.16 FIP and a 3.14 SIERA.
His matchup vs. the White Sox is a bit of a mixed bag. They were tough to strike out last season, posting the seventh-lowest strikeout rate against right-handed pitchers, but they were just 23rd in wRC+ in that split. They’re currently implied for 3.5 runs, which is the fourth-lowest mark on the slate.
Javier also comes at a slight discount at $8,200 on DraftKings. It results in a slate-high Bargain Rating of 79%, and he’s priced above $10,000 on FanDuel. Given his pedigree, that’s more than enough to make him the top option.
Value
Nick Martinez will get the ball for the Padres, and he stands out as the preferred choice on FanDuel. He’s priced at just $7,600, resulting in a Bargain Rating of 82%, and he has the best Vegas data on the slate. He’s listed as a -196 favorite against the Rockies, who are implied for a slate-low 3.2 runs. Historically, pitchers with comparable salaries and Vegas data have averaged a Plus/Minus of +4.69 (per the Trends tool).
Martinez is coming off a career-best campaign with the Padres in 2022, posting a 3.47 ERA while racking up 8.04 strikeouts per nine innings. That’s a subpar K/9, but it’s a massive improvement from his marks in previous seasons. Where Martinez really excels is limiting the damage on balls in play, with his average exit velocity ranking in the 89th percentile.
That said, what really sets Martinez apart on Friday is his matchup. The Rockies were an absolute tire fire when playing away from Coors Field last season. They ranked 29th in wRC+ vs. right-handers on the road, and they had the seventh-highest strikeout rate in that split. Their lineup for this season is largely unchanged, and even though they scored seven runs on Thursday, there’s no reason to expect much different in 2023.
Quick Hits
Javier leads the slate in K Prediction, but Robbie Ray isn’t too far behind. Ray took a step back in terms of traditional metrics in 2022, but he remains an outstanding strikeout pitcher. He racked up 10.1 strikeouts per nine innings, his seventh straight season in double-digits. He has a subpar matchup vs. the Guardians, who had the 10th-lowest strikeout rate against southpaws last season, but they also struggled to hit in that split. They had just an 84 wRC+ against left-handers, which was the fourth-lowest mark in baseball.
Dustin May has been limited to just 53 innings over the past two years after undergoing Tommy John surgery, but he has as much natural talent as any starter in baseball. He averaged just under 14 strikeouts per nine innings in 2021 before getting shut down, and he looked excellent in Spring Training this season. He racked up 20 strikeouts in 18.1 innings while pitching to a 2.95 ERA. The only thing keeping him from being an elite fantasy starter is that manager Dave Roberts said he will be limited to start the year. Still, five good innings from May could be enough on this slate, and his ownership should be reasonable.
If you’re looking for a cheap SP2 on DraftKings, David Peterson is probably your best bet. The left-hander wasn’t a lock to make the Mets rotation this season, but injuries to Justin Verlander and Jose Quintana have opened the door. Peterson was quietly effective in 2022, posting a 3.83 ERA while averaging 10.73 strikeouts per nine innings. The Marlins ranked dead last in wRC+ vs. southpaws last season, and they also had the highest strikeout rate in that split. Their lineup should be a bit better in both departments this season, but this is still a quality matchup for an underrated starter.
MLB DFS Hitters and Stacks
Notable Stack
With the Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS rosters.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups.
The top DraftKings stack using THE BAT X when optimizing by projected points belongs to the Houston Astros:
The Astros could be slightly undervalued on this slate. They’re currently implied for just 4.2 runs, which is pretty meager considering their price tags. Still, it’s the fourth-highest mark on a slate where not much offense is expected. No team is implied for more than 4.5 runs, so there’s not a lot separating Friday’s squads.
As far as offensive talent goes, you’d be hard-pressed to find a much more impressive lineup than the Astros. They were ninth in runs per game last season and ninth in wRC+ against right-handed pitchers. Their lineup did suffer a huge blow when Jose Altuve went down with an injury in the World Baseball Classic, but the offseason acquisition of Jose Abreu should help a bit.
The Astros will take on Lance Lynn on Friday, who turned in another quality season in 2022. He got off to a shaky start, pitching to a 7.50 ERA over the first half of the year, but that figure dropped to just 2.52 following the All-Star break. However, the Astros are going to be a really tough matchup for him. He relies on a fastball-cutter combination, throwing the two pitches more than 80% of the time last season. The Astros are one of the best teams in the league at hitting four-seam fastballs, and they roughed up Lynn for six earned runs over four innings in their last meeting back in 2021.
The Astros lineup is headlined by Yordan Alvarez, who blossomed into one of the best hitters in baseball last season. If not for Aaron Judge, Alvarez might be the best hitter in baseball. He posted a 185 wRC+ with 37 homers in 2022, and he’s off to a great start with a homer in his first game of the year.
Alvarez is popping in our PrizePicks MLB simulations:
Other MLB DFS Hitter Picks
One of the great features of being a FantasyLabs Pro member is the option to purchase additional items in the FantasyLabs Marketplace.
A new addition to our MLB projections is THE BAT X from Derek Carty of RotoGrinders. With this purchase, you can use his projections alone or create aggregate projections within our Player Models.
For this example, we created a 50/50 blend with THE BAT X and the FantasyLabs projections to pinpoint some hitters that stand out.
Corbin Carroll OF ($3,100 DraftKings, $3,000 FanDuel) Arizona Diamondbacks at Los Angeles Dodgers (Dustin May)
I am all in on Carroll. He entered the year as arguably the top prospect in baseball, combining excellent hitting ability with the best legs in the entire game. Corbin topped the leaderboards in basically every speed metric last season, and he should be a huge beneficiary of the new base-stealing rules this season. He stole 33 bags between the minors and majors last year, and I would be shocked if he didn’t improve on that total this season. Corbin also posted a 130 wRC+ in 32 games with the Diamondbacks last year, and he’s got plenty of pop in his bat. He’s way too cheap at $3,100 on DraftKings, and he owns the third-best projected Plus/Minus in our aggregate projections.
Nelson Cruz OF/1B ($3,800 on DraftKings, $2,500 on FanDuel) San Diego Padres vs. Colorado Rockies (Kyle Freeland)
There’s a chance that Cruz is cooked, but I’m willing to roll the dice at $2,500 on FanDuel. Even in what was a really down year in 2022, Cruz was still able to hit southpaws at a reasonable rate. He went yard five times in 149 at bats against left-handers, and he had five homers in more than double the at bats against traditional pitchers. Freeland isn’t a terrible pitcher – he was much more effective on the road than at Coors Field last season – but it’s impossible to ignore Cruz at $2,500. He leads our MLB Models in projected Plus/Minus on FanDuel.
Miguel Vargas 2B ($2,400 on DraftKings, $2,400 on FanDuel) Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Arizona Diamondbacks (Merrill Kelly)
It seems like the Dodgers churn out a new big-time prospect every year, and Vargas could be that guy in 2023. The No. 48 prospect, per FanGraphs, had a big Spring Training as soon as he was allowed to start swinging the bat, and he has hit at every stop in the minors. He doesn’t provide big power or speed upside, but he’s dirt-cheap at a weak position for one of the best offenses in baseball.
That’s enough to warrant DFS consideration.
