The MLB Breakdown offers data-driven analysis using the FantasyLabs Tools and predictive metrics to highlight notable players.
Friday features a 13-game main slate on both DraftKings and FanDuel starting at 7:05 p.m. ET.
Pitchers
Studs
On FanDuel, there are three pitchers who cost $10,000 or more:
- Justin Verlander (R) $11,000, HOU vs. LAA
- Jacob deGrom (R) $10,700, NYM vs. PHI
- Clayton Kershaw (L) $10,200, LAD vs. SDP
Verlander sits atop the pricing for Friday’s slate, but he’s not someone I’d target in cash games with his matchup against the Angels. Overall, the Angels rank just 17th in team ISO against right-handed pitchers this year, but they rank eighth in wOBA, third in Weighted Runs Created Plus (wRC+), and their projected lineup carries a strikeout rate of just 21%.
Verlander is still a solid tournament option considering the Angels are implied for 3.9 runs and the Astros are sitting with -205 moneyline odds.
For slightly cheaper, I’d prefer deGrom in cash games. The Phillies’ projected lineup has a low 22.1% strikeout rate, but deGrom still leads the slate in K Prediction, and the Phillies’ 3.7 implied run total is the second-lowest mark on the slate. The matchup is slightly more favorable than Verlander’s since the Phillies rank 17th or worse in wOBA, ISO and wRC+ against right-handed pitchers this season.
Credit: Jake Roth-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Jacob deGrom
Furthermore, deGrom enters this game with excellent Statcast data, allowing opposing hitters to average a meager 89-mph exit velocity and incredibly low 21% hard-hit rate over his last two starts. Overall, he leads all pitchers in floor, median and ceiling projections Friday night in our Models.
Kershaw hasn’t been great from a fantasy perspective this season, averaging a -1.54 FanDuel Plus/Minus with a 43% Consistency Rating. However, his matchup against the Padres is intriguing since their projected lineup has a 28.9% strikeout rate and mediocre .306 against lefties over the past 12 months.
That said, there’s still some risk paying for a pitcher who is this expensive and has a suboptimal K Prediction (6.8) and K/9 (8.08). Kershaw is a viable tournament play, but he’s not the best value.
Values
Drew Pomeranz makes for an interesting punt on FanDuel or SP2 option on DraftKings with his 77% Bargain Rating. There’s some risk to him with his 1.72 WHIP over the past year, but his 9.59 K/9 is the fifth-highest mark on the slate. Additionally, the Cardinals’ projected lineup has a high 29.7% strikeout rate and low .262 wOBA against lefties over the past year. Since the Vegas lines were posted, the Giants have seen massive line movement in their favor as they opened as +115 dogs and are now -110 favorites.
Julio Teheran is another viable SP2 option on DraftKings with his 89% Bargain Rating. He’s up against a projected Marlins lineup with a 26.2% strikeout rate and .262 wOBA against right-handed pitchers over the past 12 months. His 6.7 K Prediction is nothing to write home about, but you don’t need much from him at his salary. He should be a decent bet for a win as the Braves are massive -188 moneyline favorites.
Fastballs
Zach Greinke: He’s worth consideration if you find yourself not being able to get to the top-priced pitchers. The Rockies’ projected lineup has a 26.7% strikeout rate against righties, and they rank just 25th in wRC+ against them this season. Additionally, their implied run total is sitting at 3.6, which is tied for the lowest mark on the slate and is a decrease of 0.2 runs since lines were released. Greinke is in solid form, allowing opposing hitters to average a 187-foot average distance and 89-mph exit velocity over his last two starts.
Austin Voth: The matchup against a projected Royals lineup with a 27.1% strikeout rate and .304 wOBA could be a good spot to target Voth if you want to completely punt the position to get to some expensive bats. He carries some risk with just two starts under his belt this year, but the Royals have struggled against righties, ranking 20th in wRC+ and 25th in ISO against them this year.
Notable Stacks
With our Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS lineups. One of the top four-man DraftKings stacks in the CSURAM88 Player Model belongs to the Baltimore Orioles.
- 1. Jonathan Villar (S)
- 2. Dwight Smith Jr. (L)
- 3. Trey Mancini (R)
- 4. Chance Sisco (L)
Total salary: $16,700
The Orioles could be a contrarian stack because, well, they’re the Orioles, and their 5.0 implied run total isn’t nearly as high as some of the other teams out there. However, this stack is reasonably cheap so you could still sprinkle in some of the other bats that are in the higher projected scoring games.
They’ll be up against Aaron Sanchez, who has struggled this season, pitching to a 5.30 xFIP with an abysmal 4.9% K-BB%. The matchup against the righty is good news for Sisco and his 91% Bargain Rating on DraftKings. He’ll be on the positive side of his batting splits, hitting righties to the tune of a .336 wOBA and .294 ISO over the past 12 months. He’s also smashing the baseball over the past two weeks, boasting a 259-foot average distance and 95-mph exit velocity.
Overall, this entire stack will be on the positive side of their splits, and three of the four hitters own ISOs above .200.
One of the top FanDuel stacks in the CSURAM88 Model belongs to the Oakland Athletics.
- 1. Marcus Semien (R)
- 2. Matt Chapman (R)
- 3. Matt Olson (L)
- 4. Khris Davis (R)
Total salary: $14,000
The A’s are implied for a respectable 5.5 runs on Friday and sporting the fifth-highest Team Value Rating in our Vegas Dashboard. They’ll square off against Yusei Kikuchi, who has pitched to a subpar 5.07 xFIP and 8.9% K-BB% this year.
Chapman has shown considerable power against lefties, possessing a .250 ISO against them over the past year. He’s throttled the baseball over the past two weeks with his 235-foot average distance and 94-mph exit velocity. Davis is in terrible batted-ball form right now, but he’s hit lefties to the tune of a .396 wOBA and .329 ISO.
While this stack has hit lefties well, and they have a 5.5 implied run total, they’re projected to be pretty low owned, which isn’t surprising with the number of teams implied for at least 6.0 runs. This could be an effective contrarian stack since the A’s rank inside the top five in ISO, wOBA and wRC+ against lefties this season.
Credit: Stan Szeto-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Matt Chapman
Other Batters
If you’re looking for some salary relief at second base, Brian Dozier leads second basemen on DraftKings with his Projected Plus/Minus and costs just $3,300. Hitting from the No. 7 isn’t ideal, but the Nationals are implied for 6.0 runs against Brad Keller, who has an abysmal 5.08 xFIP and 5.4% K-BB% this year. Keller also enters this game with worrisome Statcast data, allowing hitters to average a 222-foot average distance and 40% hard-hit rate, along with a 40% fly-ball rate over his last two starts. Meanwhile, Dozier is smashing the baseball, evidenced by his 240-foot average distance, 97-mph exit velocity and 50% hard-hit rate. However, since he’s hitting from the near the bottom of the order, I’d reserve him just for tournaments.
Friday is shaping up to be a high-scoring slate with an abundance of high implied run totals spread across the slate. The Braves are among those teams, sporting a 6.0 implied run total at the time of writing. Freddie Freeman leads our floor, median and ceiling projections among first basemen for Friday’s slate, and he’ll be on the positive side of his batting splits, hitting righties to the tune of a .399 wOBA and .222 ISO over the past 12 months.
Max Kepler is projected to hit from the leadoff spot for the Twins, and he would be a good way to gain exposure to the Twins’ 6.1 implied run total. Kepler will be on the positive side of his splits, sporting a .372 wOBA and .280 ISO against right-handed pitchers over the past year. Opposing pitcher, Adrian Sampson has struggled this season, pitching to a 4.84 xFIP with a 14% K-BB%. He’s also allowed a ton of hard contact over his past two starts, allowing hitters to average a 95-mph exit velocity and 54% hard-hit rate. This should be an exploitable spot for Kepler.
If I am building around a hitter on Friday, it’s going to be J.D. Martinez. The Red Sox have an absurd 6.7 implied run total, and Martinez has throttled left-handed pitchers, flaunting a .457 wOBA and .339 ISO. Opposing pitcher, Gregory Soto allowed an abundance of hard contact in his last start, evidenced by his 252-foot average distance, 95-mph exit velocity and 50% hard-hit rate.
Good luck, and be sure to check out The Action Network if you’re looking for more in-depth MLB analysis.
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Pictured above: J.D. Martinez
Photo credit: Nick Turchiaro-USA TODAY Sports
